Georgian army flees in disarray as Russians advance

TimesOnline ^ | August 11, 2008 | Tony Halpin

[brytlea]

Georgia’s army was in complete disarray tonight after troops and tanks fled the city of Gori in panic and abandoned it to the Russians without firing a shot.

As Russian armoured columns rolled deep into central and western Georgia, seizing several towns and a military base, President Saakashvili said his country had been cut in half.

For the first time since the crisis erupted last Thursday, Russia admitted that its troops had moved out of Abkhazia, the other breakaway region under Moscow’s protection, and seized the town of Senaki in Georgia proper.

[omega4179]

The terrain of south georgia looks ideal for waging an afghan/russian war II. Arms can be smuggled in from Turkey and the bordering republics.

[hellbender]

On the other hand the quick collapse of the Georgian military that is US and Israeli trained will have military planners in Washington going back to the drawing board.

The Georgians were probably trained mainly to fight in the WOT, instead of against a huge mechanized force. They are outnumbered and outgunned to a far greater degree than the Poles were in WW2.

[El Gato]

I’m guessing they didn’t want to see too many civilian casualties

I'm guessing they want to shorten their lines. That gives them easier resupply and communications, and more men/machines per mile of "front".

The old rules still apply. Until they don't.

But the only thing that's going to save them is a US air Armada, or at least some outside air support from somewhere. I think they'll be like the guys in the Philippines during the opening days of WW-II, waiting for the Arizona. Only in this case the hardware is still operational, there is just not the will to send it.

[hellbender]

You appear to have swallowed every drop of Putin’s neo-Soviet propaganda. The Russians planned this conquest for months, if not years. They used the so-called South Ossetians as a Trojan Horse. Look at the map. Georgia can’t defend itself with a hostile Russian-occupeid S. Ossetia, any more than Czechoslovakia could defend itself after losing the territories the West told them to surrender to Hitler.

[SevenMinusOne]

+1 -

Georgia, bluntly - F'ed up here - On too many levels - They gave the Russians an excuse - They did not set the table up beforehand - They did not give us a heads-up - Bad, bad choices - Thankfully we still have an adult in charge at the WH -

No good short term answers here (that don't bring huge risks, that bluntly may not be worth it, in the short run). But this POTUS has ice water in his veins and is a true champion of freedom (big picture thinker)......his eye-view on all this is much larger than any of ours.......If the risks are worth it....he'll give the orders......I take solace in knowing this.......Having served under it...

[ETL]

For one thing, they timed this action very carefully...

Yep, right while Putin was meeting with the ChiComs.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (L) is welcomed by Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi (C) at the Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China, Aug. 7, 2008. Putin arrived here Thursday to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games and other events. (Xinhua Photo)
Source: People's Daily Online [ChiCom online newspaper]
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90783/91300/6469151.html

Putin on "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century":
"World democratic opinion has yet to realize the alarming implications of President Vladimir Putin's State of the Union speech on April 25, 2005, in which he said that the collapse of the Soviet Union represented the 'greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.'
http://www.hooverdigest.org/053/beichman.html

From the Sino-Russian Joint Statement of April 23, 1997:
"The two sides [China and Russia] shall, in the spirit of partnership, strive to promote the multipolarization of the world and the establishment of a new international order."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HI29Ag01.html

Russia, China flex muscles in joint war games
Reuters: Aug 17, 2007

CHEBARKUL, Russia (Reuters) - Russia and China staged their biggest joint exercises on Friday but denied this show of military prowess could lead to the formation of a counterweight to NATO.

"Today's exercises are another step towards strengthening the relations between our countries, a step towards strengthening international peace and security, and first and foremost, the security of our peoples," Putin said.

Fighter jets swooped overhead, commandos jumped from helicopters on to rooftops and the boom of artillery shells shook the firing range in Russia's Ural mountains as two of the largest armies in the world were put through their paces.

The exercises take place against a backdrop of mounting rivalry between the West, and Russia and China for influence over Central Asia, a strategic region that has huge oil, gas and mineral resources.

Russia's growing assertiveness is also causing jitters in the West. Putin announced at the firing range that Russia was resuming Soviet-era sorties by its strategic bomber aircraft near NATO airspace.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-29030120070817?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

U.S. Navy Intercepts Russian Bombers Flying Near Ships
Monday, February 11, 2008
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,330362,00.html

From National Public Radio (NPR):
"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been visiting countries such as China, Iran and Russia as part of an effort to build a 'strategic alliance' of interests not beholden to the United States. He considers the United States his arch enemy.":
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5729764

From the Russian News and Information Agency:
"'I am determined to expand relations with Russia,' Chavez, known as an outspoken critic of what he calls the United States' unilateralism, told the Russian leader, adding that his determination stemmed from their shared vision of the global order.":
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060727/51913498.html

From WorldThreats.com:
"Chavez pledged that his country would 'stay by Iran at any time and under any condition,' state television reported. Ahmadinejad said he saw in Chavez a kindred spirit." "'We do not have any limitation in cooperation,' Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying. 'Iran and Venezuela are next to each other and supporters of each other. Chavez is a source of a progressive and revolutionary current in South America and his stance in restricting imperialism is tangible.'":
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/07/29/world/main1847331.shtml

_____________________________________________________

"the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century"-Vladimir Putin (2005) on the so-called 'collapse' of the Evil Empire/Soviet Union
_____________________________________________________

"'The Black Book of Communism,' a scholarly accounting of communism’s crimes, counts about 94 million murdered by the supposed champions of the common man (20 million for the Soviets alone), and some say that number is too low."
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZmY0MjI1MDgyYjg1M2UwNDMzMTk2Mjk5YTk0ZTdlMWE=

[El Gato]

I believe the Georgian forces have arrived back from Iraq today.

