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Upbeat CIA assessment on Al-Qaeda challenged
afp ^ | 5/31/08 | afp

Posted on 05/30/2008 7:15:01 PM PDT by mdittmar

CIA director Michael Hayden came under stiff challenge for portraying Al-Qaeda as on the defensive after global setbacks, even in its safe havens along the Afghan-Pakistani border.

Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, Jay Rockefeller, said Hayden's upbeat appraisal was not consistent with intelligence assessments provided his committee over the past year.

"In fact, I have seen nothing, including classified intelligence reporting, that would lead me to this conclusion," Rockefeller said in a scathing letter to the Central Intelligence Agency director.

Hayden's assessment -- one of the most positive since the September 11, 2001 attacks -- comes less than a year after US intelligence warnings that Al-Qaeda had regrouped in the border area and was plotting attacks against the west.

"On balance, we are doing pretty well," Hayden told the Washington Post in an interview published Friday, while warning that Al-Qaeda remains a serious threat.

The list of accomplishments, he said, includes: "Near strategic defeat of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for Al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for Al-Qaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam."

But Rockefeller cited a litany of public statements by top intelligence officials over the past year that emphasized Al-Qaeda's regeneration in the Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Earlier this month, the acting director the National Counter-Terrorism Center, Michael Leiter, told lawmakers that US efforts had not succeeded in stopping "core Al-Qaeda plotting."

"We're better at disrupting it, but we have not disrupted the senior leadership that exists in the FATA, and we have also not stopped the organization from promulgating a message which has successfully gained them more recruits," Rockefeller quoted him as saying.

Bruce Riedel, a longtime former CIA analyst now with Brookings Institution, called Hayden's remarks "a pretty large dish of wishful thinking."

"I think that the administration very much wants to paint a picture of success, particularly as it gets close to the end of eight years," he said.

"So I'm not surprised we're seeing an effort to portray it in the most optimistic possible way," he said.

Al-Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri remain at large, and the US intelligence estimate in July 2007 said Al-Qaeda had regenerated a new cadre of leadership in Pakistan.

Tom Sanderson, a terrorism expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Hayden appeared to be drawing on undisclosed evidence that shows Al-Qaeda's leadership is reeling.

"Nonetheless, it does take people by surprise, even people who are monitoring this, that there is such a stark difference between the assessment last year, with significant though not overwhelming tactical successes in the interim," he said.

Hayden said Al-Qaeda has lost three senior officers this year, including two who succumbed "to violence." The Post said that was an apparent references to strikes by unmanned Predator aircraft that killed Abu Laith al-Libi and Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi.

"The ability to kill and capture key members of Al-Qaeda continues, and keeps them off balance -- even in their best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border," he said.

Hayden said bin Laden is also losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and has largely lost his ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit new members.

Riedel said that while al-Qaeda has suffered serious setbacks in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, there was a danger in "glossing over some of Al-Qaeda's remarkable strengths."

"The safe haven that they have developed in Pakistan over the last two or three years is getting bigger, not smaller, and that safe haven is the most important thing for Al-Qaeda," he said.

It was from Pakistan that Al-Qaeda launched attacks in western Europe, including the 2005 attacks on the London underground and a 2006 attempt to bring down 10 jumbo jets over the Atlantic.

A posting on jihadist website al-Hesbah threatened an attack bigger than September 11 before President George W. Bush leaves office, according to the SITE intel group.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; cia; counterterrorism; globaljihad; gwot; hayden; progress
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1 posted on 05/30/2008 7:15:01 PM PDT by mdittmar
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To: mdittmar; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Dog

Great stuff, reiterated here. Check it out.


2 posted on 05/30/2008 7:17:18 PM PDT by BOBTHENAILER (One by one, in small groups or in whole armies, we don't care how we do it, but we're gonna getcha)
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To: mdittmar

Rockefeller is a ‘RAT. He’s obligated to say stupid things like this. The fact that he’s also a moron doesn’t really come in to play. He’s doing it for the party.


3 posted on 05/30/2008 7:18:38 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (De-Globalize yourself !)
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To: mdittmar
Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, Jay Rockefeller, said Hayden's upbeat appraisal was not consistent with intelligence assessments provided his committee over the past year.

"In fact, I have seen nothing, including classified intelligence reporting, that would lead me to this conclusion," Rockefeller said in a scathing letter to the Central Intelligence Agency director.

Is there a dumber guy than Jay Rockefeller in the Senate? He is the moron who makes an oxymoron of "Senate Intelligence" Committee.

4 posted on 05/30/2008 7:18:55 PM PDT by Roy Tucker ("You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality."--Ayn Rand)
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To: mdittmar
"In fact, I have seen nothing, including classified intelligence reporting, that would lead me to this conclusion," Rockefeller said in a scathing letter to the Central Intelligence Agency director.

Wow, the weasel traitor Rocky is terribly anxious to disparage progress in the WOT. Couldn't be from any partisan motives, eh?
5 posted on 05/30/2008 7:18:57 PM PDT by Enchante (Barack Chamberlain: My 1930s Appeasement Policy Goes Well With My 1960s Socialist Policies!)
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To: BOBTHENAILER

Ole Jay likes to use his Intelligence Reports according to his agenda..at the moment.
He is not real worried about treason, otherwise he would have been prosecuted year ago.
Teddy’s out, Ole jay is feelin’ his oats again.


