A 41%-40% split implies 19% are either undecided or going with 3rd party candidates. That strikes me as a pretty high number of people rejecting the establishment parties. Does anyone have a feel for whether this is the historical norm at this point in an election cycle, or whether it forebodes a significant showing for 3rd parties in November? (Or just plain lousy turnout.)
The general consensus is that both parties have about 40% of the voting populace as supporters. The twenty percent in the middle is generally what folks try to pull from, in order to win.
That 40% does shrink in some elections. I think it’s still a good rule of thumb to go by.
Then you’ll get your occasional Reagan, and that 40% on the Dem side will shrink to around 35% in some instances. It works the other way too.