Rasmussen: Wisconsin Getting Closer, Obama By Four

Barack Obama's 11-point lead in Wisconsin is now down to four. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama leading John McCain 47% to 43%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, Obama leads 51% to 44%.

Last month, in the first Wisconsin poll conducted since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama was ahead of his Republican opponent 50% to 39%. Obama is supported by 86% of Wisconsin Democrats, McCain by 95% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided.

The Democrat leads by a 2-to-1 margin among voters under 30 while McCain has a seven percentage point advantage among voters over 65.

McCain leads among those earning $40,000 to $75,000 a year. His opponent is ahead among those who earn above that level and below it.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Wisconsin voters, roughly the same number as last month. But Obama is now given favorable marks by 53%, down from 61% in July.

Wisconsin is not only historically pacifist and isolationist (like Iowa and Minnesota), but its rural voters in the western part of the state (Lutherans?) have proven to be far less averse to voting for national Democrats than have white rural voters in any other part of the U.S. (except for those right across the border in Iowa and those in New England). Check out the township map of Wisconsin for the 2004 presidential elections, with towns voting for President Bush in Republican Blue and thse voting for Kerry in Commie Red (in case you can't see it, it's from http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/):

Gore got close due to the last minute DUI release, and it was a tight race.. Kerry may only have been 1 state away, but he was well over 3 million votes away.

Libs have locks on most of the big EC states which makes them show better than they are represented nationally.

Fauxbam-uh will not be polling anywhere near Kerry or Gore on election day. I am not suggesting remotely to not fight hard and like we are losing every day, just saying I see no calculous where this schlub can win.

He’s polled high because he’s a blank slate that folks projected onto... and that play was already ending by the end of the Democratic primaries... through the general election cycle, he will be less and less a blank slate that folks can project whatever they want on, and the more often Fauxbam-uh has to open his mouth and speak without being scripted the further and further he’ll fall... not to mention even with a script the more he has to talk about details of ANY sort, the less he remains the blank slate for blind projections and his numbers will fall.

He peaked already, even among democrats.. and that was before the last big primary votes... he’d need to be up by 15-20 across the board today to have a shot at the WH.. because his numbers will continue to fall, and he’s not, and never was. He hasn’t broken out of statistical dead heat since he became the nominee.. his numbers are flat or falling nationally and in most state polls as well. For crying out loud he’s in a statistical dead heat in MI.. If there was a state he should have locked it should be MI.. between the MUSLIM block there and the general liberal nature of the state.. that state shouldn’t even be in play.

Fight hard against this guy, but as just a political observer, I don’t see any path that lets him get close to the WH.. He should have been washed out in the D primary, but he was able to play the say nothing game long enough and leverage the Anti-Hillary wing of the party to get the nomination... just barely.

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