See, I think it will be a landslide....I just don’t know who will win.
See, I think it will be a landslide....I just don’t know who will win.
The last two elections were Red/Blue, and rather evenly balanced. But that isn't cast in concrete forever; it requires a distinct difference between the candidates. We're unhappy with McCain because he's too eager to "reach across the aisle." That makes him vulnerable in the "Red" states. Obama tended to win primaries in "Red" southern states with big populations of blacks but with Republican majorities in the last two elections.So this will be a "purple" rather than a red/blue election - and whoever wins anywhere can, by and large, win anywhere else. There is no reason to think that such an election will necessarily be a nail-biter one election night - even if the polls look like it going in.
Think of it this way: even if two people toss honest 20 coins, so that the expected value of each is ten heads, you would not expect both of them actually to throw exactly ten heads. One would, probably, throw a different number than ten - and the other would, probably, throw a different number than that.
For the reasons the author of the piece cited, and because Obama did so poorly in the last few primaries, I think Obama will lose the general election. And more likely big than narrowly.