A Strategy for McCain

Editor’s note: A longer version of this piece appears in the new issue of National Review.

The good news for Republicans is that Obama can be beaten. The bad news is that the McCain campaign has embarked on a course that — although it has some of the right elements — seems likely to fail.

McCain would be most comfortable running in accord with his particular notions of political virtue while emphasizing character, national security, and a few pet causes such as earmarks. If he wants to win, he has to leave his comfort zone. He should take a page from Hillary Clinton. She did not, of course, defeat Obama, but she road-tested a strategy that cost him support among crucial constituencies — and that strategy is even better suited to McCain’s general-election run than it was to her primary campaign.

McCain ought to be encouraged by how close she came. She was a plodding speaker lacking pizzazz, drew smaller crowds than Obama by an order of magnitude, and was outspent and out-organized. McCain has all the same deficits. Yet she fought Obama nearly to a draw, and after February — when she had finally figured out how to run against him — beat him soundly. That was too late for her. But it is not too late for McCain.

Even her failure offers an instructive lesson for McCain. She went too long without frontally attacking Obama. When she did get more aggressive, he was already galloping toward the nomination on the strength of his narrow but insurmountable pledged-delegate lead. McCain has repeated this mistake, whether because of his sense of honor, his campaign’s disorganization, or, less likely, some master plan that escapes most observers. McCain and the Republican National Committee should have hit Obama right after he won the Democratic nomination. An Associated Press poll shows that the two words people tie most to Obama are “outsider” and “change,” associations McCain should have been contesting from Day One.

Once Clinton went after Obama in earnest, she came back. She surged on the strength of her “3 a.m. phone call” ad, which ran prior to the Ohio and Texas primaries and argued that she was better suited than the neophyte Obama to handle a crisis. And she rolled up her post-February wins on the basis of lunch-bucket appeals to working-class white and Hispanic voters. For a contemporary Democrat, Hillary ran a center-Right campaign; she talked of blowing Iran to smithereens, downed shots of Crown Royal, and appealed frankly to blue-collar whites. Many of these tactics had little substance, but they conveyed a sense of toughness that endeared Hillary to her voters and highlighted a vulnerability of the polished but aloof and fragile-seeming Obama.

McCain is in a better position to use this strategy against Obama than Clinton was. She was never wholly convincing in her adopted role as a working-class warrior. McCain, on the other hand, has the warrior part of the persona in his genes. Nor does McCain face the constraints Clinton did. Going negative in a primary makes party loyalists deeply nervous, and explicitly attacking cultural liberalism in a Democratic primary is unthinkable. Obama has more evident weaknesses than he did when the Democratic primaries started and he was freshly on the scene. His core audience, finally, is a smaller proportion of the general than of the Democratic-primary electorate.

Oddly enough, the most disgruntled of Clinton’s supporters are not the voters that McCain should try hardest to reach. It should go without saying that feminists will not deliver McCain the presidency. Her hard-core early supporters, middle-aged white feminists, may be complaining about Obama but are totally committed to abortion and will vote accordingly. It is her soft-core and later supporters who can be reached. Clinton got them so easily as to suggest that they were as much an anti-Obama vote as a pro-Clinton one.

McCain’s greatest opportunity will be among whites (and, to a lesser extent, Hispanics) without college degrees. Democrats who fell into these categories proved unreceptive to Obama in the primaries. McCain should have an even bigger opening among the independents and soft Democrats in these groups. Working-class whites have been swing voters in presidential elections, with most of their votes going to Republicans but the margin making the difference between victory and defeat. Many of them are at least moderately conservative on social issues, but they are receptive to Democratic proposals on health care, the minimum wage, and other economic issues. A lot of them are union members, or married to union members. If McCain makes inroads among these voters, his numbers will rise disproportionately in such swing states as Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Nevada.

