Skip to comments.
Michael Barone: Was Obama’s Bounce a Bubble? - Polls continue to show an unstable...
National Review Online ^
| August 02, 2008
| Michael Barone
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:03:24 AM PDT by neverdem
August 02, 2008, 0:00 a.m.
Was Obamas Bounce a Bubble? Polls continue to show an unstable presidential campaign.
By Michael Barone
Just when you think you’ve got the presidential race figured out, something comes along to upend your carefully wrought conclusions.
Mainstream media provided lavish coverage of Barack Obama’s trip abroad the week of July 21–25 and predicted he would get a bounce in the polls. Some of his supporters believe he has put the election away. Other observers employ the hackneyed and meaningless phrase, “It’s his to lose.”
The poll numbers tell a different and more nuanced story. The two national tracking polls showed Obama getting a bounce while he was in Europe, especially after his speech before 200,000 or so Berliners in the Tiergarten. Gallup showed him rising from a 46–42 percent lead on July 22 to a 49–40 percent lead on July 26. The Rasmussen tracking poll showed him rising from a 47–45 percent lead on July 23 (reflecting the previous days’ polling) to 49–43 percent bulge on July 26.
But over the next several days, Obama bounced back down. Gallup showed him leading by a statistically insignificant 45–44 percent as of July 31. That’s the closest the race has been in Gallup all that month. Rasmussen had him down to 48–46 percent on the same day. The world tour bounce has begun to look like a bubble.
Obama may have gotten some lasting benefits from the trip. He can now say that he has been in Afghanistan and that he has visited Iraq for the first time since January 2006. Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki’s seeming acceptance of Obama’s withdrawal timetable may have undermined John McCain’s argument that an Obama presidency could lead to disaster there. And there are a substantial number of American voters who will be attracted by a candidate who seems to pass what John Kerry in 2004 called a “global test.”
Still, the basic dynamics of the race haven’t changed. Obama appears to have a small lead. But he doesn’t come close to maximizing the Democratic vote. And there is some evidence that the balance of enthusiasm has shifted and that young people — who seemed to turn out and vote for Obama in unusually high numbers in the primaries and caucuses — are no long so enthusiastic about him.
The first bit of evidence comes from the July 10–13 ABC/Washington Post poll. It asked registered voters if they were “certain” to vote. Only 46 percent of voters under 30 said they were — substantially lower than the 66 percent who said so in the ABC/Washington Post poll taken Feb. 28–March 2, at a time when Obama was enjoying a string of primary and caucus victories and before the sermons of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright were circulated on youtube.com on March 13. The 46 percent of young voters who said in July they were certain to vote was far lower than the 79 percent of 65-and-over voters who said the same.
The second bit of evidence comes from the Gallup/USAToday poll taken July 25-27. This poll showed that when you narrowed the base of respondents down from registered voters to likely voters, John McCain was ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. That’s a vivid contrast from the contemporaneous Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, and it was the first national poll since May showing McCain ahead.
The Gallup/USAT poll employs an unusual technique to decide who is a likely voter, and accordingly its results tend to vary more widely than other polls; political insiders tend to take its numbers seriously less as an indication of where the race is than as an indication of which candidate is benefiting, at least for a moment, from the balance of enthusiasm.
For most of this year, the balance of enthusiasm has been in favor of Democrats and Obama. Turnout in Democratic primaries was about 50 percent higher than in Republican primaries while both parties’ nominations were seriously contested; Democrats generally and Obama in particular have raised far more money than Republicans; McCain voters have typically expressed less enthusiasm for their candidate than Obama voters have for theirs.
These poll results suggest that something — the rantings of the Rev. Wright or Obama’s skinbacks on issues like Iraq and terrorist surveillance — has dampened enthusiasm for him, particularly among the young. The hope that his candidacy would benefit from a historically unprecedented turnout of young voters seems more audacious than it did a short time ago.
