Great post! I, too, get tired of the wishful thinking that passes for analysis around here. There is no reason to think November won’t be a downticket slaughter the likes of which the Republicans haven’t seen in a long time, if ever. That’s the unvarnished, objective truth based on ALL the signs currently out there. If conservatives won’t speak the truth even when it hurts, who will?
You’ve done GOTV. Do you think Obama’s really going to get out the youth vote? I don’t think he’ll have any trouble with the black vote. I think they’ll crawl over broken glass for him, and I’ve heard there’s a huge effort to get people registered in minority neighborhoods in swing states. I’m concerned that a lot of the black vote and a lot of the youth vote isn’t pollable (only on cells, won’t answer polls, etc.) so IF, big if, Obama can get out the youth vote in swing states, the Pubbies may never see the tsunami coming in November.
He's going to increase it. It won't be like the black vote, which will be huge. But 2% here and 2% there and the close races start dropping like flies.