6 posted on 05/30/2008 7:21:27 PM PDT by acapesket
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To: mdittmar

yesterday the chicom news agency xinhua

had a more upbeat analysis of iraq than

our media!

what’s that tell you?


7 posted on 05/30/2008 7:24:10 PM PDT by ken21 ( people die + you never hear from them again.)
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To: Roy Tucker

“Senate Intelligence Committee”—the ULTIMATE oxymoron!


8 posted on 05/30/2008 7:26:13 PM PDT by GWMcClintock
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To: mdittmar

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-05/30/content_8280157.htm


9 posted on 05/30/2008 7:26:18 PM PDT by ken21 ( people die + you never hear from them again.)
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To: mdittmar
Bookmarking for the next Freeper who slams the Administration and the President for not fighting back during the Iraq war.

THIS crap from the MSM/DNC is why, everytime the Pres or his people say ANYTHING they are called liars.

10 posted on 05/30/2008 7:28:15 PM PDT by roses of sharon ( (Who will be McCain's maverick?))
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To: GWMcClintock

For sure. I am scratching my head and trying to figure out what state can possibly compete with West Virginia for the worst pair of Senators: Kleegle Byrd and Buy the State Rockefeller. Do any other states come to mind? I guess Massachusetts with their two fraudsters, but West Virginians as a whole seem pretty normal.


11 posted on 05/30/2008 7:30:54 PM PDT by Roy Tucker ("You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality."--Ayn Rand)
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To: acapesket
The worst thing that can happen to Jay, his fellow rats, and the left wing media, and their minions in the Univesity chairs is for Iraqi military to take out al qaeda.

But the damage is done as the sheeple have been conditioned to we shouldn't be there,after their daily dosage of propaganda.

12 posted on 05/30/2008 7:40:39 PM PDT by oldtimer
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To: mdittmar

As usual, good news for America is bad news for the dims.


13 posted on 05/30/2008 7:44:46 PM PDT by prov1813man (While the one you despise and ridicule works to protect you, those you embrace work to destroy you)
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To: ken21

I’m going to get eggs and tomatoes for this but here goes: Remember the assessment a month or so ago from the same CIA that we no longer have to worry about Iran’s centrifuge development? A slap in the face to Israel. Now in this election year the same folks from Langley are again telling us al-qaeda is no longer a threat. I’m sorry I’m not buying. As far as I’m concerned since James J Angleton ran that show it has become an entrenched nest of vipers which have grown to include globalists and internationalists and leftwingers of every stripe. The attempt to reform this wayward agency most recently by the Bush administration through the short-lived and failed efforts of Porter Goss, an ex-agent himself, speaks volumes to the real danger we have in our midst, i.e., entrenched hence invisible enemies of state purportedly acting in our best interests at the CIA who are impervious to removal.


14 posted on 05/30/2008 7:45:53 PM PDT by 4Runner
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To: ken21
"If I were asked to use one word to describe the situation in Iraq today, I would choose the word 'hope'."

Let's hear it for...... "THE AUDACITY OF HOPE!!"
15 posted on 05/30/2008 7:49:10 PM PDT by Enchante (Barack Chamberlain: My 1930s Appeasement Policy Goes Well With My 1960s Socialist Policies!)
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To: mdittmar; aculeus; Billthedrill; AnAmericanMother
Down memory lane with that colossal nitwit,

“McCain was a fighter pilot, who dropped laser-guided missiles from 35,000 feet. He was long gone when they hit. What happened when they [the missiles] get to the ground? He doesn’t know. You have to care about the lives of people. McCain never gets into those issues.”

16 posted on 05/30/2008 7:51:08 PM PDT by dighton
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To: acapesket
Ole jay is feelin’ his oats again.

Ole Jay and his family got bitch slapped in their attempt to sway Exxon stockholders to Green the company. He needs to get slapped again and again in this forum.

17 posted on 05/30/2008 7:54:33 PM PDT by BOBTHENAILER (One by one, in small groups or in whole armies, we don't care how we do it, but we're gonna getcha)
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To: Roy Tucker

I’ll put Lautenberg and Menendez up there with any of them.

In fact New Jersey has had terrible representation in Washington for years. We have tax and spenders who have been horrible in bringing the bacon home. Let’s face it, if your representatives in DC are gonna vote yes to every spending bill, you would think they might manage to have soem of the funds spent here. I haven’t checked the figures lately (and am too tired to look it up now) but NJ has had a ridiculous ratio of dollars sent to washington vs dollars brought back. At least Byrd is an expert in benefiting his constituents.


18 posted on 05/30/2008 8:09:47 PM PDT by free_for_now (No Dick Dale in the R&R HOF? - for shame!)
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"In fact, I have seen nothing, including classified intelligence reporting, that would lead me to this conclusion," Rockefeller said in a scathing letter to the Central Intelligence Agency director.

Well you've seen it now you panty-waist and from the head spook himself.

19 posted on 05/30/2008 8:57:53 PM PDT by HawaiianGecko
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To: Roy Tucker
Is there a dumber guy than Jay Rockefeller in the Senate?

...Dingy Harry, for starters. Both the WA senators on the distaff side...

20 posted on 05/30/2008 9:15:51 PM PDT by castlebrew (Gun control means hitting where you intended to!)
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