The first step toward getting them is to make the anti-Obama case. The cliché among political operatives and pundits is that this election is “about Obama.” The truth in the claim is that since the public would rather have a Democratic president, the race will turn largely on whether Obama is an acceptable one. It follows that McCain’s main task is to make him unacceptable to voters — and particularly to non-black working-class voters. He has to first raise concerns about Obama and then show how his candidacy addresses those concerns.

The case against Obama need not (and probably should not) be subtle. In a nutshell: He’s too inexperienced, too liberal, and as a result too risky. McCain has to argue that a man who has been in the Senate a mere four years, and whose most significant résumé items prior to that are a stint in the Illinois legislature and time as a community organizer, is not ready to be commander-in-chief in dangerous times. The flip-flop charges against Obama will achieve nothing for McCain unless they are deployed to make him look risky: immature (he doesn’t know what he thinks), weak (he caves to pressure), and dishonest (he tries to fool people).

On top of this, McCain has to go after Obama’s liberalism, which verges on radicalism. The congealing conventional wisdom is that attacks on liberalism are “tired.” But there is no evidence that the “change” the public wants is left-wing. McCain is deeply averse (for no good reason) to hitting Obama over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. But Obama’s record, from Illinois to the Senate to the campaign trail, provides many other openings. The bottom line is that Obama is a liberal you can’t trust and can’t, in every sense, afford.

Such are the Republican straits this year that doubts about Obama aren’t by themselves going to be enough for McCain. He has to present himself as a compelling answer to the moment. And any election is a choice; the question of Obama’s acceptability will be judged relative to McCain’s appeal. McCain’s selling points are exactly the reverse of Obama’s: He is experienced, in the political mainstream, and a steady hand.

Several of the most salient issues in this election hold promise for Republicans: Tax increases are still unpopular; support for domestic oil drilling and nuclear power has shot up (for nuclear it is as high as 67 percent); the Iraq War, while remaining a negative, has steadily become less of one; and Republicans lead on fighting terrorism. McCain can, and must, win these debates.

McCain’s case for himself on foreign policy almost writes itself: He has been immersed in it for 30 years, his military judgment about Iraq has been spot-on, and he recognizes the dangers we face around the world. The public isn’t in a belligerent mood, so McCain needs to avoid seeming reckless or dismissive of allies; but on Iran, for instance, he has sold a policy that seems, and is, tough and responsible.

It is on domestic policy that Republicans are weakest, as has been the case in most years. That is a reason Republicans ought to be talking more about it: They have a lot of upside potential.

Health care is supposed to be one of the Democrats’ best issues this year. But they are overreaching, and Republicans have as strong a platform as they ever have had. McCain can plausibly say that his plan will make insurance more affordable. He will thus get more people insurance without forcing them to buy it or subsidize it. His plan involves no backdoor government rationing or penalties for small business, as Obama’s plan does. What voters want most when it comes to health insurance are portability, affordability, and control. McCain should make the case for his plan with confidence and frequency.

Oddly for a Republican, McCain is better positioned on health care than on taxes. He has proposed several tax cuts and tax reforms, but none have offered much in the way of immediate benefits for middle-class families — which is particularly important, to counter Obama’s promise of a middle-class tax cut. The only way for McCain to offer middle-class tax relief is to go after the tax that hits the middle class hardest: the payroll tax. And the only way to do that without taking on Social Security frontally is to offer families a tax credit for children that can be applied against payroll taxes. That idea should appeal to independents and even some Democrats.

Conservatives should be willing to give McCain a fairly wide berth to accent his maverick credentials. Incredibly enough, his favorable/unfavorable numbers are comparable to Obama’s. McCain’s advocacy (for better or, largely, worse) of campaign-finance reform and “comprehensive” immigration reform, together with his excoriating opposition to the earmarks of both parties, delineates his independence. By the end of the campaign, he will surely be arguing that he can be a healthy check on the excesses of a Democratic Congress, while working with it, when possible, to advance important goals.

Even in a best-case campaign, McCain is going to have to take a few calculated risks. One of them might be making a one-term pledge during his speech at the Republican convention: a commitment to place fixing Washington above personal or partisan interest.

Most important, McCain’s campaign needs a unifying theme. It so far has lacked one, which has made it seem carping and defensive, and has diminished McCain. Here again, he can emulate Hillary, offering a conservative version of her occasional theme of a “fighter for you.” In particular, he should be fighting for middle-class Americans against the lobbyists, institutions, and liberals who in various ways block their aspirations.

It is not enough, in other words, to offer wonky “reforms,” although that’s important. McCain has to tap into the anger and frustration of the American public. He has to complain that Washington is broken and argue that both parties have let voters down. He has done it before. In 2000, he was the feisty — even angry — crusader against Washington and the status quo. It wasn’t the ideal message for a Republican primary audience at that time, but now that voters desperately want such a candidate, McCain can’t quite find his old mojo.

The fighter theme would work on multiple levels. It would tap into the public mood of disenchantment with Washington and politics. It would suit McCain, who is at his best when expressing an outraged irascibility (getting angry is not something he usually has trouble doing) and whose sense of honor is genuinely offended by many Washington practices. It would communicate a certain vigor, perhaps mitigating concerns about his age. It would be in keeping with an aggressive anti-Obama campaign. It would excite conservatives because — much of the time — McCain would be fighting against a confirmed liberal with an adoring media, while the populism and the anti-Washington cast of the message would appeal to independents as well.

Our basic analysis, by the way, happens to accord with that of Democratic pollster Douglas Schoen, who did a survey for the Aspen Institute and teased out from it the best messages for McCain and Obama. Schoen’s data indicated that “McCain has yet to challenge the premises behind the Obama candidacy, and is allowing him to consolidate support in ways that give him a slight but clear advantage.” Foreign policy might be a strength, “but to win, McCain needs to go beyond foreign policy and capture the economic issue, particularly by winning support from those who believe Obama lacks experience and will raise taxes. McCain must link this negative Obama theme with his own strong, economic reform message in order to distance himself from Bush and have his own distinctive domestic agenda.”

The McCain campaign shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of security by the narrowness of Obama’s lead. It may be that the best analogy is not 1976 — when the upstart challenger Jimmy Carter opened a huge lead over President Ford that steadily diminished over the fall — but 1980. That race was close until the end, when voters decided they were comfortable with Ronald Reagan, allowing him to blow out President Carter. McCain helps Obama every day he fails to define and challenge him, as the public slowly gets used to the idea of the Democrat as a national leader.

The environment is so tough for Republicans that McCain won’t be able to win just on points. If it’s even a close call whether Obama is acceptable, Obama probably wins. McCain needs to fight, and time’s a-wastin’.

1. Elect McCain. (Hold your nose when you vote, if you have to, but do vote.)

2. Roll back "same-sex marriage" in California.

3. Keep endangered pro-life Senate seats: NH, CO, MN, MS, NM, OR, etc.

4. Everything else.

“McCain has repeated this mistake, whether because of his sense of honor, his campaign’s disorganization, or, less likely, some master plan that escapes most observers. “

Or he’s just a weak sister that loves liberals so much that he doesn’t have any fight in him FOR THEM.

McCain and the Republican National Committee should have hit Obama right after he won the Democratic nomination.

By then, Obama had already fired the first volleys toward McCain and had him cowering. Team Obama had already threatened to use the race card, causing Team McCain to cower. That put McCain on the defensive, even before Obama had locked up the Dem nomination; and the McCain team failed to counter the offensive.

McCain is trying to take the high road, like Bob Dole did.

Dole went up against an embattled, weakened, ineffectual first term president -- and lost.

McCain is going up against a contender who is slick and charismatic. McCain needs to get down from his high-~~horse~~road and engage the oppostion. Otherwise, he will be beside Dole -- a footnote in the Annals of Historical Also-Rans.

Even after his pandering tryst with La Raza last week, they endorsed Obama over the weekend. That was a big loss, considering all the time and effort McCain has put in to Comprehensive Immigration Reform (aka, McCain-Kennedy; aka, Amnesty for Illegals).

I'd reorder your priorities as 3, 2, 4 and 1.

The bad news is that the McCain campaign has embarked on a course that — although it has some of the right elements — seems likely to fail.

McCain's priorites seem to be:

Kissing the ring of La Raza.
Winning the war in Iraq.
Bowing to the altar of gorebal warming.
He is going to miss out on a lot of conservative votes until he starts acting as if we're at least as important to him as La Raza.

Yes of course this is the answer, McCain must tap into America's anger and there can be no doubt that America is one angry nation right now. What are we angry about?

The price of gasoline: oops McCain was on the wrong side of this issue for too long.

Immigration: oops McCain was definitely on the wrong side of this issue for too long.

The economy: oops McCain has admitted that he knows virtually nothing about the economy.

Taxes: here McCain has a mixed record.

Runaway federal spending: here McCain has a decent record.

There is nothing left for McCain to run on but national defense. He already has all the white males who care about this issue what's he going to do about single women who are going to decide this election? I suppose he is going to tap into their anger about... healthcare?

There is nothing left for McCain to run on but national defense.

In the primaries, that is all he ran on.

In the debates, that was his only area of any strength.

He even admitted he knew little about the economy.

After 25 years in Washington, McCain really has little to run on -- and most of his 'accomplishments' brought him more disfavor than favor from prospective supporters.

Well, say what you want about McCain, but it is President Bush who has made it so difficult this year for Republicans. An ever shrinking popularity (now hovering around 28 percent) does not bode well for success. History may be repeating itself. The GOP had good candidates in Thomas Dewey and Wendel Wilkie back in the 40s but the American electorate had too many bad memories of Herbert Hoover to bolt from FDR.

I agree completely.

Bush should have had a VP who could step up as a contender. He didn’t.

And barring a serious terrorist attack or threat in October, November is going to be all about high gas prices, substantial food cost inflation, and early winter skyrocketing home heating bills.

Voters who feel ‘okay’ will vote for the status quo.

Voters who feel ‘pinched’ or crushed by economy will vote for change.

If Republicans did not have McCain they would have to invent him. He is rock solid on spending, taxes, abortion and defense. Those are the basics. Then there are the other issues, created or not, legitimate or not, which gain traction in the public forum. They require action. McCain has never been afraid to take on the tough issues and hammer out solutions.

“The environment is so tough for Republicans that McCain won’t be able to win just on points. If it’s even a close call whether Obama is acceptable, Obama probably wins. McCain needs to fight, and time’s a-wastin’.”
__________________________________________________________

Timing is vital. Peaking to soon or to late either one will not succeed.

One thing we can be reasonably sure of ... at best (barring a major event of some magnitude) ... is it will be a close contest.

McCain needs to come out swinging and tap into the anger over rising fuel costs and food costs. Hillary waited to long and when she did attack Obama,his support collapsed in the later primaries. These writers are right do no let the Obama media give Obama the mirage of inevitability which is what they are trying to do every day with phony push polls and .McCain has to get out and fight so far his strategy is dull and too quiet. He needs to scare the living hell out of the voters about this Marxist.I fear that idiot Black running the show is real dope.

I think he's sliceing the demographics too thin. It's worked so far but to beat the juggernaut that is Obama he has to stake out is positions and contrast them. There's no reason to be afraid of his own record. We went along with a lot that we didn't agree with in Arizona when he explained "This is what I'm doing and this is why I'm doing it". Any politician has a certain amount of latitude if his reasons sound justifiable.

The trouble now is that Obama has the same latitude (or more) and he is using it to the greatest effect.

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“If Republicans did not have McCain they would have to invent him. He is rock solid on spending, taxes, abortion and defense. Those are the basics. Then there are the other issues, created or not, legitimate or not, which gain traction in the public forum. They require action. McCain has never been afraid to take on the tough issues and hammer out solutions.”

Put down the crack pipe.

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