Posted on 07/16/2008 5:43:59 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
Debbie Kelly and her husband, Tom, have been living the dream for years.
They've got a cozy home nestled in the Wyoming Valley, the bucolic Iowa County setting where architect Frank Lloyd Wright drew his inspiration.
Deer graze in the yard. Orioles flock to the bird feeder. When nights are clear, the Milky Way lights the sky.
It's a little slice of heaven -- save for the 45-mile commute to work.
It wasn't a big financial drain driving into Madison, even as gasoline passed $2 a gallon in 2004 or $3 last summer. But for Debbie Kelly, $4 fuel has been the tipping point.
Now, instead of driving all the way to her nursing job at the Dean Clinic on Fish Hatchery Road, Kelly will often park in Verona and ride her bicycle the rest of the way. One night a week, she camps in the back of her pickup truck at Lake Farm County Park, south of the Beltline on the shores of Lake Waubesa.
"They've got the hottest showers," said Kelly, 54, a mother of three.
Kelly admits she's thought about moving closer to the city. The time spent driving and the rising costs are beginning to wear. But she said her husband isn't budging.
"Tom will probably go with the property," she said. "I don't think he'll ever leave the valley."
Whether high fuel prices are going to affect where people in Wisconsin live remains to be seen. It's not that simple to just pick up and move, especially for those who already own a home.
Still, it's a question crossing the minds of many who chose to buy a home miles from their place of employment or school.
"It really hit me when it cost nearly $100 to fill up the truck last week," said Rich Eggleston, who lives in Fitchburg and commutes to his job downtown at the Alliance of Cities.
And there are early indications that life in the suburbs is starting to look less attractive to home buyers.
Consider the median price of homes sold in McFarland is down nearly 19 percent from a year ago, falling from $258,000 to $210,000, according to the latest figures from DaneCountyMarket.com.
In Mount Horeb, prices are down 14 percent. In Fitchburg, they're off 8 percent. In the New Glarus/Belleville/Monticello market along the Dane-Green County border, prices are down nearly 10 percent.
While real estate insiders say it's dangerous to draw conclusion from just a few months of data -- Verona, Waunakee and Sauk City, for example, have all seen prices climb in 2008 -- there seems a growing realization that gasoline prices are not going down again.
That's left some observers wondering if the drivable suburb -- the model for virtually all post-World War II development in Wisconsin and the U.S. -- has run its course.
"I think we're looking at a tremendous societal shift," said Steve Hiniker, executive director of 1,000 Friends of Wisconsin, a statewide group that advocates for better land use. "Urban areas such as Madison and Milwaukee will continue to fill in and modern transit will soon be a part of the urban setting. Suburbs will continue to lose value as gas prices hit the stratosphere."
Indeed, the future of the suburbs in the face of rising energy costs has sparked a flurry of national reports in the past months. Many have come from groups that would like nothing better than to see an end to sprawl and a reinvestment in mass transit and the urban core.
One study from Chicago-based CEOs for Cities argues that soaring gasoline prices are what really popped the nation's housing market bubble.
"The popular narrative on the collapse of housing prices has only blamed exotic lending practices," said the group's economist Joseph Cortright. "But the much more important story is about how higher gas prices have re-drawn the map of urban real estate values."
In another report, Arthur Nelson of Virginia Tech predicts the nation is facing a surplus of 22 million large lot homes (houses built on 1/6 an acre of more) by 2025. That represents roughly 40 percent of the "McMansions" in existence today, places like Bergamont, Bishop's Bay and Hawk's Landing in Dane County.
And long-time sprawl critics like James Howard Kunstler have cheered the higher fuel prices as finally bringing an end to decades of suburban madness. He said trying to find solutions to keep the "Happy Motoring" utopia running is naive.
"The truth is that no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used french-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the Interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future," Kunstler said. "We have to make other arrangements."
Closer to home, not everyone shares the same doom-and-gloom scenario.
Madison Mayor Dave Cieslewicz said fuel prices haven't reached the point where Americans have been forced to make fundamental changes. Rather, he sees a more gradual shift to a balanced mix of transit, compact development, walkable communities -- and single-passenger vehicles.
"I just got back from Europe and people still love to drive but they have other options," he said. "Unfortunately we've created a physical environment in this country that makes us slaves to our cars."
Cieslewicz said those who oppose mass transit or improved rail service often argue that environmentalists want to take away the freedom to drive.
