Your take on the importance of solar activity is fine, but I caution you that the lag in its influence is probably on the order of five years... probably a “five year moving average” would suffice. So far, I’m not sure we’ll be there by the end of this year. Next year, or the year later, if solar activity has not really blasted off to offset some of the current lack of activity, I would expect your cooling scenerio to be accurate.
As I write here, the current solar cycle has lasted 146 months. The previous fifty years, the cycle lengths averaged 125 months - at least 21months longer. Empirically, the last 200 years, the temperature sensitivity to solar cycle length has been approximately -0.28C/yr=-0.5F/yr=-0.1C/4months. So far, then, this cycle length suggests that the temperature during this coming decade will be about 0.5C cooler than the average of the previous 50 years. That will pretty much bring back to zero the “temperature anomaly” that has been seen in the US temperatures during the last century.
Time will tell... but if it tells the story I suggest here, the CO2/ AGW hypothesis will be pretty much shattered beyond reconciliation.
You have clearly studied the issue thoroughly. Have you looked into any possible accelerating/exacerbating factors? I’m thinking volcanic activity and/or extremely large forest fires that increase cloud reflectivity and/or formation or block additional sunlight? Not sure the recent large Chilean volcanic activity is enough to matter, but if it is, might that bring down temps more/sooner? How about the enormous fires in CA, the smoke from which is easily seen from space?