Posted on 07/01/2008 5:26:16 PM PDT by ETL
It now has been four years since Dr. William Graham, Science Advisor to President Ronald W. Reagan and Chairman of the General Advisory Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament, and a distinguished panel completed a study of High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) and its potential effects upon this country. The conclusions of this study are the most frightening I have seen concerning modern-day threats.
Few have heard of it because the report has yet to be made public. The reason it has not been made public is simple: if EMP were understood by the American people, the next logical question would be what steps the government has taken to reduce the possibility of an EMP attack in this country. To date little has been done. When the American people realize as much, the outrage will be palpable.
EMP is electromagnetic radiation from an explosion (especially a nuclear explosion). The worst of the pulse lasts for only a second but any unprotected electrical equipment - and anything connected to electrical cables, which act as giant lightning rods or antennas - are affected by it. If a nation with a nuclear bomb and the ability to explode it high above an American city were to do so, it would have a massive effect in all directions. Almost immediately all communications systems in the country would be disrupted completely. No radio. No television. No internet. Indeed no electricity at all. Most of the country literally would be in the dark with no possibility of recovering any electrical facilities. We would not be able to run our cars because the gasoline pumps would not work. Water distribution systems would not work.
While there would be few immediate deaths connected with such an explosion, the long-term consequences would be profound. The national power grid would be rendered completely impotent. It would take many months or even years to have it up and running but with no power tools available, accomplishing this likely would be impossible.
There would be no telecommunications. Railroads would be unable to run. Even if the few steam locomotives left were employed, there would be no signal systems and no ability to switch tracks. Our entire financial system would be disrupted because computers would shut down. I could go on but you get the picture. Recovery would depend upon the restoration of electric power, the possibility of which would depend upon whether a part of the country was unaffected and that would depend upon where the bomb explodes.
Graham has made many recommendations which should be implemented to avoid such an attack. (Would that the public now understand the urgency to ensure that Iran does not acquire a nuclear device. Iran already has successfully tested a missile capable of carrying one into the high atmosphere).
Graham asserts that it is essential to pursue intelligence, interdiction, deterrence and defense to discourage an EMP attack. The highest priority is to prevent an attack. Our policies should shape the global environment to reduce incentives to create EMP weapons. We need to make it difficult and dangerous to acquire them.
Graham argues that we need to begin immediately a program to protect critical components of key infrastructures. We must maintain the ability to monitor and evaluate the condition of critical infrastructures. Graham reminds us that the absence of information can make things worse through inaction or incorrect action. Graham points to the blackout of August 13, 2003 as an example of the absence of information leading to inaction. We need to recognize an EMP attack and understand how its effects differ from natural disruptions.
America needs a plan to carry out the systematic recovery of key infrastructures. We must demonstrate the will and ability to recover from any attack. Toward that end we need a special team which frequently reports to Congress. We need to define the responsibilities of the Federal, state and local governments. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) needs to develop a plan for the country in conjunction with local governments and the Pentagon needs a clear plan to keep the Armed Forces functioning in the event of an attack. DHS must establish a senior leadership position with the accountability, authority and appropriate resources to defend against the most serious threats. Graham says that an EMP attack is a credible, potentially catastrophic threat to the United States. He says that the U.S. strategy should balance prevention, preparation, protection and recovery.
The Administration of President George W. Bush has known this for years, yet almost nothing has been done about it. Had he released this report and enforced the panel's recommendations he would be remembered as the President who saved America. Some scientists think the report may be released next month. If so it would behoove Bush to spend his remaining six months in office implementing Graham's recommendations. He cannot begin a moment too soon.
Paul M. Weyrich is Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Foundation.
Article:
The Next High-Tech Threat to U.S. Security -by Paul M. Weyrich
http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=48973533-18B4-4903-BF1A-F083C43B1667
Longer than that.
What I don’t understand is why China would attack it’s best customer?
Vacumn tube technology is relatively impervious. Not so with solid state. Not many 'valves' in my PC, even if I do have a couple of old radios with them around.
Most cars would fail to run, but that wouldn’t matter in a nuclear war. Most PCs would not run due to lack of grid power, not even laptops after a couple hours, and the Internet would be down anyway. Wouldn’t be any news, and nobody would care beacuse everybody would be dead or up to their ankles in radioactive ash and about to run out of SPAM. That is the fifties scenario and anything less would be not nuclear war, not Armageddon, but a reason for FEMA to swing into action and spend another $ trillion on trivia.
My point was that integrated circuit electronics are far more sensitive to EPM than the tube stuff around in the 50s.
Tests run on that older technology do not reveal the inherent weaknesses in more modern systems.
The reason many new cars would fail to operate is that their onboard computers would be fried, not the wiring. Similarly, the computers controlling the power grid, rail transportation, etc are the weak link.
A device aimed at creating a pulse need not be physically destructive in the sense of a near-ground airburst, the objective is to create a widespread pulse and damage/destroy unshielded electronics, much as the neutron bomb was to be aimed at living targets, selectively killing people without doing major damage to inanimate objects.
Note the detonation would take place at the upper margins of the atmosphere, and not near the ground, to get the widest coverage with the pulse.
This is far more surgical than the old MAD scenario.
Just because they don’t follow up doesn’t mean they will not be fried by return mail. They might as well shoot everything. The single shot attack is nothing but suicide.
Forget the fact that the threat has been around for 50 years. There are a lot of people who aren't aware of it. Also, things have changed a bit in 50 years. The situation is now light years more complicated, particular with China and Russia both making major moves on the world stage and with all the modern (and vulnerable) technology we have around today.
Why forget that this phenomenon has been known for half a century? We know this and a lot of other even more useful stuff. It doesn’t really matter if the hordes of graduates of the Gummint schools don’t know this or anything else. They know about Global Warming, cucumbers, and that Republicans are the cause of all ills. So they’ll be surprised some day and will never know what happened. We’ll know. We’ll say, ‘hey we just got nuked and we are dead, but whoever we think did this is even deader.’
EMP testing is ongoing on a variety of fronts. There are fairly large simulators in use that can test currrent systems and technology. Also, unlike the 50’s, software and computing power allows for modeling of effects based on known empirical data.
Thanks for the sane response.
Maybe one is all they have.
The single shot attack is nothing but suicide.
So is flying a plane into a tall building.
In the case where we have groups being fed information by our old, cold war enemies, who have little to lose and paradise to gain, who might be nuked to ash in return, we still will have been spanked, to the benefit of those same old cold war enemies who would gladly take advantage of the mayhem to consolidate their power in other regions, if they did not decide to mess with us at home.
Hardening critical systems or even back-ups could conceiveably be done as part of upgrades to the power grid which should be done anyway.
This would be the best bet for terrorists as an EMP can miss by many many miles and still deliver a deadly blow, where as a traditional nuclear blast needs to be spot on.
If they have only one then they would be suicidal and their families should be concerned enough to turn them in so they don’t all get fried to the fifth relation.
WTC911 could have had a nuclear response, but after a couple days it would no longer have been anything but cold. In the heat of the moment the birds could have flown and those who would have been on the other end know that. Most of their leaders were quick to commiserate because they knew.
And, hardening of electronics has been a very active program since Sputnik, which happened to be the beginning of semiconductor electronics as well as ICBMs.
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