MILITARY: General says victory 'all but won' in Anbar

NC Times ^ | August 1, 2008 | Mark Walker

[jazusamo]

Camp Pendleton commander backs cut in Marine forces in western Iraq

Camp Pendleton's Maj. Gen. John Kelly said Friday that the military is on the verge on victory in Iraq's once rebellious Anbar province.

"We have all but won this thing when they once said that was impossible," Kelly said during a telephone interview with the North County Times from his headquarters in the city of Fallujah, once a flash point in the battle against the insurgency. "The rest of the country is now following Anbar's lead."

The two-star general was deliberately cautious about declaring outright victory, stressing that work remains to solidify security in the region, which intelligence officials said could never be tamed.

Kelly, the commander of the I Marine Expeditionary Force Forward, said increased stability has led him to recommend troop cuts that could see thousands come home and not face future deployments to Iraq.

"It's still dangerous," Kelly said of the province where the temperature on Friday neared 120 and a sandstorm was raging. "But the Marines and sailors that have served here have done an outstanding job."

While he declined to provide the specific size of his recommended troop reduction in the sprawling area that borders Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan, Kelly said the number of troops has already been cut from 37,500 in March to about 25,000.

"It ranges from tiny to big, and it will be event-driven," he said. "But I am saying we no longer need some of these guys."

Kelly's comments echoed statements made by President Bush on Thursday, who said he expects to cut the countrywide U.S. force of 140,000 before he leaves office.

The general's recommendations go to the Pentagon brass, which includes his boss, Camp Pendleton's Lt. Gen. Samuel Helland, head of Marine Corps forces throughout the Middle East.

Many of the Marines and sailors now in Anbar are from Camp Pendleton and Miramar Marine Corps Air Station. And many of the units that have been serving there since the start of the year are returning as their seven-month assignment ends. That includes a 250-troop force from the 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing at Miramar scheduled to return home on Sunday.

Kelly, who has two sons in the Marines, including one in Iraq, repeatedly referred to his forces as being able to "throttle back," or reduce operations as the Iraqi army and police forces grow in number and ability.

Two Iraqi national army divisions in Anbar are now fully "stood up," and the province the size of North Carolina west of Baghdad has seen its police forces swell from about 5,000 three years ago to about 28,000 today.

Kelly, whom tribal leaders refer to as "sheik of the sheiks of the Marine Corps," said he has transferred security responsibility in the cities to the police forces, which have been trained by civilian U.S. specialists and backed up by Marine squads embedded with them at their stations.

In the areas immediately outside the cities, Kelly said the Iraqi national army is now responsible for security.

"Further out," the Boston native said, "the Marine Corps still owns the battle space and our infantry guys are still doing combat operations all the time. The difference is we aren't getting shot at as much."

Other factors underscoring the growing stability include a sharp drop in the number of roadside bomb and small-arms attacks. Bomb attacks now range between 10 and 14 per week with the discovery of unexploded bombs included in the total.

"We haven't had an IED attack directed at coalition forces in three weeks," Kelly said. "The remaining al-Qaida cells are now targeting Iraqi security and army forces."

Just how soon U.S. forces might be to leave Anbar altogether is unclear. But the military will soon shut down some of its larger bases, Kelly said, including Camp Fallujah. It also is reducing the number of troops at nearby Al Taqaddum Airbase and has turned over bases in the cities of Ramadi and Habbaniya to the Iraqi army.

Military leaders and observers credit the improvements in Anbar to Sunni tribal leaders turning away from the insurgency at the cajoling of U.S. commanders, who relied on force, persuasion and cash to accomplish their goals. Indiscriminate attacks that included Sunni victims aided in the rejection of the insurgency.

The U.S. also spent hundreds of millions in Anbar on public utility projects that have helped win over the population.

With violence down, commanders such as Kelly now concentrate on solidifying ties with the dominant Sunni population while continuing to train and mentor the Iraqi police and army forces.

The region's more than 1.2 million people mostly live in cities such as Fallujah, Ramadi, Haditha, Hit and al Qaim. Many of the cities were once insurgent strongholds before the "Awakening" that started the rejection of the insurgency and al-Qaida foreign fighters in late 2006.

Kelly said the military also is ramping down its presence in the more populous regions, and he noted that Iraqis and U.S. forces now share the roads equally whereas the military previously required the local population to give way to military vehicles.

John Pike, founder and director of the defense monitoring group Globalsecurity.org in Washington, said he believes Kelly's Anbar outlook is correct.

"It's still possible this thing could go in the ditch, but when you look at the fatality counts, July is probably as close to being able to declare victory as one can get," Pike said in reference to only 11 U.S. troop deaths countrywide last month. "The problem that remains (in Anbar) is that various armed factions are going to want to test things once there is a significant troop drawdown."

[jazusamo]

I don’t know from the way it’s worded but you’ld think we’d offer it to them.

[AprilfromTexas]

actually, it’s the USO and some very dedicated veterans who served in Vietnam who plan their reception to the detail...I just show up with a few attractive girlfriends. Often they will tear up, hug us, thank us and comment on how nice we smell...they’re my heroes.

[freema]

That’s good to hear.