Nothing about an election is harder to predict than turnout, and experience shows that the balance of enthusiasm can change abruptly and in unpredicted ways. The poll numbers examined here are of course not the final word, or anything close to it, and this campaign could take many twists and turns before it is over. But you could do worse than expected the unexpected.
— Michael Barone is a nationally syndicated columnist.
© 2008 CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.
|
|
TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; barone; electionpresident; elections; michaelbarone; nobama08; obama; obamasbigadventure; obamavisit
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-33 last
To: lt.america
Out in South California we call it the Bradley Effect. Talk about voting for a black man at the parties and to the pollsters but pull the lever for the other guy in the booth.
There are lots of really good reasons to not vote Obama. Race should not be a factor—ideas and political stands are what I vote for. Where does Obama Stand? Who Knows?
To: umgud
This is how it is shaping up:
McCain wins all the Bush states from 2004:
-minus one of the following:
Colorado, Iowa, or Virginia
-plus 4 of the following:
PA, MI, WI, MN, ME, NH, NJ, CT, MA
22
posted on
08/02/2008 12:36:55 PM PDT
by
RockinRight
(I just paid $63 for gas. An icefield in Alaska is NOT the Grand Canyon. F--- the caribou.)
To: neverdem
The hope that his candidacy would benefit from a historically unprecedented turnout of young voters seems more audacious than it did a short time ago.I like Michael Barone.
To: RockinRight
Do you honestly think McCain has a chance in PA?
24
posted on
08/02/2008 12:40:04 PM PDT
by
airborne
(Don't hate me because I'm white!)
To: Transformers
Big difference between SS Nazis and the common German man drafted to fight.Not to the Americans who died on European soil.
25
posted on
08/02/2008 12:43:00 PM PDT
by
airborne
(Don't hate me because I'm white!)
To: airborne
Yes. Here’s why:
In 2004, it was damn close. Obama will do slightly better than Kerry in the cities.
However, McCain will do a LOT better than Bush did in the rural areas and suburbs.
Enough to tip it to McCain.
26
posted on
08/02/2008 12:44:36 PM PDT
by
RockinRight
(I just paid $63 for gas. An icefield in Alaska is NOT the Grand Canyon. F--- the caribou.)
To: RockinRight
I’m hoping it will be a rout one way or the other, so I don’t actually have to vote for McCain.
If it’s close, I’ll hold my nose.
But I’d rather not have to.
27
posted on
08/02/2008 12:50:44 PM PDT
by
airborne
(Don't hate me because I'm white!)
To: neverdem
If McCain would make Gingrich VP, or at least an aid, and set him on organizing another 10 point plan, for energy and manufacturing, and worked on the Senate and House election campaigns in tandem...
To: avacado
The tower where obama spoke was Hitlers favorite monument..
And his advance team already made one whopping gaffe in Berlin. Dissuaded from having him speak in front of the Brandenburg Gate, Obamas staff picked a nearby alternate site: the Victory Column. Oops: The victories that commemorates are Prussias successful invasions of Denmark, Austria and France. Its no symbol of European unity - and the French and Brits were already miffed that Obama gave precedence to the Germans on this trip.
Worse, the monument was a favorite of Hitlers - incorporated into his plans to rebuild Berlin according to the vision of Nazi architect Albert Speer. Hitler ordered the column moved to its present location.
29
posted on
08/02/2008 1:55:09 PM PDT
by
edzo4
To: proud okie
McCain winning is not good news, but it could be a whole lot worse considering the options.
Exactamundo.
30
posted on
08/02/2008 2:02:43 PM PDT
by
Canedawg
To: karnage
To: avacado
I hear what you’re saying and agree. It just gets old hearing people constantly slamming down on Germans and here it is, 2008.
To: airborne
Airborne...All the Way...means we cannot HOPE, we must Act...to have this loathsome communist in the White House along with the sleepovers and his Hate filled dims...we must ...Stand in the Door! Vote like your life depends on the Parachute!!! McCain will give us a freer America
5TH SF
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-33 last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson