Posted on 07/16/2008 5:43:59 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
Debbie Kelly and her husband, Tom, have been living the dream for years.
They've got a cozy home nestled in the Wyoming Valley, the bucolic Iowa County setting where architect Frank Lloyd Wright drew his inspiration.
Deer graze in the yard. Orioles flock to the bird feeder. When nights are clear, the Milky Way lights the sky.
It's a little slice of heaven -- save for the 45-mile commute to work.
It wasn't a big financial drain driving into Madison, even as gasoline passed $2 a gallon in 2004 or $3 last summer. But for Debbie Kelly, $4 fuel has been the tipping point.
Now, instead of driving all the way to her nursing job at the Dean Clinic on Fish Hatchery Road, Kelly will often park in Verona and ride her bicycle the rest of the way. One night a week, she camps in the back of her pickup truck at Lake Farm County Park, south of the Beltline on the shores of Lake Waubesa.
"They've got the hottest showers," said Kelly, 54, a mother of three.
Kelly admits she's thought about moving closer to the city. The time spent driving and the rising costs are beginning to wear. But she said her husband isn't budging.
"Tom will probably go with the property," she said. "I don't think he'll ever leave the valley."
Whether high fuel prices are going to affect where people in Wisconsin live remains to be seen. It's not that simple to just pick up and move, especially for those who already own a home.
Still, it's a question crossing the minds of many who chose to buy a home miles from their place of employment or school.
"It really hit me when it cost nearly $100 to fill up the truck last week," said Rich Eggleston, who lives in Fitchburg and commutes to his job downtown at the Alliance of Cities.
And there are early indications that life in the suburbs is starting to look less attractive to home buyers.
Consider the median price of homes sold in McFarland is down nearly 19 percent from a year ago, falling from $258,000 to $210,000, according to the latest figures from DaneCountyMarket.com.
In Mount Horeb, prices are down 14 percent. In Fitchburg, they're off 8 percent. In the New Glarus/Belleville/Monticello market along the Dane-Green County border, prices are down nearly 10 percent.
While real estate insiders say it's dangerous to draw conclusion from just a few months of data -- Verona, Waunakee and Sauk City, for example, have all seen prices climb in 2008 -- there seems a growing realization that gasoline prices are not going down again.
That's left some observers wondering if the drivable suburb -- the model for virtually all post-World War II development in Wisconsin and the U.S. -- has run its course.
"I think we're looking at a tremendous societal shift," said Steve Hiniker, executive director of 1,000 Friends of Wisconsin, a statewide group that advocates for better land use. "Urban areas such as Madison and Milwaukee will continue to fill in and modern transit will soon be a part of the urban setting. Suburbs will continue to lose value as gas prices hit the stratosphere."
Indeed, the future of the suburbs in the face of rising energy costs has sparked a flurry of national reports in the past months. Many have come from groups that would like nothing better than to see an end to sprawl and a reinvestment in mass transit and the urban core.
One study from Chicago-based CEOs for Cities argues that soaring gasoline prices are what really popped the nation's housing market bubble.
"The popular narrative on the collapse of housing prices has only blamed exotic lending practices," said the group's economist Joseph Cortright. "But the much more important story is about how higher gas prices have re-drawn the map of urban real estate values."
In another report, Arthur Nelson of Virginia Tech predicts the nation is facing a surplus of 22 million large lot homes (houses built on 1/6 an acre of more) by 2025. That represents roughly 40 percent of the "McMansions" in existence today, places like Bergamont, Bishop's Bay and Hawk's Landing in Dane County.
And long-time sprawl critics like James Howard Kunstler have cheered the higher fuel prices as finally bringing an end to decades of suburban madness. He said trying to find solutions to keep the "Happy Motoring" utopia running is naive.
"The truth is that no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used french-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the Interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future," Kunstler said. "We have to make other arrangements."
Closer to home, not everyone shares the same doom-and-gloom scenario.
Madison Mayor Dave Cieslewicz said fuel prices haven't reached the point where Americans have been forced to make fundamental changes. Rather, he sees a more gradual shift to a balanced mix of transit, compact development, walkable communities -- and single-passenger vehicles.
