Posted on 07/26/2008 2:09:14 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
When the Obama camp announced that it was going to make a play for North Dakota, a lot of people scoffed. I, for one, was skeptical.
But then we all started taking a look at the ROI — the fact that the Obama camp could throw relative pennies at the state and win enough votes to make it competitive — and started thinking that maybe it was a smart choice to at the very least annoy McCain there.
Well, now the polls are suggesting that maybe the Obama team was on to something.
A new Research 2000 poll released today shows McCain leading by only three points, 45-42%. This one poll by itself wouldn’t convince me of much, but I’ve noticed a couple of other surprising facts about North Dakota this week.
First, Michael Barone identified it as the state with the third highest percentage of voters under 30. Secondly, Joel Kotkin noted in his NewGeography.com column today that Bismarck is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, and is experiencing a economic boom fueled by soaring demand for energy.
Good economy. Young voters. Sounds like a recipe for Obama support.
Throw that in with the fact that North Dakota is overwhelmingly white — Obama does better with white voters in states with fewer minorities — and the fact that it’s populated by Germanic and Scandinavian descendants, which are demographic groups that are often fans of post-partisans appeals, and you’ve got a state within reach for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at theelectoralmap.com ...
Two polls (Rasmussen and Research 2000) have it close in North Dakota. It’s odd, with several states normally safe for both parties being potentially competitive.
I tend to agree with one of the comments left on the original site. Its probably less a case of Obama running well, but of McCain’s moderate stances still turning off a lot of conservative voters.
The only way the emperof the world will win North Dakota will be import a bunch of bums from Minnesota to vote. ND is real proud of its military and veterans. They identify with McCain. The ranchers in this state have a well tuned bs meter so largely rule them out for the Obamanation. I doubt the oil patch will vote for him so what else is left?
Obama’s stance on drilling will not sit well with the people and the opening of the Bakken field.
McCain needs to hammer home the fact that we need to drill more
We need to remember that, at this point in the campaign, the rat is usually 15 points ahead of the republican. Anyone remember President Dukakis? He was beating Bush Sr. by 15 points at this point in the campaign.
Today, obama is effectively tied with McCain across the nation. If obamas loses 15 points support by November, we’re looking at a landslide for Mr. McCain.
What’s going on ND, I believe, is that the liberals are writing fairy tales and breaking wishbones their way.
If you are going to drag up that comparison, here is another for you: in 1996, the traders market for this week predicted the final electoral map. This year’s has Obama with 311 electoral votes, not including North Dakota.
Do you have a link to prove that?
Explanation:
Farm Bill Boondoggle: Obama yes, McCain no.
Ethanol program: Obama a big yes, Mccain a hazy no.
This is a North Dakota political blog, I guess their biggest. Thought I’d put it up here in case anyone wants to ‘talk’ to them.
Most of the comments I see are conservative, have to wonder about the polls.
You bums voted Senator Conrad back into the Senate even after he was caught taking bribes from the Chinese during the 90's.
Let me see if I can find it... it has been a busy week.
It HAS been a busy week. I brain farted and did Clinton/Dole when I meant the 2004 race:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2049016/posts
compared to
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1174084/posts
Uh, Bush won 286 electoral votes in 2004.
Not surprising — by this time in 1996 the race was essentially over. The only thing I can’t remember is if Dole had fallen off the stage yet at this point. I think he had.
Good observation. The similarities are eerie. Old war hero going up against the young kid. McCain is running on his resume. The problem is that the majority of people could care less. They don’t want to elect a 72 year old computer illiterate to be leading us into the 21st century.
I think the intrade stuff is pretty inaccurate except right at the election. And I think it is easily manipulated by people to build up support for their candidates.
You are talking all about people’s perceptions, and an election is a very emotional event. You drive the market, and then you can sell out when the suckers are drawn in. Or since so many people are tracking the markets, it sets the perception just like polls do, only it’s easier to manipulate in-trade than it is a good opinion poll.
I will note that the election is a single event in November. But you have intrade values for every day, and if you look at them, they are different every day.
Since the event will have a specific, identifiable outcome, we can only conclude that almost EVERY day intrade is WRONG. Maybe there are days when it will be right. but there will be more days when it is wrong.
When it’s all done, we can look back and figure out which days it was right. But it won’t mean anything.
It’s not odd, it’s a disinformation campaign; the pollsters are “stirring” things up to Obama’s benefit. Same story, different day. They will walk a tight rope showing Obama ahead nationally to discourage Republican voters in the hopes they’ll stay home. Locally, in States that might be close or where they hope to win, they will report a “tight” race to turn out their manic base. Move on, nothing new here.
My hope is that all of those kids in a pretty conservative state aren’t that stupid to begin with. If they’re dumb enough to actually vote for Obama in North Dakota, of all places, and its not just voter dissatisfaction with McCain, we’ve got bigger problems than we realize.
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