Posted on 06/18/2008 10:10:46 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
(CNSNews.com) - Reports circulating on the Internet tell of an oil field spanning parts of western North Dakota and eastern Montana where 400 billion barrels of oil supposedly are just waiting to be tapped. However, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) tells Cybercast News Service that those huge estimates are "a myth."
A USGS report issued in April estimates that there are between 3 billion to 4.3 billion barrels of oil in what is referred to as "the Bakken Formation" -- well below the 400 billion barrels discussed on the Web, but up from the previous estimate of 151 million barrels made in 1995.
Richard Pollastro, Bakken Formation task leader at the USGS, said the myth stems from a 1999 draft report -- never published -- by a now-deceased USGS employee, Leigh Price. Price estimated that the Bakken Formation holds up to 400 billion barrels of oil. To put that in perspective, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, has about 260 billion barrels of known oil reserves.
Price, however, died in 2000, before his study could be peer-reviewed and published, and the Bakken Formation became the fool's gold of the oil industry.
"Unfortunately, in many instances, we are still trying to explain and defend our assessment versus the inappropriate and irresponsible posting of Dr. Price's 'draft report,'" Pollastro told Cybercast News Service.
According to Jonathon Kolak, a USGS scientist and information specialist, the discrepancy between Price's 1999 estimates and the agency's 2008 findings arises from the fact that Price was trying to assess the "oil generation potential" of the oil found in the pores of rocks and shale in the Bakken field, as well as the total content of how much oil might be pooling up - or "oil in place."
"What Dr. Price was looking at was 'oil generation potential,' and then, from that, trying to make an estimate of 'oil in place,'" said Kolak. "Those terms are very distinct from 'undiscovered technically recoverable resources.'"
The latest study, which was commissioned by U.S. Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), is an estimate of how much "technically recoverable" oil and gas is available -- i.e, how much oil can actually be recovered using today's technology.
Kolak also explained that the 25-fold increase between the 1995 estimates and the 2008 assessment is due to two factors: an improved understanding of the geology and advances in drilling technology.
"Our understanding of the geology improved significantly because of the time difference between the studies," he said. "There has been some drilling since then, there has been a lot more information that has come out, other people have conducted studies, and also USGS researchers have conducted studies."
Moreover, drillers are utilizing directional drilling in the Bakken fields, a way of drilling at an angle to tap previously unrecoverable reservoirs.
"If you've been out to western North Dakota, you don't need a USGS report to know that there's oil there because you can see from all the drilling activity that there's a lot of energy development going on in western North Dakota," Dorgan spokesman Justin Kitch told Cybercast News Service .
Kitch admits that comparing Price's 1999 study to the April USGS study is like comparing "apples and oranges."
"But certainly it's nice to have an up-to-date assessment of the amount of oil that's technically recoverable in the Bakken," he said.
In 2006, Marathon Oil bought 200,000 acres in the Bakken to drill over 300 wells. This past May, after the report was released, Texas-based XTO Energy bought 352,000 net acres in the Bakken Shale for $1.9 billion.
The federal government, meanwhile, said only a small proportion of the oil available with today's technology is economically viable for recovery.
"If you're drilling the Bakken, it's pretty easy to drill somewhere in there and at least see some oil, but the question is: Is there enough there to get out and actually be economically recoverable?" Kolak asked.
At the end of 2007, about 105 million barrels of oil had been produced from the Bakken Formation.
The USGS, meanwhile, considers any release or dissemination of Price's unpublished report to be "inappropriate and irresponsible."
The USGS survey took 21 years to complete. The original lead author passed away before it was finished, he and his successor knew/know more than any other person in the world about this field. It is a rock solid analysis according to the oil commodities and equities speculation forums that I frequent. ANYONE who says otherwise at this point is to be assumed to be guilty of being a scam artist unless they can prove otherwise...
The government doesn’t know if there is 4 billion or 400 billion. The oil companies evidently think there is oil down there worth going after or they wouldn’t be jumping through hoops to get it.
They are expanding pipeline networks up there like gangbusters. They must think they have a good reason or they wouldn’t do it.
The weasel words are “accessible by current technologies”. Actually, they had to develop new technologies to get anything at all out of Bakken, so thats neither here nor there. Oil companies are developing new techniques every day, if you work in the industry you know that. If you don’t, you may imagine you have a clue but you probably don’t.
The biggest difference is that they are in the Dakotas. If this was anywhere else they’d never get permission. If Bakken was in western Colorado, or off-shore California, or the Alaskan North Slope, we’d be told every day that it wasn’t worth going after. Nothing there. Not wise.
We won’t know until it’s explored.
3-4 billion barrels is still not chump change.
In my layman’s opinion, if I were betting my money, I’d still wager that the current estimate is conservative.
And how about all of these pontificating heads spending time talking about Utah’s massive reserves of clean coal? Our coal fired plants are pretty clean now. We need more of them.
And how about GWB issuing an executive order canceling Clinton’s and opening Utah back up? Bush’s record as proactive pro-energy is pretty shabby.
Kolak also explained that the 25-fold increase between the 1995 estimates and the 2008 assessment is due to two factors: an improved understanding of the geology and advances in drilling technology.
So, which is it?
You, Farley!
Ping for our earlier discussion on this field.
Because it doesn't need to be 400 billion barrels to be worth drilling. 3.6 billion is still more than worthwhile and has been the cause of significantly increased drilling and leases for several years before this report was even released.
This was a separate survey and Leigh Price's report was published after his death by the USGS and is available free online at:
Diagenesis and Fracture Development in the Bakken Formation, Williston Basin: Implications for Reservoir Quality in the Middle Member
By Janet K. Pitman, Leigh C. Price, and Julie A. LeFever
U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1653
http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/p1653/p1653.pdf
First printing November 2001
Gg right ahead and spend 10 million dollars to recover the couple hundred barrels under your house.
The facts on this Field seem to be really garbled...
It is 400 MMMBO in place. Being an unconventional reservoir, the recovery factor is 5 to 10%, so that would be 20 to 40 MMMBO recoverable. A typical conventional oil field has a recovery that varies from 30 to 70%.
All President Bush really has to do is sign an Executive Order calling the CTFC to investigate the oil futures market and the manipulators will flee causing the oil bubble to explode!
WHY doesn’t he DO THIS NOW?
President Bush telling Congress- DRILL! LIVE THREAD- Rose Garden press conference at 10:30 AM
There is not less oil than the earlier report.
Do not confuse the “oil in place” estimate with the “technically recoverable oil” estimate. The second is a small fraction of the first. It is the “technically recoverable” portion that has greatly increased over the earlier estimate. The total oil in place estimate was not part of this later report.
You can read the Fact Sheet by USGS for yourself at:
Assessment of Undiscovered Oil Resources in the Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation, Williston Basin Province, Montana and North Dakota, 2008
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3021/pdf/FS08-3021_508.pdf
Really?
And George Soros told you this....
There's a great source.........
MARK HULBERT
Oil isn't free -- Commentary: Price vulnerable to factors other than supply and demand
**********************EXCERPT*************************
“Gg right ahead and spend 10 million dollars to recover the couple hundred barrels under your house.”
ROTFL ... gee, thanks for your permission. Actually, it would be far, far less than you stated. It’s only about $2k a foot to drill and where I live it won’t be miles beneath the surface. Numbers courtesy DOE.
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