Posted on 05/31/2008 10:40:32 AM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008 100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...FIRST STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...QUICKLY FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...ALREADY MOVING INLAND...
AT 1 PM EDT...1700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE....AND THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA..IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 195 MILES ...315 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 100 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME
I wonder if this one would even have been given a name ten years ago.
Let’s try to keep these threads in General/Chat/Weather until life or property is threatened.
When would that be? We need some guidelines.
12 hours before landfall? Does it have to be US landfall?
Last year I noticed at least 3 storms that would not have been named in times past. But they have to meet their quota (prediction) so they name every system that pops up.
The criteria for naming a storm is quantifiable. If it doesn't meet that criteria, it remains an invest or an unnamed tropical depression.
If they lied for the reasons you state, then how do you explain that we've had less named storms than predicted during the past two years?
My point is they didn’t start naming subtropical systems until 2002, before then they were just classified by number. So when they predict “x” amount of named storms, they now include subtropical systems, but years ago, they wouldn’t have been included as a named storm. The lines blur about what exactly is a subtropical system and there’s wiggle room in classifying one.
There’s some good info on history of subtropical storms in the Atlantic at this link:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/subtropical.asp
But as far as Arthur, the bulletin states the winds are nearly 40 mph...what does that mean “nearly”...if 39 MPH is the determining speed and somebody uses a word like “nearly” what am I to think. Plus the storm won’t be intensifying, it will dissapate quickly (per the bulletin), yet they name it.
As to your question about us having less than usual predicted named storms, well if they didn’t name “marginal” systems, we’d have even less named storms and their predictions would be more faulty. So there is motive to name a storm.
“Last year I noticed at least 3 storms that would not have been named in times past. But they have to meet their quota (prediction) so they name every system that pops up.”
Yes, I can confirm I read the same thing last years.
Storms were given names that should not have been named to conceal their phony weather predictions. Instead, they made everything worse by showing themselves to be weather predictors without sufficient information. The cover-up was both laughable and insulting.
But I agree that subtropical storms should be in a different category. We're really more concerned about the systems that can become hurricanes.
I think your objection about "nearly 40 mph winds" is misplaced.
From the NOAA discussion:
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
I just hate knots as a windspeed. MPH works as well over water as it does on land. Why do we insist on using a different measuring system?
Have the cracks in your lawn swallowed up your kids again?
Wishing Authur would wheel around to TX as a TS. This year has a really bad drought feel to it.
Only two of them, and one crawled out. No biggie.
The one that ran up Onslow Bay, NC was reporting big winds and I'm reading the buoys as the “Hurricane” ran over them and saying “Where, where”
It's also odd the number of buoys that are down or missing. Replaced, repaired? “When we get around to it.”
Wasn’t Arthur orgininally Alma too?
Wasn’t Arthur orgininally Alma too?
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
We could use a “little” water in STX too.
Watchin’...
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