"I just got back from Europe and people still love to drive but they have other options," he said. "Unfortunately we've created a physical environment in this country that makes us slaves to our cars."
Cieslewicz said those who oppose mass transit or improved rail service often argue that environmentalists want to take away the freedom to drive.
"People on the other side of this issue use scare tactics and say everyone will be forced to give up their cars," he said. "But there is actually more freedom in having the option to bike or walk somewhere without fear of getting killed."
Troy Thiel, who moved to Madison in 2003 from the Chicago area and narrowly lost a 2007 bid for a seat on the City Council, predicts the suburban housing market will weather the storm. He notes that many of the area's largest employment centers are no longer located downtown -- including Epic Systems in Verona, American Family on the far east side and Discovery Springs in Middleton.
A sales agent with First Weber West Towne, Thiel also questions whether fuel prices are having much impact at all on an already depressed real estate market. He notes that sales of homes and condos within five miles of the State Capitol were down 30 percent for the first six months of 2008 versus a 25 percent sales decline overall.
"People are choosing more efficient personal autos and will locate closer to their jobs, many of which are already in the 'burbs," said Thiel. "Rich folk are putting their SUVs in the garage. That way $4 gas looks like $3 gas and they're just fine with that."
Needless to say, those who can afford it don't feel the fuel pinch as acutely.
But rising oil prices are costing everyone plenty. The average American household will spend over $3,200 to fuel their vehicles this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than twice the cost of just five years ago.
In Dane County, drivers are now spending a combined $428 million more on gasoline than in 2004, according to professor Andy Lewis, community development specialist for University of Wisconsin Extension. That's money that could have gone to a lot of other uses, whether affordable housing or commuter rail.
Lewis noted that in 2006, when gasoline averaged $3 a gallon, households with incomes under $14,999 were already spending eight percent of their income on fuel versus three percent for households with incomes over $100,000.
"As expected, the lower income households are feeling the pinch more then wealthy households," said Lewis.
On the other hand, Alan Harvey, chairman of the town of Windsor, said Dane County enjoys the advantage of having a diverse economy -- a mix of both urban, rural and suburban development.
"Clearly, all of society is going to be looking at a period of adjustment," he said. "But I think we're pretty well-positioned since economic activity is spread throughout the county."
Harvey said the real impact is being felt in communities outside Dane County like Fall River or Pardeeville, where people have purchased homes because they got a lot more square footage for their dollar.
"Those advantages start to disappear when commuting costs get too high," said Harvey, who is skeptical about the ability of mass transit to solve the problem.
Madison Ald. Robbie Webber, who defeated Thiel in the District 5 council race, has championed higher density urban development and mass transit as the long-term solution. Despite the growth in the suburbs, she said Madison remains the engine that drives the area economy with its downtown and UW campus.
"Even lunch is easier to get to without a car in a dense area than in a suburban business park," she said.
Webber said the concern isn't so much with Middleton or Verona, two places where real estate values have been holding.
"What about Mount Horeb, Dodgeville, Lake Mills, Edgerton, Portage?" she said. "Those long commutes, with no hope of transit, are going to be pretty painful."
To that end, commercial real estate developer Terrence Wall says he realized several years ago that rising gasoline prices were going to dramatically impact Dane County. For that reason, he's pursuing mixed-use projects combining office, residential and retail at Tribeca Village in Middleton and the West End in Verona.
"I've been warning people for the last three years that demand for oil in China was going to send prices skyrocketing," said Wall, president of T. Wall Properties.
Dan Miller, a Realtor with Keller Williams who maintains the DaneCountyMarket.com Web site with colleague Shawn Kriewaldt, cautioned against drawing too many conclusions about the long-term impact of gasoline prices on the local housing market.
"For example, I just helped somebody sell a house in Madison and buy one in Mount Horeb because they work at Epic and wanted to be closer to their job," he said.
Miller said a few more months of data may help paint a clearer picture.
"I think we're on the early part of the curve right now," he said. "Most folks spend several months looking for a home before they make an offer, and once an offer is accepted, it can be another 1 to 3 months until the closing. Given the lag between the decision to buy and the actual purchase, my hunch is the data will become more telling later this fall and winter."
