It will be with great joy that I wake up to a filibuster proof democrat majority in the senate, a steamroller democrat majority in the house, and Barak Hussein Obama as president.
Posted on 05/23/2008 7:40:15 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.
Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com, follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.
Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.
And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’s legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.
Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.
So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.
Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.
Mon dieu!
In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.
Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.
So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.
Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.
In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.
This is not a good year to be a Republican.
This story is not an overstatement by any means.
I see a 57 seat Senate for the dems and maybe more than that.
If we lose the filibuster in the Senate, we are screwed. Almost as bad as if McCain wins and pushes through his amnesty for illegals and other nonsense.
Kiss my ass.. in French.. Mon Deiu!
it’s not over until
the fat lady in a pantsuit fires her gun.
Dick Morris is just what he claims to be......
A Dick.
McCain just picked a guy to head his VP search who has donated in the past to McCain, Richard Lugar and Arlen Specter. We’re SCREWED from the top of the ticket on down.
was worried until I noticed the Dick Morris byline. He gets everything backwards.
Given the trend of current events, I have started making arrangements for my minor children to have the ability, schooling, and wherewithall to leave America itself.
I consider it a sort of “hedge.”
And that is nothing that I have ever even dreamed of in my entire life.
Thank you for your post - bill
It could be a good year to be a Republican. Jim Gilmore should be able to clean the clock of Warner who raised taxes and supports extremely liberal views. He also helped fund the effort to block the Virginia marriage ammendment.
http://hamptonroads.com/node/168941
Come on and help support a true conservative Jim Gilmore.
http://www.jimgilmoreforsenate.com/index.php
It will be our ability to deliver the Senate to the GOP that will determine how well we get our way on judges and other issues with McCain provided he wins.
We really don’t want a McCain presidency with both houses controled by Democrats. Get out the word. Mark Warner and most of the Democrats running are liberals. There are a lot of conservatives running nationwide. Quit griping about McCain and help conservatives win the day to keep McCain honest.
I think the toe-sucker has this one right.
One more thing, Isn’t it time for the bridge to nowhere Ted Stevens to retire in embarrassment? Just put up a conservative in Alaska and they will win. Why run the earmark retread? Isn’t Robert Byrd enough of a pork king without one of our own vying for the crown?
Dick meant to say: GOP Senate, House and Presidential Massacre of '08.
Unfortunately Dick might be right this time.
In other words, the GOP has time to make the changes they feel need to be made: they will undoubtedly see these numbers and conclude that their ties to conservatism are killing them.
They'll say, "It's obvious we need to be more like McCain if we want to succeed."
Which will only make the fall much worst then it looks now. Bye, bye freedom- hello socialism!!!
Is DC statehood a matter of passing a law or does that have to go to a Constitutional Amendment??
“I want the American electorate to be given exactly what they want good and hard for 2 to 4 years”
Careful what you wish for. If the Dems get that kind of power the Republic may be forever changed.
There may be no Conservative tide to return the adults to power.
So their behavior has nothing to do with it? Gee. How unlucky. </sarcasm>
My bet is when oil hits $500.00 per barrel and gasoline is $25.00 per gallon “the people” will be burning hippies to keep their homes warm and “drilling” every environmentalist in sight to find oil. Once the tide turns the politicians will follow the lead of the people ( that’s where the votes are ) and oil rigs will be sprouting like dandelions on a spring day.
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