Posted on 07/28/2008 4:23:35 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 227 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 311 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 233.21 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
“Then John McCain should get 233.21 Electoral Votes.”
He has moved up ever so slightly.
If we can flip VA, CO, and OH to McCain, then it is
269-269.
Maybe Nebraska and Maine which ARE NOT WINNER TAKE ALL decide it.
... and isn’t Intrade European? Or not-American?
It has been a good week for McCain.
He made decent gains in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire within the past week.
I answered my own question ... Intrade is Irish.
Ouch.
I find it very hard to believe that VA and PA are going to obama.
In 2004, wasn't there a ballot measure in Colorado to distribute future electoral votes based on voting in each Congressional district?
Did that pass or fail?
Bush won VA by +220,000 in 2000 +316,000 in 2004.
Colorado was up for Bush in both.
NM is still a swing state.
Bush took Ohio by 165,000 in 2000 and 136,000 in 2004.
He averaged winning Nevada in both races by 23,000.
With CO, NV, VA and OH (more than likely to stay in GOP column) McCain wins 274-264.
Throw in New Mexico (next door neighbor help?) and even Wisconsin (which Bush barely lost in 2000 and 2004) and you can swing another 15 electoral votes.
In the recent past, most American credit cards would not allow transactions with Internet betting sites.
Is that still the case?
As I recall, there is no law to that effect, but the threat of Congressional action motivated the card companies to block out gambling.
If only a small minority of the election bettors are Americans, might that seriously impair the accuracy of these “cash polls.”
I mean, if you live in the UK and get all your news from the BBC and CNN International, you haven't heard a kind word about Republicans for at least 30 years.
Thanks for the pings.
I opened a forum topic at Intrade’s board to discuss the Obama Birth Certificate kerfluffle & see if it affects the Intrade price. There’s been a lot of activity on the forum, over 2700 click-thrus, and the price is unchanged.
Possibly Forged Obama Birth Certificate
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2279.page
Is that still the case?
That is a very good question. I do not know the answer.
Will he ever have to give up the original for there to be no doubts. Not bloody likely.
John Kerry never gave up his complete records. Can’t remember what they were but he never did as far as I know.
The difference between Kerry’s discharge records, Clinton’s medical records and Obama’s birth records are that only one of them has any bearing on eligibility: birth records. I know that in today’s political climate, it isn’t likely that a court would have the cojones to hold up the constitution, but the law is clear. Kerry & Clinton could stonewall & get away with it because it was not a constitutional requirement. Obama’s story may be different.
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
| 14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
| 21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
| 28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
| 4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
| 11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
| 18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
| 25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
| 3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
| 10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
| 17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
| 24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
| 31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
| 7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
| 14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
| 21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
| 28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
| 5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
| 12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
| 19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
| 26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
| 2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
| 9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
| 16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
| 23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
| 30-Jun | 234.84 | 16.21% |
| 14-Jul | 237.43 | 19.14% |
| 21-Jul | 231.61 | 14.15% |
| 28-Jul | 233.21 | 15.18% |
For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 28-July are: GOP Electoral Votes = 230.98, Probability of 270 = 2.46%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1.25% reduction in Obama polling and a 1.25% increase in McCain polling results in an additional 30 electoral votes for McCain.
-PJ
it failed
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