At this point, most commuters are just biting the bullet, trying to combine trips or share rides when possible.
Nicole Weisenberger, who drives 100 miles round-trip from Madison to her job as an occupational therapist in Beloit, has found a few ways to offset the high gas prices. One is purchasing a Pontiac Vibe, which gets over 30 mpg on the highway. The other is cutting back on doggy day care from three days to one day a week.
"To be honest with you, I think the dog has been suffering more than I have," she said.
To an extent, yes.
"Wake up. Drilling won’t do anything."
Bullshit. I'm from South Louisiana, and I'm VERY familiar with the oil business. I know just what a TINY fraction of the Gulf of Mexico in which drilling is allowed (about half of the available coastline). And ALL of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts are off limits as well. There are HUGE amounts of oil off the California coast-so much that it oozes out of the seabed naturally--all off limits. There's plenty of oil---but the eco-nutcases like you have prevented drilling for it and refining it. This situation is TOTALLY artificial and caused DIRECTLY by government INTERFERENCE with the "free market".
Nice try, but no they are not.
The statistics are comparing 2 *major* cities, that have clearly marked city boundaries, such as Minneapolis and Los Angeles have.
The statistics are clear regarding these two major cities, and Minneapolis has considerably more crime per capita than does Los Angeles.
I’m not an eco-nutcase. I haven’t said a word on this thread to suggest that, either. I don’t think it’s economically feasible in the long-term to reamin dependent on a fossil fuel. There’s a finite supply and an ever-growing demand. Maybe it will be fine for the rest of our lifetime, but I’m trying to think further ahead than that.
Fine, whatever. All that says is that Los Angeles is a low-crime city. I still don’t get the point you’re trying to make.
Also, Minneapolis and St. Paul (which is where I live, BTW) pretty much just have the city proper and then suburbs. I grew up in Edina, right over the border from Minneapolis, and it becomes very suburban very fast. This is unlike Los Angleles where there are very urbanized towns and cities right next to or in some cases surrounded by the city proper. A lot of what people think of when they think of “Los Angeles” is not actually IN the City of Los Angeles. That was the only point I was trying to make. It doesn’t mean that there is more crime within the city limits.
[I always wonder what people out in the middle of nowhere do when their car breaks down? I just take the bus.]
I live out in the middle of nowhere (and like it very much). If my car breaks down, I fix it! You are quite the city slicker aren’t ya?
What if it breaks down for good? What if you need to go shopping for parts? It’s not always that simple.
I wouldn’t call myself a city slicker. People from the country think I am, but I spent a few years working in NYC and people there I thought I was a country bumpkin. I just can’t win.
Cars are always fixable. However, if it was going to cost more to repair the car that what it was worth, I’d sell it for scrap and buy a new car. If I needed to go shopping for parts, I’d can order them over the internet or take one of our other two vehicles to town. I could also call a friend or family member to give me a lift (us little folk out here in the boondocks like to help each other out like that, probably a foreign concept to most city liberals).
I’m a little insulted, frankly. First of all, I’m not a liberal. Secondly, I’ve never seen a motorist stranded on the side of the road without somebody pulling over to help him or her. I’m skeptical you’ve ever even been to Minnesota, so don’t make judgements. I wouldn’t do the same about Kansas.
I would take the bus because I don’t want to bother people. I don’t want to interrupt somebody else’s day when I have a better option. Also, if I want to make it to work on time, I don’t necessarily have time to wait. I could fix my own car, but the money I spend having somebody else fix it isn’t worth as much as the time I’d lose doing it myself.
There are places on this world where they are burning it up. In this country, we HAVE destroyed things, we have polluted and made toxic areas of our environment, we have caused unnecessary destruction.
We have become markedly better in the past 40 years. However, don’t let the fact that the left and the environmental whackos have stolen the movement for their own purposes make you think you must therefore be opposed to the concept of “greening up the planet”.
There are things we can do that make sense, that will be better for us and our children, that will provide a virtually eternally sustainable environment for humankind.
If we simply dismiss environmentalism and conservationism because the movements have been overrun by liberals, we will be on the wrong side, just as they are.
