Posted on 05/28/2008 5:10:23 PM PDT by Kaslin
Energy: Analysts have found that investors spooked by the peak oil theory — the belief that crude production has topped out and is in decline — are partly behind the soaring oil prices. Someone should set them straight.
But the impact of those nations on crude prices in recent months is suspect. Global oil consumption grew 2% in the first quarter of this year over the first quarter of 2007, while production increased 2.5% over the same period. On a daily basis, roughly 85 million barrels of oil are consumed across the world, almost exactly matching the amount produced each day.
Production over the next two quarters is projected to continue rising (3.3% and 4.1%, according to estimates from Citigroup), while demand is expected to grow at a slower 1.6% pace over the next six months.
These data don't indicate higher prices, so something else is at work. Some analysts believe that investors who have swallowed the peak oil theory are pricing oil higher because they fear the world is running out of crude and permanent shortages are nigh. They shouldn't believe it.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
People are going to have to pay to get rid of the stuff someday.
US oil production has dropped 40% and consumption has doubled.
Congress decided to put a moratorium on new drilling on public land and developing oil shale. Congress has gotten in bed with Eco Freaks to get money and make Bush look bad at the same time and are about to wreck the country.
On the other hand, we’ll be the last ones with the stuff.
Wow! What a coincidence!
</sarc>
You would have to throw a turd in the punch bowl by stating the facts.
The fact that these investors are making huge profits from their manipulation of that alledged fear of shortage somehow always gets ignored.
How much oil in the ground is a closely guarded secret. Oil companies only tell part of the story, IMHO.
Burn, baby, burn.
“Blame part of $135-a-barrel oil on the increased demand in China and India, where the populations and economies are growing rapidly.”
How is chinas population growing rapidly when they’ve only been allowed to have one child per couple??? include the fact that everyone chose to have male babies shouldn’t their population be shrinking and fast!?
No CEO in his right mind would overstate reserves, because of the probablility of being prosecuted under Sarbanes Oxley.
Population keeps growing, because death rate are decreasing, and people live longer. Their economic growth has been much higher than population growth.
I'm not a big peak oil believer; we're not running out of oil. But we are now running low on the cheap stuff. We're now using advanced drilling and prospecting methods, we're drilling in deep oceans and in difficult locations. And we're now starting an inevitable transition from liquid ("conventional") petroleum to stuff like tar sands. (That's good news, ultimately, because we have vast amounts of oil shale and tar sands in North America.)
In the 1990’s it was tech stocks; that crashed. Then they moved to real estate; that crashed. Now they’re investing/speculating in oil and gold. I wonder what the next boom and bust will be.
bump
And there you have it. All the rest of the facts are window dressing.
[People are going to have to pay to get rid of the stuff someday.]
Its got all the earmarks of a classic bubble, doesn’t it. Irrational exuberance driven by Green fear. And some point, supply and demand curves have to adjust. Just wish I knew how to short the top effectively.
True. The demand for oil in China is all about everyone wanting to get a car to replace that bicycle or scooter.
Even with people living longer, the one child policy has dropped China’s total fertility rate to 1.6, well below replacement levels. The Population Research Bureau is even projecting that China’s total population will actually begin to shrink between 2025 and 2050 by nearly 40 million. Obviously, trends can change but the one child policy has really become entrenched within China and the bureaucracy. Thus, making such a change may require a radical change in China.
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