All 2000 of them. That's a pretty quick airlift. But then again that's only few C-5 or a few more C-17 loads. Wonder where they landed? Tblisi is where they are needed, but that airfield is under attack.

[SevenMinusOne]

U.S. air assets along with former-fellow-Bear-countries stepping up with direct support (in men and arms). If Georgia is going to survive a shooting war....or prolonged Russian action...

[El Gato]

Russian soldiers are advancing and are in Mtskheta and heading for Tbilis" if that is the case, then they have already forced the passes that lead to the city.

In which case the Georgians have already lost their capital. It just hasn't been occupied yet. They could make that occupation hard on the Russians, and themselves, or retreat yet again. But to where, and for what purpose if no help is on the way.

[brytlea]

Thank you. I wasn’t sure why he took what I said out of context, since I agree with his position.
susie

[Mariner]

"Georgia can’t defend itself with a hostile Russian-occupeid S. Ossetia, any more than Czechoslovakia could defend itself after losing the territories the West told them to surrender"

Georgia could never defend itself from Russia...at least for the last 200 years. It's also apparent they will never be able to do so.

While I have nothing against Georgia, and am NOT a fan of a newly aggressive Russia, I do recognize the FACT that this is clearly within their sphere of influence. They have legitimate security interests in the Caucasus region...to include Chechnya and Azerbaijan.

Only an incursion into Turkey or Iran would cross the threshold of acting outside their historical sphere...and into international (and US) interests.

We have a POLITICAL interest in seeing a cease-fire around agreed borders and that's about it. Short of mutual agreement on borders, we have an interest in avoiding a power vacuum in the Caucasus.

[El Gato]

They need our help.

They certainly need *somebody's* help.

After all, they were there for us when we needed them.

Yes, and we are leaving them swinging in the wind.

I'm ashamed. Prepared to be surprised, but currently pretty down in the mouth.

This is about protecting freedom.

I see it that way as well. Most think it is payback for Billy Jeff's excellent Balkan adventure. I think its the Russian Bear trying to remind all the neighbors that he's the biggest and baddest beast in the neighborhood, and they better toe his line, or feel his claws and jaws.

[El Gato]

Maybe if they are allowed to keep a few hundred of those Stingers they were issued...

Hopefully they were also issued a few hundred Javelins and/or TOWs. Those would make short work of all that Russian armor. Might take more than just "a few" hundred though.

[Raineygoodyear]

Ezekiel 38 and 39 has never yet occurred. Ezekiel 38:1-9 to get an overview of this amazing prophecy.

“The word of the LORD came “Son of man, set your face against Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of a Meshech and Tubal; prophesy against him 3 and say: 16; This is what the Sovereign LORD says: I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of b Meshech and Tubal. 4 I will turn you around, put hooks in your jaws and bring you out with your whole army 12 ;your horses, your horsemen fully armed, and a great horde with large and small shields, all of them brandishing their swords. 5 Persia, Cush c and Put will be with them, all with shields and helmets, 6 also Gomer with all its troops, and Beth Togarmah from the far north with all its troops; the many nations with you.

[ETL]

That is straight out of the Saul Alinsky school, just prior to the instructional pages which explain in detail how to create chaos, disorder, distrust, and destruction to the cutlure at hand in order to acquire power for the 'have nots' wrested by force of community organizing rending from the 'haves'.

Thanks. I meant to eventually add some stuff on Alinsky's influence on the Messiah.

[El Gato]

Beyond that, I don't think there's anything "military" that we can do in Georgia that won't be interpreted by the Russians as an act of war -- and the ugly choice facing the President is whether or not Georgia is worth getting into a serious war over.

Maybe so. But Russian TV and websites are blaming the US, the Turks and just about everyone else they can think of for the "unprovoked" actions of the Georgians.

Talking smack about one of the most powerful nations in the world might be safe, given the circumstances. But then again it might not. What if the Turks, (and the Ukrainians who were also dissed by the Russian state controlled media) who do not take being insulted well, decide to join in? What then? What excuse will we have to not back up our NATO ally?

[Lijahsbubbe]

The Russians will not attack Tblisi, nor will they occurpy any Georgian territory besides the two "disputed" regions in the north.

Their incursions into Georgian territory proper are temporary and meant to neutralize the Georgian military and secure the disputed regions from attack by the Georgians.

I disagree. The Russians are there now. They're not about to leave, why should they? They've gotten away with each act of aggression and nobody's going to stop them. They will occupy Georgia.

[don-o]

Good post.

[MHGinTN]

Turkey, as a NATO ally, is not—within the NATO charter—to enter into war without NATO. Of ocurse we’re talking the Turks who have NEVER given a hoot in Hell what others think or direct. BUT the Turks are not foolish enough to enter into even a limited war with Russia without NATO backing.

[El Gato]

I dont know, but it seems that population newer wanted the offensive on ossetia at the first place.

Of course the Georgian populace didn't want an offensive, people in free countries rarely do. But they didn't care for being shelled from Ossetia either. Especially right after a mutally agreed upon cease fire had occurred.

Includind ARV troops...

Marvin the ARVN stopped the biggest tank atack since WW-II, with help from US Airpower. Then we cut off his supplies and withdrew the air support.

His wife and/or daughter is now working in your local nail salon. Well maybe not yours, but ours anyway.