Posted on 08/06/2008 8:01:13 AM PDT by SE Mom
Since offshore drilling has become a top tier issue in this campaign, I've encountered more than a few readers who hold up the Energy Information Administration report like a protective talisman and declare, "No oil would be produced until 2017! No oil would be produced until 2017!" Obama himself mentioned it in his speech.
As I've noted, that report assumes nothing happens until 2012. Beyond that, offshore drilling skeptics haven't offered anything to refute the report that some California oil deposits could be accessed within one year; probably because refuting it would mean acknowledging it, and it's easier to win the argument when you pretend there's no contrary evidence.
Campaign Spot reader Rick points out another fascinating detail in that EIA report's final paragraph:
Although a significant volume of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources is added in the OCS access case, conversion of those resources to production would require both time and money. In addition, the average field size in the Pacific and Atlantic regions tends to be smaller than the average in the Gulf of Mexico, implying that a significant portion of the additional resource would not be economically attractive to develop at the reference case prices.
In other words, if oil is expensive, these fields will look like good investments; if oil is cheap, building offshore platforms and drilling will look less worthwhile to oil companies.
So what are the reference case prices for EIA's report? You have to look elsewhere on their site to find it:
In the reference case, increased non-OPEC and OPEC supplies are expected to cause a price decline from 2006 levels to under $50 per barrel (2005 dollars) in 2014.
Yesterday oil traded at $119; it peaked at $147 a barrel this year. I suppose it's theoretically possible that without offshore drilling, the price of oil will be cut in half over the next six years while demand from China and India continues to surge. But it sure doesn't look likely. And if oil is more expensive, oil companies will find offshore drilling more worthwhile — bringing more domestic supply sources online, reducing transportation costs, and eventually reducing prices.
The rest of the EIA range in that report is from $34 a barrel (!) to $101 a barrel by 2030.
I'm sure the folks at EIA are fine, fine people who try their best. But predicting future oil prices is difficult even for trained experts. On page 103 of their 2002 edition of their Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA predicted that by 2010, the range of oil prices from $17.64 to $30.44 per barrel. We're pretty close to that date, and again, a drop from today's $120 or so to $30 a barrel in the next two years just doesn't seem likely.
The EIA report is one assessment from an agency whose predictions have proven considerably flawed at best, and at worst, was completely blindsided the oil price explosion of recent years. It shouldn't be held up as the final word on why offshore drilling is a bad idea.
08/06 10:09 AM
There are some very pertinent and timely facts in this piece.
Obamaidiocy ping
Right now, as we speak, the House GOP members are on TV showing real leadership to try to get a recall on Congress to VOTE on drilling before the conventions next month. How does Pelosi expect to stay in power with more than 780% of the country against her opinions on energy?????
It won’t matter one bit to the MSM. But we can help spread it around nonetheless. Rush should jump on this.
Yep- I’ve sent it to his email box..
Rat strategy is to lie about anything and everything to further their goals, knowing that the MSM will very seldom challenge them.
When periodically confronted they’ll stick to the lie, never admit their falsehoods and accuse or redirect the subject to something else.
The lie will stand as fact to the uncaring, brainwashed sheeple.
Here’s the EIA report referenced in Geraghty’s piece:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html
Gads......Why does this not surprise me?
Thanks for the ping. Hope this timely FACT makes the rounds today!
“2017”? 2018, 2019, 2020........Democrats will never get the oil until they start drilling. Where is Obamas birth certificate. Is he a citizen or not??????????????
Those who similarly hold up the EIA talisman on FR are regarded as the gurus, wisemen, and oil wizards speaking from the burning bush.
The entire Obama campaign is counting on the MSM and the voting public not doing any research to vet its claims!
His whole persona is based on this approach. Unfortunately, it seems to be working.
Here’s Geraghty’s piece on this from yesterday:
Picking Apart Obama’s Energy Speech
This EIA report that, when calculating the time it would take for oil from domestic sources reaches the market, presumes that nothing happens in terms of exploration until 2012 is getting cited quite often. Obama, yesterday:
George Bush’s own Energy Department has said that if we opened up new areas to drilling today, we wouldn’t see a single drop of oil for seven years. Seven years.
Obama’s speech yesterday was terribly defensive, with two major policy reversals. Mark Impomeni notes that Obama is touting a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which he calculates would provide each licensed driver with about 40 percent of a tank of gas... when he had previous argued that McCain’s proposal for a gas tax holiday was a “gimmick” because it would only save consumers about “half a tank of gas over the course of the entire summer.”
Half a tank is a gimmick, but 40 percent of a tank is a “genuine way in which we can provide some short-term relief from high gas prices.”
Obama continues:
“Even Texas oilman Boone Pickens, who’s calling for major new investments in alternative energy, has said, “this is one emergency we can’t drill our way out of.”
T. Boone Pickens also believes the U.S. should drill offshore on both coasts and ANWR, declaring, “You’re drilling and whatever you are able to find and put into the domestic system will help us.” Let me guess, he’s an expert when he agrees with you, but a fool when he disagrees. Everyone does this to a certain extent, but Obama should avoid the “even T. Boone Pickens” line unless he’s willing to concede Pickens might not have such a selective area of expertise and judgment.
“But we should start by telling the oil companies to drill on the 68 million acres they currently have access to but haven’t touched.”
This argument makes perfect sense if you believe that oil is perfectly evenly distributed across every acre off U.S. shores. If some acres have lots of oil, and some have none, suddenly the oil companies’ decision to not drill in some places makes more sense.
“And if they don’t, we should require them to give up their leases to someone who will.”
If oil companies won’t drill on those 68 million acres, we’ll give those leases to... who? Who besides oil companies will drill for oil?
08/05 09:49 AM
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDM5NTk5MjgzOTMzZjFkODQ1NWMxNThmMDY0MjkzMmU=
You’re right- but there are cracks in the facade of Obama and it’s up to us to keep up the pressure.
The CIA of the oil world. And Pelosi wants us to let Washington solve our problems.
Washington may have perfected the inefficiency of socialist institutions without actually becoming fully socialist.
ANWAR could also be quickly tapped as the technology of safely drilling in arctic conditions was mastered when Alaskan oil was first tapped some 30 years ago and the Alaskan pipeline is already in place to transport crude to tankers at Valdez.
“T. Boone Pickens also believes the U.S. should drill offshore on both coasts and ANWR, declaring, “You’re drilling and whatever you are able to find and put into the domestic system will help us.” Let me guess, he’s an expert when he agrees with you, but a fool when he disagrees.”
HECK....EVEN PARIS HILTON ‘GETS IT’ AND KNOWS WE SHOULD DRILL!!...LOL
BTTT
This is all so infuriating. After 9/11 I always wondered why it wasn’t a TOP PRIORITY of our government to start domestic energy production.
I mean come ON, Saudi Arabia?
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