The Myth of a Toss-Up Election

Rasmussen Reports ^ | Friday, July 25, 2008 | Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato

[basil]

In their dreams......

[tsmith130]

Signs of Barack Obama's weaknesses allegedly abound.

Allegedly?!? I stopped reading after that sentence.

[kcm.org]

what if they gave an election and nobody voted???

[Perdogg]

Larry J. Sabato is an asshat.

[tbpiper]

an utter collapse of the Obama candidacy

Comming soon.

[KansasGirl]

Well, there you have it. I’m just going to take my ball and go home.

[normy]

In order to defeat Barack Obama, John McCain will have to convince a lot of currently disgruntled Republicans to turn out and vote for him

Barak Hussein Obama will do that for him.

Obama actually lost the popular vote for the Dem nomination to Hillary.

Obamas negatives: Inexperience

Unwillingness to be challenged and failure to respond properly when challenged.

Muslim youth

Muslim name

America's enemies major enemies have similar Muslim names.

Same Dem policies that have only elected one Dem by popular vote since LBJ.

[norraad]

..well he’ll have to do more than stand in front of cheese looking confused.

[centurion316]

No doubt that this represents the conventional wisdom among the chattering class. But, I wonder if they are cherry-picking their historic examples. No mention here of Dukakis and his wide lead that mysteriously collapsed. Ditto Mondale and Carter, who nonetheless managed to eke out a win. I think that history tells us that far left candidates generate much more enthusiasm during the campaign than the are able to realize on election day.

On the other hand, McCain certainly looks alot like Bob Dole and we all now how that turned out. So, is Barack Obama another Bill Clinton, or is he a Michael Dukakis. Lately, he’s been acting more like a Dukakis.

[glide625]

In my opinion, that’s the most important question of this election. If Obama wins without a mandate, what does that say about the country as a whole? Or does it say more about the loss of a vibrant base of the Repub party? If Obama wins, many will get “change” they won’t like. Would it matter to Obama and his administration and his supporters in Congress that a low turnout might signal a significant falling away of support for the Government as an institution?

[normy]

Maybe but maybe not. Do you vote for the guy that is confused by cheese or the guy who will cut your head off.

[goldstategop]

Liberals trying to convince themselves the polls are lying and Obama is going to win by a landslide. They live in their own little universe!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[andy58-in-nh]

Here we have Democrat pollsters attempting to demoralize the opposition. The truth is that they are scared to death. They have backed a candidate that many people are just learning about for themselves (not through the fawning eyes and drooling lips of the media) and they are not all that impressed with what they see.

The Democrats have selected a candidate who is not only the most liberal Senator in America, but one who is vain, shallow, pompous, and inexperienced. The media may swoon over Elvis Obama's European Tour, but many Americans do not appreciate having a presumptuous neophyte apologize to foreigners for America's not being perfect.

[econjack]

These are all good points. However, to date, the GOP has done almost nothing with any of them. The GOP continues to play nice guy, thinking that's going to win votes in the long run. As Keynes said: “We're all dead in the long run.”

It's time to take off the gloves, start kicking a$$ and taking names. Point to Queen Pelosi and Jester Reid and tell the American public they are blocking relief at the pump. Until I see some guts coming from the GOP, they'll not get a dime from me.

[Perdogg]

This is all you need to know about Larry J Sabato:

"He was classmates at the University of Virginia with former Senator George Allen. Sabato was the subject of controversy in 2006 when he appeared on MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews and said that he knew Allen had used the word nigger, but later admitted to the Hampton Roads Daily Press that he had never heard Allen say the word himself."

[xzins]

John McCain now leads Obama in Ohio by 6 points. This is a bit of a turn-around. People are seeing things in Obama now that they didn’t know about before.

As the word gets out, they stop supporting Obama.

If McCain wins Ohio, he will most likely win the election. If he wins Ohio and Michigan, he will certainly win the election.

[goldstategop]

Agreed. If Obama is such a great candidate, how come he can't capitalize on his media support to get a big bounce in the polls?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[MrB]

In every election that I can remember paying attention to,

the conservative presidential candidate was far behind in the months leading up to the election.

The actual results on election day were always more favorable to the conservative than the polls indicated.

[pgyanke]

No mention here of Dukakis and his wide lead that mysteriously collapsed. Ditto Mondale and Carter, who nonetheless managed to eke out a win.

Interesting examples... all from the "media age." It reinforces my perception of these early polls as a means to demoralize the enemy. When the election gets closer, they have to adjust closer to reality to maintain credibility.