"People on the other side of this issue use scare tactics and say everyone will be forced to give up their cars," he said. "But there is actually more freedom in having the option to bike or walk somewhere without fear of getting killed."
Troy Thiel, who moved to Madison in 2003 from the Chicago area and narrowly lost a 2007 bid for a seat on the City Council, predicts the suburban housing market will weather the storm. He notes that many of the area's largest employment centers are no longer located downtown -- including Epic Systems in Verona, American Family on the far east side and Discovery Springs in Middleton.
A sales agent with First Weber West Towne, Thiel also questions whether fuel prices are having much impact at all on an already depressed real estate market. He notes that sales of homes and condos within five miles of the State Capitol were down 30 percent for the first six months of 2008 versus a 25 percent sales decline overall.
"People are choosing more efficient personal autos and will locate closer to their jobs, many of which are already in the 'burbs," said Thiel. "Rich folk are putting their SUVs in the garage. That way $4 gas looks like $3 gas and they're just fine with that."
Needless to say, those who can afford it don't feel the fuel pinch as acutely.
But rising oil prices are costing everyone plenty. The average American household will spend over $3,200 to fuel their vehicles this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than twice the cost of just five years ago.
In Dane County, drivers are now spending a combined $428 million more on gasoline than in 2004, according to professor Andy Lewis, community development specialist for University of Wisconsin Extension. That's money that could have gone to a lot of other uses, whether affordable housing or commuter rail.
Lewis noted that in 2006, when gasoline averaged $3 a gallon, households with incomes under $14,999 were already spending eight percent of their income on fuel versus three percent for households with incomes over $100,000.
"As expected, the lower income households are feeling the pinch more then wealthy households," said Lewis.
On the other hand, Alan Harvey, chairman of the town of Windsor, said Dane County enjoys the advantage of having a diverse economy -- a mix of both urban, rural and suburban development.
"Clearly, all of society is going to be looking at a period of adjustment," he said. "But I think we're pretty well-positioned since economic activity is spread throughout the county."
Harvey said the real impact is being felt in communities outside Dane County like Fall River or Pardeeville, where people have purchased homes because they got a lot more square footage for their dollar.
"Those advantages start to disappear when commuting costs get too high," said Harvey, who is skeptical about the ability of mass transit to solve the problem.
Madison Ald. Robbie Webber, who defeated Thiel in the District 5 council race, has championed higher density urban development and mass transit as the long-term solution. Despite the growth in the suburbs, she said Madison remains the engine that drives the area economy with its downtown and UW campus.
"Even lunch is easier to get to without a car in a dense area than in a suburban business park," she said.
Webber said the concern isn't so much with Middleton or Verona, two places where real estate values have been holding.
"What about Mount Horeb, Dodgeville, Lake Mills, Edgerton, Portage?" she said. "Those long commutes, with no hope of transit, are going to be pretty painful."
To that end, commercial real estate developer Terrence Wall says he realized several years ago that rising gasoline prices were going to dramatically impact Dane County. For that reason, he's pursuing mixed-use projects combining office, residential and retail at Tribeca Village in Middleton and the West End in Verona.
"I've been warning people for the last three years that demand for oil in China was going to send prices skyrocketing," said Wall, president of T. Wall Properties.
Dan Miller, a Realtor with Keller Williams who maintains the DaneCountyMarket.com Web site with colleague Shawn Kriewaldt, cautioned against drawing too many conclusions about the long-term impact of gasoline prices on the local housing market.
"For example, I just helped somebody sell a house in Madison and buy one in Mount Horeb because they work at Epic and wanted to be closer to their job," he said.
Miller said a few more months of data may help paint a clearer picture.
"I think we're on the early part of the curve right now," he said. "Most folks spend several months looking for a home before they make an offer, and once an offer is accepted, it can be another 1 to 3 months until the closing. Given the lag between the decision to buy and the actual purchase, my hunch is the data will become more telling later this fall and winter."
At this point, most commuters are just biting the bullet, trying to combine trips or share rides when possible.
Nicole Weisenberger, who drives 100 miles round-trip from Madison to her job as an occupational therapist in Beloit, has found a few ways to offset the high gas prices. One is purchasing a Pontiac Vibe, which gets over 30 mpg on the highway. The other is cutting back on doggy day care from three days to one day a week.
"To be honest with you, I think the dog has been suffering more than I have," she said.
