Still from Threads (1984)
Posted on 08/08/2008 11:24:01 AM PDT by library user
Mighty Russia, population 150m, and tiny Georgia, population 4.6m, its former colony and now fiercely independent neighbour, are in terrible danger of blundering into a bloody and pointless conflict in the Caucasus. It would sorely damage relations between Moscow, the European Union and the US. It could also destabilise the rest of the Caucasus region. Washington and Brussels can urge restraint, but the only country that can stop the nonsense is Russia itself.
The immediate cause of the conflict is a tug-of-war over the secessionist region of South Ossetia, which has been trying to break away from Georgia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is an ethnic patchwork of mountain villages, part-Ossetian and part-Georgian, with just 70,000 inhabitants, divided between pro-Russian and pro-Georgian administrations, and lacking any common identity.
A fragile ceasefire since 1992 has been regularly broken. This week it collapsed again, after a series of bloody skirmishes, with Georgian troops moving in to seize the capital, Tskhinvali, and a column of tanks and troops moving over the Russian border to stop them. Russian aircraft have attacked targets inside the undisputed territory of Georgia, including a radar installation. Both Vladimir Putin, the Russian premier, and Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, have called the confrontation “war”.
Russia has long ceased to pretend to be a neutral referee. It openly espouses the cause of the secessionists there and in Abkhazia, another breakaway enclave. Its actions seem aimed at deliberately destabilising its neighbour. In recent months – especially since Georgia was promised eventual membership of Nato at the alliance’s Bucharest summit in April – Moscow has stepped up its encouragement, reinforcing its troops and trade, as if deliberately taunting Tbilisi and daring its hot-headed president to respond. Now the inevitable has happened.
Mr Saakashvili does not want to take on Moscow. But Mr Putin (and Dmitry Medvedev, his anointed successor) seem to want to prove two things: that Georgia is far too unstable to join Nato, and that they alone can determine the future of the former Soviet space. They are right that neither the US alone, nor the Nato allies, would dream of intervening in a military confrontation. But Georgia is only unstable because of Russian policies. Encouraging secessionists sends a terrible signal to others inside Russia, especially in the rebellious north Caucasus. Moscow’s policy may be macho, but in the long run it will be utterly self-defeating.
ping.
This all may be true but I sure hope we stay out of it. This could explode real quick. I think this is Europes problem.
Unlike in Chechnya, apparently, religion isn’t a big deal in this one—all parties are generally various flavors of Orthodox Christians. This is a territorial dispute with some ethnic understones, at least as I understand it—and who can understand anything, really, in places like the Balkans and the Caucasus? The grudges and ethnic blood feuds there go back hundreds of years. They make the back-and-forth banter around here about the “War of Northern Aggression” look like child’s play.
}:-)4
Sounds just like the kind of thing we generally like to get ourselves in the middle of... ;)
Bad piece of ground for Russia to pick a fight in. Poor road network concentrated in a river valley down to their objective. And their opponents are well armed, trained, and motivated. They still seem to have the same problems as the cold war soviet union, Poor morale, poor logistics, and uneven leadership. Russia may be on the receiving end of a can of whoop a$$. Especially since it’s been reported that they have already lost some aircraft. Not good for them and not good for anybody.
“By the way, I’m curious, is the religion of Peace involved in this conflict?”
Yes, in a way. This is Russia’s response to our support of Kosovo (muslims) declaring independence from Serbia this year.
Russia then set up Georgia to make this attack.
George Bush is naive.
Still from Threads (1984)
There are plenty of `sabre-rattlers’ around today. Following the French and German experiences a saying was coined: ‘Russia is a lot easier to get into than out of.’
We have never fought the Russians/Soviets and the reason is obvious to anyone with a room temperature IQ or higher.
This might be about having 57 declension cases instead of six...
While there are many regions of strategic interests to the United States throughout the world, South Ossetia isn’t one of them.
However, as a postscript, I might—I say, I say—I might just be willin’ to roll the dice on a `War between the States’ II/Redux.
Why, this whole federalism (snort!) rigamorole has gotten entirely—I say, suh—entirely out of hand! Fie and fiddlesticks!
So as far as sabre-rattlin’ goes, why—look at me when I’m talkin’ to ya boy, there you go—ah say, why go all the way `round the world when this heah might be as good a place as any to start a-warrin’ and such. . .
Finland 1940.
I have not seen anyone say we ought to fight the Russians. What most here say is that we should support the Georgians in all other ways necessary, but short of getting involved in the war ourselves. This is their territory that is being invaded. We can offer them support without getting directly involved.
What would we do if all the freakin illegal MExicans rose up and wanted to form a break-away country in the Southwest U.S. I would hope that the memories of one of my favorite Presidents would be invoked - that of President James K. Polk.
In addition, there is only one road leading to Russia from the north that is closed in the winter. There is a wall of mountains between Russia and Georgia running east/west.
I’m sure Russia’s other neighbors are atching closely. And some of them are former Soviet states with nukes...
What former Soviet states with nukes?
Four or five former Soviet states had nukes. I can’t remember their names. They all supposedly gave then up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one kept a few back. Was a big headache for the non-proliferation crowd not so long ago.
Could be wrong, though. Been a while since I read about it all.
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