I’ve been to every U.S. state except, CA, OR, WA, AK, FL and the very northeastern states.
You position here is liberal. You oppose free market solutions and support Gov’t interference and regulation. That is leftist. Why not just let the free market find the solution?
>I’m criticizing people who think they’re entitled to cheap gas.<
I know Congress is not totally responsible for the price of oil/gas, but in as much as their action has raised our costs in the recent future, we voters are doggone sure entitled to cheaper gas by voting these liberal whackadoos out of Washington.
That, and we can drill our resources in a manner that does as little harm as possible to the environment, if these Dems weren’t so glued to their environmentalist base.
I beg to differ. Your "solutions" are right out of eco-nutcases "case book" of eliminating the automobile and forcing everyone into megalopolises.
"I don’t think it’s economically feasible in the long-term to remain dependent on a fossil fuel. There’s a finite supply and an ever-growing demand. Maybe it will be fine for the rest of our lifetime, but I’m trying to think further ahead than that."
And I agree. But we don't NEED a "long-term" fix TODAY. There are technologies coming on that will take care of the LONG-term (Nanosolar CIGS printed solar cells, Bussard IEC fusion, "cold fusion" (is looking more real every day), burner and breeder fission reactors) and more. There is no shortage of solutions to the LONG term problem if we can just shove the eco-fanatics back into their cages and quit following the meme that the only good technology is a banned technology. And may James Earl Carter rot in hell.
“I’ve got a news flash for you; the road system is government subsidized transportation.”
Here’s a news flash for you, Mr. “Liberaltarian.”
The roads in states are subsidized by taxpayers, not government. The slimey politicians don’t contribute a dime to roads. They steal money from working taxpayers at the point of a gun. Liberals in states tax the hell out of productive communities and redistribute that money as “grants” and subsidies back to those communities liberals choose.
It’s called socialism.
Did you know that states issue notices inviting communities to apply for “grants” to fix bridges, lay roads, build sewers, steal privately owned railroad tracks for bike paths, grab property for snowmobile trails from private property owners and hand out money to set up regional planning commissions to overrule decisions by local communities?
I’d bet you never knew that.
How about I send a bum and a heavily armed squad of fascist cops to your house and demand you give him 30% of everything you earned last week. That okay with you?
Because it's a beautiful state that doesn't have the liberal lunacy of Michigan or Ohio. Yes Doyle is a Rat but he's Reagan compared to Granholm.
Unfortunately, I'm all out of pixie dust. Drilling for oil will automatically bring gas prices down. It happened under Reagan, and it happened when Bush overturned his father's EO ban on offshore oil drilling.
This a problem of global supply and demand, and it’s only going to get worse.
Harry Reid, is that you?
We need to ween ourselves off oil, not kick the can down the road.
Oil is a commodity, not an addiction. We need oil, not just for fuel, but it's used in thousands of other products as well.
The high prices are good because they’ll allow the market to figure out something more efficient much faster than any government program will.
You mean like ethanol, bio-fuels, and farts? Those efficient alternatives?
It's the new gov't speak. $75k per year income is "rich", a 1/6 acre lot is "large", and a 2,000 sqft house is a "mansion".
You're simply wrong and myopic on this topic.
Yeah, all thanks to the socialists in Congress.
It’s a global problem.
It's not. It's a problem fabricated by the socialists in Congress.
For many people, that may leave them unable to live their current lifestyle.
That includes your buddies living in the city. Guess where the bulk of low-income energy assistance programs go to? People in the big cities!
If you think people can magically adjust their lifestyles because of energy, you are crazy. High energy prices affects EVERYONE - even Bill Gates. All the food that's trucked into your grocery store, the products trucked into Wal-Mart. Hello? What do you think these trucks run on?
Rather than accepting it adjusting, many are whining and complaining and expecting somebody else to fix the mess they’ve gotten themselves into. Typical liberal behavior
It's not "typical liberal" behavior. Energy is the lifeblood of freedom. It has made America, for the 20th century anyway, a powerful and envied nation. It has built our military, our factories, and maintained our relatively high standard of living. You are truly out to lunch on this issue.
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