You're completely ignoring the role our weakened dollar is playing in this. The issue is more complex than people think, but I don't think you're one who fully understands it either. I question your libertarian label - you're terribly naive to think that once more tax money comes in, the tax rate on property will decrease.
Sorry, I assumed L.A. because that seems to be a popular place of exit for California conservatives. I’m not sure what you mean by your second comment.
Suburb to suburb commuting doesn’t mean you live in the middle of nowhere.
Say what you will, but I’ll bet there are more people in the suburbs of Chicago that have this problem then there are in many small cities. Looking at it from a numerical perspective, the suburb to suburb dimension should be what we are discussing. Otherwise, we’re talking about a much smaller percentage of the people with a problem (or should I say ‘whiners’?).
The weak dollar is part of it, but only part of it. Global supply and demand is a bigger part. Also, I never said that taxes WOULD decrease, I said they should in theory. I’ve been alive too long to think that government won’t try to find a way to get more of my money, but that will happen regardless of whether more people move into my city. At least it might slow the bleeding, and if enough other conservatives move in, we might actually be able to start cutting.
“I’m not sure what you mean by your second comment.”
Since posting that comment I went back and read more of the postings of your discussion with others. I agree with #99. He did however leave out the word “Troll”.
Terribly nice of him.
Where do the poor go when you drive them out of the affordable housing in the city?
There’s always affordable housing. It just may not be the nicest. If you could be poor and live comfortably, why would anyone bother to work hard?
lol...Minneapolis has more crime per capita than Los Angeles. Much more as a matter of fact.
Latest 2006 Crimes per 100,000 People:
| Minneapolis, MN | Los Angeles, CA | National | |
| Murder: | 15.2 | 12.4 | 7 |
| Forcible Rape: | 27.3 | 32.2 | |
| Robbery: | 806.8 | 370 | 205.8 |
| Aggravated Assault: | 755.7 | 377.2 | 336.5 |
| Burglary: | 1552.3 | 524.8 | 813.2 |
| Larceny Theft: | 3493.2 | 1539.2 | 2601.7 |
| Vehicle Theft: | 965.9 | 654.4 | 501.5 |
Then that’s a compliment to Los Angeles, because I feel safe here.
Thank-You!
I can now stop banging my head against the keyboard.
You might feel that way, but the stats don’t lie. Some of those numbers are double and triple the per capita crime stats.
Also, it helps that some of the worst places in L.A. are techinically outside the city proper (Compton, Inglewood, etc.) But still, I’m sure the hype about crime in L.A. is far worse than the truth. A lot of people seem to think NYC has a lot of crime, when in reality it’s one of the safest cities in America.
Like I said, I’ll bet L.A. really isn’t so bad. I’m also confident the bulk of those crimes were in North Minneapolis and the area around E. Lake St. Most of the city is very safe. I’ve been to Los Angeles for both business and pleasure, and all of the West side seems very nice. A lot of the worst parts of South and East L.A. are technically outside the city, whereas the suburban San Fernando Valley is in it, so I’m not surprised.
Check out St. Louis.
St. Louis and Los Angeles Comparative Crime Ratios per 100,000 People
Latest 2006 Crimes per 100,000 People:
| St. Louis, MO | Los Angeles, CA | National | |
| Murder: | 37.2 | 12.4 | 7 |
| Forcible Rape: | 97.15 | 27.3 | 32.2 |
| Robbery: | 907.2 | 370 | 205.8 |
| Aggravated Assault: | 1439.1 | 377.2 | 336.5 |
| Burglary: | 2453.3 | 524.8 | 813.2 |
| Larceny Theft: | 6802.4 | 1539.2 | 2601.7 |
| Vehicle Theft: | 2492.2 | 654.4 | 501.5 |
Okay, great. Good for Los Angeles. I never disputed that. In fact, it supports either or both of my contentions that a) Los Angeles really isn’t so bad and b) L.A.’s stats are distorted because many of its worst neighborhoods are technically outside the city limits.
One should keep in mind that while the stats may be absolutely correct, they are as reported by the various local policing authorities. There may be a compelling political reason to have low crime statistics, so one jurisdiction may use a slightly different definition of a particular crime than another.
I'm not disagreeing that it's silly to be excessively wasteful. But this hyperbola about "burning up the planet" and 'destroying earth' sounds like it came right out of AlGore's global warming bible. We are not burning up the planet and we are not destroying the earth. Those are the kinds of phrases used by the left to try to legitimize the socialist movement.
It's much more palatable to allow the government to steal half you pay when it's done to save the earth.
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