Posted on 06/25/2008 5:40:03 PM PDT by keepitreal
A well-known Republican research firm argues that the voter pool tapped for the new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll was too skewed toward Democrats -- a challenge that causes the GOP strategists to question the double-digit lead the survey gave Barack Obama over John McCain.
The case against the poll, laid out in a memo sent out today by Public Opinion Strategies, in turn sparked a response from survey director Susan Pinkus, who stood by its methodology and findings.
(snip)
Pinkus, like most nonpartisan pollsters, rejects that notion. Discussing the current survey, she says, "The poll was weighted slightly, where necessary, to conform to the Census Bureau’s proportions of sex, race, ethnicity, age and national region. The poll was NOT weighted for party identification since party ID is a moving variable that changes from one election to another, or when one party may be favored more than the other."
As a result, the survey simply asked respondents their party affiliation or inclination, and came up with this breakdown: 39% Democratic, 22% Republican, 8% something else, 4% refused to say.
There's the rub, insists the memo from Bill McInturff, Liz Harrington and David Kanevsky. They write that these figures, and the 17 percentage-point gap between the two parties, are "greatly out of line with what most other surveys are reporting."
(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
Wow, you don’t say.
ping
Knock me over with a feather!!
Biased, you say?! Go figure!!
/sarc
So even though there were 17% more dems used, he only had a 15% lead? LOL thats got to hurt...
“39% Democratic, 22% Republican, 8% something else, 4% refused to say.”
39+22+8+4 = 73%
Am I confused or are we still missing 27%?
39+22+8+4 = 73%
Am I confused or are we still missing 27%?
Just another publick skul gradiate doing poools.
Am I confused or are we still missing 27%?
No, they gave the wrong answer and were hung up on.
With Obamasama at only 15 points ahead, that probably means a coming Republican landslide.
The Pincus lady doesn't have a clue.
” “39% Democratic, 22% Republican, 8% something else, 4% refused to say.”
39+22+8+4 = 73%
Am I confused or are we still missing 27%? “
Check Fort Marcy Park.
give them credit for at least having the b@lls to report this...
Probably 27% Independent.
Yes. Later in the article it does discuss a 27 percent independent figure.
A poll is "NOT weighted" for whatever variable suits the pollsters political leftist leanings. At this point months in advance of election day, polls are "not weighted" in such a way to give Obomba a BIG advantage to make pubs depressed and less likely to contribute, volunteer, etc.
LOL
How did this woman get into this field? She seems to be incapable of understanding basic reality.
The day the Democratic convention ended in San Francisco in 1984, the Newsweek poll showed Walter Mondale 18 points ahead of President Ronald Reagan. Mondale ended up getting clobbered, 49 states to one.
Besides, who cares about Registered voters 4 months out?
Oil is the key to this election. It keeps going up like this, it'll be $200/barrel at the election and Dems are going to have a lot to answer for.
People shelling out $100 per tank is something they can understand.
Course, why they aren't more po'd at the dems at 140/barrel is beyond me.
Of course it was oversampled. Only an idiot would think otherwise. They've done it before and when one candidate comes out with an overnight 10+ pt lead, its time to ask how the poll was conducted.
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