"Personally... I give us one chance in three"
Posted on 07/04/2008 1:22:39 PM PDT by Flavius
THERE is, I would guess, somewhere between a 30 and 40 per cent chance that the Bush administration will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of the year.
This is, naturally, a personal judgment. It is based on two weeks of intense conversations I have had with American national security figures.
Washington, all the capitals of Europe and Canberra are united in their determination to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran are obvious. Its leaders are theologically motivated and believe Israel should be wiped off the map. It is the chief global sponsor of terrorism through groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Middle East experts believe a nuclear-armed Iran would soon be followed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and perhaps others as well.
Nobody should underestimate what this means.
A senior US Defence Department official told me: "We know how nukes worked in a two-player situation (the US and Russia), or even on the Indian subcontinent. But we don't know how it works in a multiplayer situation. All those countries with nascent nuclear programs: they'd all be very vulnerable to pre-emption.
"The risk of catastrophic misuse rises dramatically. I don't think the international community has addressed it with sufficient urgency."
The same official describes a nuclear-armed Iran as "a very immediate existential threat to Israel, because of the short distances involved and its inability to withstand even one nuclear strike".
The argument against striking Iranian nuclear facilities is twofold. The first is that the US still has significant diplomatic and financial measures it can take to dissuade the Iranians. It should exhaust those first.
(Excerpt) Read more at theaustralian.news.com.au ...
The only diplomacy that will work is diplomacy accompanied by a thumb on Iran’s jugular.
We should close Hormuz to Iranian traffic. Pick an excuse, and do it. Don’t open it until Ahmadinejad has left office and his successor has closed down the weapons program. Don’t take IAEA’s word for anything, they are the ones who missed every nuclear weapons program there ever was.
Thats how you do diplomacy, when the alternative is all out war. And while you are doing it, you had better be preparing for all out war. Surgical strikes? Plan on all out war. Anything you do with any teeth in it is likely to trigger all out war, because even if you do nothing at all Iran is headed for all out war. So our choice is all out war at a time of their choosing, or ours.
Nuke armed Iran changes nothing. The oil patch must be secure and little else matters.
It would surprise the hell out of me to see Bush bomb Irans nuclear sites. Frankly, I don’t think he has the smarts or the courage to do it and then, pull it off with the American public.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I would like to have seen Montana.......
This is a well-written article, overall.
Plenty of fat Anerican women to marry, and cook rabbits for him!
Bush will NOT bomb Iran. He wants to see how the election turns out first. So, the decision to bomb Iran has been tabled until after November 4th. On November 5th, Bush and his team will wake up and look at their decision tree: If Obama is elected, they will give him their plans and leave it to them (i.e. Pontious Pilate giving the decision to Herod). Bush, Cheney and the rest will say, “Obama is so smart. Obama is so loved. Let’s see what he will do with this. Let it be on his head.”
If McCain is elected, well then, they already know he knows his way around bombs and jets and has no compunction about kicking the living s**t out of those hostage taking Mullahs. In the case of a McCain presidency, Bush will ask McCain what he wants to do and when he wants to do it and will follow McCain’s wishes. Bush knows that he and McCain come from the same perspective on this and that Bush’s legacy on this will be safer in McCain’s hands.
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