or over 50 years about 35 percent of the voters have been Demorats and 35 percent have been Republicans, and the remainder are nearly all independents.
Every election from 1952 on has been decided by Independents who tend to vote in 8 year cycles. There is the peak year for a party and then four years later the minor year for a party. Then the indpencdents change parties.
1952 was the Republian year and Ike won. But 8 years later it was the Democrat year and Kennedy won. But 8 years after that it was a peak Republican year and the Republican that had lost in 1960 won in 1968. But 8 years later it was the Democrat year and Carter won. 8 years later it was the Republian year and Reagan won a landslide. But 8 years later in 1992 it was the Democrats turn and Clinton won.
Then after 8 more years it was the Republican's turn and Bush won in 2000. Now in 2008 it is the Democrat year.
only once in the last 56 years has the the rotation failed But it has never failed in the peak party year. In 1980 which was a Democrat minor year the combination of Reagan and Carter gave the Republicans a victory.
But never in 56 years has a party lost an election in its peak year. And just that once in a minor year.
This is a peak Democrat year. So how could a Democrat fail to win? For that to happen the Democrats would have to nominate a far left liberal that was too far to the left for the Independents. And the Republicans would have to nominate a RINO that would be pretty close to the independents positions in this Peak Demorat year.
Guess what has happened this year.. The Democrats have nominated their most liberal candidate ever and the Republicans nominated a certified RINO.
NO CONSERVATIVE had ever won in a peak Democrat year. NEVER!!!!!
And you are wondering why McCain is going after those you think are to the left of center. You are going to sit on your hands and teach those damned Republicans who nominated McCain a lesson.
I can't imagine anything dumber. Every candidate that hopes to win has go get those voters on his side of the political center and at least a few from the other side of center.
Those foolish right wingers who are refusing to vote for McCain are just moving the center of the political spectrum to the left. Now if McCain loses to Obama the conclusion must be that McCain was not left enough to win. And if McCain wins the conclusion will be that Obama was not right enough to win.
The winner always moves the other party in the winning direction.
It is pretty simple. In 2004 there were 36 million independent voters and Bush got 18 million of them. Bush also got 44 million Republican votes. That was Bush's 62 million votes. About 11 million of those 44 million Republicans are died in the wool conservatives and will not likely vote for McCain.
If RINO McCain can get more of the independents than Bush did... and he can, and far left Obama can't get as many independents as Kerry did then we have what the polls are showing. You will note that every vote that in 2004 was for the democrat and moves to McCAin this year. is worth 2 conserivative sit on their hands votes. Why? Because the person that changes from voting for the Democrat to the Republcan takes one vote away from the Democrat and adds one vote for the Republican. While the conservative who does not vote just takes one vote away from the Republican.
Thus 6 million former Kerry voters who switch ot McCain are worth 12 million former Bush voters who just sit on their hands.
The lastest infow= shows McCain getting 58 percent of the independent votes. That is about 24.5 million independent votes for McCain .. 6.5 million more than Bush got in 2004.
But McCain is losing 11 million conservatives.. That leaves him with 33 million Repubican votes and 24.5 million independent votes. That makes a total of 57.5 million votes for McCain. But if you take 6.5 million away from Obama that leaves obama with 55.5 milion votes. McCain wins by 2 million. But that is not the worst of Obama's problems.
The polls also show that McCain will get about 5 milion white working class Democrat votes. That brings mcCain up to a total of 62.5 million votes.
But Obama loses those five million Democrats .. that takes him down to 50.5 million and he loses to McCain 62.5 to 50.5. McCain then had a huge victory of 62.5 million to 50.5 million for Obama.WAy beyond Bush in 2000 or 2004.
And you wonder why McCain is playing up to indpendents and Democrats.
One other thing you need to understand ... YOU AND THOSE LIKE YOU ARE NO LONGER A FACTOR. The 11 milion Conservatives who are not going to vote have moved the center of the Political spectrum 11 million votes to the left. And McCain has moved 6 Million independents to the Republican side of the Center. And Conservatives are no longer in the contest. They are totally unimportant.
It may suprise you to know what candidates try to win those that are going to vote. They could give a rats rump about those who are not going to vote.
What does that mean for you and those who think like you? It means that no presidential candidate in the future will listen to anthing you say or do.
If You are unable to keep McCAin from winning. REPUBLICANS will know they LONGER NEED CONSERVATIVES TO WIN. And there are 3 times as many indpendents as there are conservsatives. .. So converting a few million Independents to Republicans is a lot more effective than kissing the hind end of Conservatives.
What you are doing is taking yourselves out of the presidential contest. No candidate for much of anything will ever pay any attention to you again. In 8 years conservatives will be where Nader is today.. An unimportant JOKE!!!
YOu see the leftists decided to teach Gore a lesson in 2000. They voted for Nader about 3 million of them. You see Gore was not Green enough for the left. And what happened? The nation moved to the right with a Bush victory. That is what happened. So the Greeies came back to the Democratic party in 2004. But Bush had moved the nation to the right. So all the Greenie votes were not enough to elect Kerry. In 2000 they could have elected Gore but by 2003 they could not elect Kerry. This year the Greenies are just a joke.
So McCain has done what it takes to win in a Democratic peak year and the right wing is going to go pout.
They are just throwing away their political future.
Nader and his Greeies moved the nation to the Right in 2000. And now the Conservatives are in the process of moving the nation to the left in 2008.
The one problem with these models is the same problem that the Dems had in the primaries:
Obama is brining in millions of new, young voters and they do not show up in the historical statistics.
In many of the Dem primaries, Obama won by numbers that were equal to the total Dem primary vote in those states in 04. In other words, Clinton was claiming the number who voted in 04, and Obama was getting an equal number of new votes. Dem primary counts literally doubled over 04 numbers; whereas GOP primary counts remained static.
[Across the aisle, McCain was NOT wow-ing and energizing millions of new, young voters to vote for him. Most of the primary votes McCain got were from the standard Republicans and Dem cross-overs who helped him in certain states. McCain consistently lost 22-27% of the Republican vote, even after his nomination was certain. McCain cannot win in November unless he gets 90-95% of the Republican vote, and currently the polls show he is only getting 80% of that vote.]
If Obama continues that trend, he could bring in upwards of 60 million new, young voters over the total number of voters in 04.
That is the great unknown which could throw this election into a tailspin.
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The second factor, for McCain (not so important for Obama) is the VP selection. McCain’s age + VP selection will be influential in bringing in or repelling the conservative vote.