Posted on 05/21/2008 8:45:36 PM PDT by Red Steel
While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.
Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com, follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.
Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.
And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’s legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.
Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.
So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.
Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.
Mon dieu!
In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.
Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.
So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.
Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.
In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.
This is not a good year to be a Republican.
I share your concerns. That’s the reason I wrote the posts.
wait a minute. Some of these folks lead by 7-12 points, and they’re “hanging on by the skin of their teeth.” Granted it’s going to be a tough year, but I think there’s a bit of hyperbole going on here.
This one issue alone should propel Republicans to a landslide.
This is a reason why Republicans will win. Democrats are responsible for these sky-high oil prices.
What can you say? I’m 57. This country will withstand anything, but look how long we’ve suffered from the aftermath of Carter and Clinton. I don’t know if I can wait until 2012 for this to turn around...Thinking about all this makes me depressed....I think I’m going to go shoot myself...
Either one will be a disaster for America.
Unfortunately, McCain is not much better.
The one saving grace in this article is that it’s written by Dick “Nearly Always Wrong” Morris.
People aren’t paying attention yet.
When obama gets on the national podium, flutters his Marxist ears, and promises to destroy American families, the American military and the American economy, I expect a sea-shift in opinion against the rat party.
>> We should be thankful that there is still time to turn this around
Yeah, but they’d better hurry!
Maybe they can quickly gin up and pass another bloated corporate welfare farm bill! Slapping their overstrapped constituents in the teeth for the benefit of slackers and wealthy farmers ought to be good for a few votes, don’t you think?
No, with the R’s “It’s All About Money” — I pass bills for you, you give me money, I keep my seat. Representing those who voted for them? Nah, that’s old school. Having principles, and standing by them? Archaic. Standing up for what you believe? Can’t help you there, if I rock the boat my campaign fund will suffer!
The country our forefathers worked so hard to build could do worse than to have EVERY SINGLE mother’s child in Congress come down with a terminal disease tomorrow. A couple dozen good men and women don’t deserve that, but the HUNDREDS of the rest of those barnacle-encrusted nest-featherers DO. Sorry for the mean spirit, but that’s my opinion. Congress — the lot of them — exude the unmistakeable stench of “soft” corruption, THROUGHOUT. Cleaning the cesspool before it becomes HARD ENTRENCHED corruption (can you say “carbon credits?”) would be a good thing for the country.
Remember, Dick Morris works for the family - - specifically, Obama’s 1st cousin, Kenyan strongman, Raila Odinga.
Right. Getting old and suffer from CRS Syndrome.
It doesn’t even have to be sixty Dem votes. Add what the Dems get to the liberal Republicans and we’re looking at a filibuster-proof majority for all manner of liberal mischief.
Can they? Yes. Will they? No. The public blames the President and his party for the economy, and I’m sure the MSM will be only too willing to assist them in that conclusion.
I knew I would find this reply about Morris. My sentiments exactly!
It certainly is discouraging looking right now. If I had my way, I would rather retake Congress and have McCain lose. I don’t think Obama could do much damage with a strong Republican congress and I’m afraid that a Democrat congress could do a lot of damage with McCain signing almost everything they do. But it looks like I may get the opposite of what I want. Well, we’ll just have to hope and pray that McCain does a better job than I fear he will. He’s not a consistent person so who knows, maybe he’ll turn right once he’s in office.
I fear you are right.
Yup, I do believe you are right. Before primary season started, he declared that was the only scenario in which the GOP had a chance.
He even wrote a book called something like Condi vs. Hillary didnt he?
Well, let's see. Dick all but guaranteed Rudy Giuliani would be the Republican nominee for President. He wrote a book indicating only Condelezza Rice could stop Hillary from becoming President. Not too great a track record.
And, so bad that the House might be Republican again by 2010.
Rasmusson was right when he predicted the GOP Congressional losses 2 years ago. Let's face it, Republicans stand for very little today and are in many instances indistinguishable from the Dems.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.