Posted on 06/09/2008 5:03:28 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
If McCain wins PA, he wins by 2 electoral votes, 270-268.
Ain't happenin' fellas.....Chizzburgers belong to me...only.
Methodology: Bat orders via the drive-thru, with "everythang"....Bat drives the 10 minutes to the homefront dining amphitheater....Bat then dumps/tosses the pickles, onions, tomatoes and proceeds to consume said Chizzburger with the absorbed flavors of the dumped stuff.
It works; trust me...I guess it's what you'd call a 'plain double-double'...
Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.
Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
---|---|---|
7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
-PJ
If McCain wins California, he doesn't need it -- the election is a blowout. Yes, there's a 12% chance McCain win California, but if he wins California, he'll also win Pennsylvania, Michigan etc. Because the correlation is high, I'm not sure taking 12% of 55 ev's is very meaningful.
McCain is not going to win PA, period. Philly machine will make sure of that.
Taking 12% of California's 55 EV's is the basic calculation, but the probability of winning is based on calculating the S-curve over 20,000 random simulations and seeing where the 270-point is. If McCain wins California, that will raise his probability of winning, but he will only win California 12% of the time in the simulations.
-PJ
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