“We can’t sit back and let Russia just overrun Georgia.” It the Russians try to take over more than Ossetia I would likely agree. If their actions are limited to Ossetia, I’d like to see the stats of who’s been given them more aid. From what I’ve gathered so far, Russia’s been giving them aid while Georgia’s been trying cutting off their electricity. [Not reliable sources yet.] In fact, I read in one [unreliable] place that Georgians were slaughtering random citizens in Ossetia. I don’t want to see another Bubba Bxxb Job like Kosovo.
Agreed. To paraphrase Bismarck: "Ossetia isn't worth the bones of a single American soldier."
That will depend on what the Russians aims are. Do they just want to push the Georgians back from this one province, bloody their nose and send them and the other former satellites a message? Or, will they expand to other provinces and move deeper into georgia with the purpose of deposing the current government and installing their own puppet and then, OBTW, being in defacto control of that oil line?
We can help, and I believe it has to be forthright, but also very measured and careful. IMHO, we should communicate directly, without fanfare but in unmistakable terms that we are serious about providing whatever logistical, material, and G2 support to the Gerogians that we can and that the situation is likely to be extremely costly for the Russians as long as they remain on soveriegn Georgian soil.
We have the satellite and the electronic capability to stand off from Georgia and help in this manner. We have the capability to provide all types of material support in trade.
I do not believe we are prepared or that it would be wise, short of Russians killing American soldiers in Georgia, to put any boots on the ground or combat aircraft in the air.
But I would watch the Ukraine and other satellite states in that regard, because they may provide more support.
This is a message the Russians are sending. it is a message to all the former block states, it is a message to Europe, and it is a message to US.
Part of it is Russian frustration over the move of so many of their former "satellite" states towards NATO and the EU and them not being able to stop it. Part of it is the old Russuan desire for lareg buffers between their soil and any large, capable nation's influence on their borders, another big part of it is oil and that major pipelie that Georgia has crossing it.
I do believe that we have to respond strongly to this message or the Russians will be emboldened on other fronts.
If the Russians bloody the Georgian's nose in that one Provence, push the Georgians back, and then pull back themselves...there is a chance that things can cool down.
But if the Russians expand this to other provinces and keep moving deeper into Gerogia with any aim to depose the Georgian government, install their own puppet, and gain defact contro over that oil, then you will see increasing aid of all sorts going to Georgia from a number of countries to try and prevent that.
It is a very dangerous situation, but one that the Russians have clearly thought out (and were prepared for BTW, the movement of their armor and large numbers of troops didn't happen in a few hours or a couple of days...they have been planning this) and one where they are risking a high stakes military gambit under the auspice of "protecting" their "people" who live in Georgia. Sounds all the world like Hitler and the Sudetenland in 1938 in that regard.
We have to be firm and we have to be measured and careful at the same time...but we do need to respond strongly and with more than words. Words is exactly what Putin is counting on.