Posted on 07/21/2008 1:06:30 PM PDT by knighthawk
'The war in Iraq is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won."
When I wrote this on my Web site a few days ago, I set off a mini-firestorm. Perhaps because I have spent more time embedded with combat troops in Iraq than any journalist I know - and have interviewed countless Iraqis and members of the coalition military.
But I stand by my words, just as I stood by my assertion of February 2005 that Iraq was in a state of civil war, and later understood that Al Qaeda was its proximate cause. Those statements went against the vested interests of both Bush supporters who didn't want to admit how bad the situation was in Iraq, and war critics, who didn't want to admit that much of it was Al Qaeda's fault.
Back then, both sides brought out their dictionaries and muddied the water by arguing semantics: What exactly do you mean by a civil war? What exactly do you mean by Al Qaeda?
So I will be very clear what I mean when I say we have won the war. A counterinsurgency is won when the government's legitimacy is no longer threatened by the insurgents, the government is able to protect its own people and the people are participating in the government. In Iraq, all three conditions apply.
As early as July 2007, I was saying the surge was succeeding. Yes, the Sunni tribes were repulsed by Al Qaeda's cruelty and turned to fight against the terrorists. And Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr agreed to a ceasefire. Yet these developments came about as a direct result of the surge and the awakening in Al-Anbar Province.
The surge also made it possible for the government of Iraq and the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to become effective. This year, offensives in Basra and Baghdad's Sadr City showed that the Shiite-majority government could take on Shiite militias. And while there were some defections and other problems in both campaigns, the ISF performed very capably. Sure, they had American support. But the fact that Iraqi troops liberated Iraqi neighborhoods went a long way to demonstrating the growing proficiency of the ISF and the legitimacy of the Iraqi government.
The sectarian violence is now mostly over. Al Qaeda has been pushed out of most of its urban enclaves and is now being chased into the hills. Even more important, Al Qaeda has been thoroughly discredited in Iraq. Similarly, now that the civil war no longer justifies their existence, the Shiite militias are largely seen as criminal groups rather than protectors or liberators.
The Iraqi government has reached 15 of the 18 benchmarks set by the U.S. Congress to measure security, political and economic progress. Ten of 18 provinces have been turned over to provincial Iraqi control, with the other eight provinces expected to be turned over by the end of the year. Violence is down to levels not seen since 2004.
There is still fighting in Iraq. But while there remain some terrorists at large, now we are truly fighting "the dead-enders."
The center of gravity in this war has always been the Iraqi people. And when you talk to them, as I have over the past three and a half years, you realize that victory is at hand. They no longer live in fear. Despite sectarian conflicts that are now political rather than military in nature, the feeling of Iraqi nationalism is palpable. Yes, they are Shiites and Sunnis and Kurds, but they are also Iraqis. Just like we are Floridians and New Yorkers, but also Americans.
Relations between Iraqis and Americans are very good and continue to improve. This does not mean that we will always agree on every issue. The Status of Forces Agreement, for instance, is particularly nettlesome, and the fact that the Iraqis are hanging tough in negotiations shows how confident the Maliki government is about its own sovereignty. Good for them.
We should keep some troop presence in Iraq to continue supporting the ISF in its peacekeeping mission. There will still be sporadic violence and even spectacular attacks. But I believe that by the end of the year, barring some unexpected setback, even the most ardent war critics will have to admit the obvious: The war is over. We won.
Yon, a former Green Beret, is author of the book "Moment of Truth in Iraq" and writes at www.michaelyon-online.com.
Ping
There should be a parade
If Bush doesn’t declare victory and honor it accordingly, the glory will all go to Obama, should he (God forbid) ever win the election. All the hard gained victories and progress will be then credited to Obama. Count on it.
Where is its "safe haven"?
A little story here. IIRC, Admiral Hawsley was approached by an aide who said that the press wanted information about a certain battle and asked what he should tell them. To which, Adm Hawsley replied, “Tell ‘em when it’s over and tell ‘em we won.”
Our next step should be to secure our bases in Iraq and use them to spread democracy throughout the Mid-East. That might take 50 or 100 years, which is what McCain was talking about.
Our enemies around the globe gain great advantage by having the United States mired in an Iraqi civil war. Clearly, continuing to pursue the president’s flawed escalation policy until at least July 2008 is not in the national interest of the United States.”
—Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
More like Syria, Sudan, Saudia Arabia and (Pakistan). While Iran shelters several high-profile Al-Q terrorists in one form or another, it can hardly be called their base. Iran (+ Hamas and Hezbullah) is the other coin in the game for the Middle East. They are also our mortal enemies, but not exactly on the same page as Al-Qaeda.
bump bump bump
“So what happens when Al Qaida regroups in its safe haven and comes back again and again? Just wondering.”
Where is that safe haven? Obama’s house?
One thing for sure, is if al-Qaeda does come back they will not have the support of the people. That makes all the difference in the world.
quittin time ping!
There's lots and lots of militant Muslims in Pakistan, I grant you, but they have problems of their own, namely India, which has lots and lots of Hindus, Buddhists, and Sikhs, none of whom have any desire to make common cause with Pakistan's Muslims thugs. There is also the ever-present issue of the very large shadow Communist China casts over all of Asia, and the Chinese don't trust these Muzzies as far as they can throw them.
Chechnya is an option, I suppose, but that is kind of a hard place, geopolitically, to operate your base from.
Let's not forget Dearborn and Seattle, while we're at it!
CA....
It seems to me that Al Qaeda has been “regrouping” in Pakistan for the last 6 years, or so, and it hasn’t recently helped them much in Iraq.
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