It's a factual view. I've been deeply involved in running large scale get out the vote efforts in the past. Turnout is everything in the close, downscale elections. For example, 2006 was not nearly as bad as it could have been because we had great turnout in conservative precincts across the nation. After the election, I calculated that the conservative turnout had probably saved us 15-30 seats in the house. That in an otherwise very bad year for republicans.
It's every bit as bad climate-wise this year as 2006. But we have three huge additional factors.
First, at best, we're going to get conservatives to hold their noses and vote for McCain. Getting them out of their houses on election day is going to be much harder than two years ago. Those who just don't find the time to vote (and it will be some percentage, probably not too big) will also not be voting in down-ticket elections.
Second, McCain's natural base, the independents, are ticket splitters. So if McCain turns out more independents, that doesn't help the down ticket.
Third, BO is going to turn out voters who would never vote in a normal election. They will all vote democrat downticket.
Sometimes the facts are dismal. That's why I'm a conservative. I try to see the world as it is; not as I wish it were.
Take it to the bank. Without a huge shift in the overall climate, it's a down ticket slaughter this year. With a huge shift, its still not good because of the three add-on factors. That will turn a lot of close races to the bad guys. The composition of congress is determined in the close (+- 3 pt) races. Between 5 and 10% of the house races will be close. That's 20-40 seats that will be close and we are already starting in the hole in races that should be close, but aren't. You do the math.
Schaffer in CO is one of our few bright spots in open Senate seats. We can take Udall's negatives way up and Bob might take it. Bob shouldn't be this close, given the millions spent on really nasty ads by the rats already.
As for your contention that Romney would be no different; factors one and two change a lot with Romney at the top. That would tip some close elections our way.
Great post! I, too, get tired of the wishful thinking that passes for analysis around here. There is no reason to think November won’t be a downticket slaughter the likes of which the Republicans haven’t seen in a long time, if ever. That’s the unvarnished, objective truth based on ALL the signs currently out there. If conservatives won’t speak the truth even when it hurts, who will?
You’ve done GOTV. Do you think Obama’s really going to get out the youth vote? I don’t think he’ll have any trouble with the black vote. I think they’ll crawl over broken glass for him, and I’ve heard there’s a huge effort to get people registered in minority neighborhoods in swing states. I’m concerned that a lot of the black vote and a lot of the youth vote isn’t pollable (only on cells, won’t answer polls, etc.) so IF, big if, Obama can get out the youth vote in swing states, the Pubbies may never see the tsunami coming in November.