Posted on 05/21/2008 8:45:36 PM PDT by Red Steel
While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.
Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com, follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.
Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.
And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’s legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.
Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.
So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.
Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.
Mon dieu!
In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.
Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.
So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.
Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.
In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.
This is not a good year to be a Republican.
What icebergs?
[snicker. They didn’t seem them in 06. And they still don’t see them in 08.]
DU wisdom
Just wanted to say farewell to friends here...
Edited on Tue May-20-08 05:16 PM by theHandpuppet Sadly, after six years of fighting the good fight here at Democratic Underground, I have finally come to the conclusion that what was once a haven for Democratic voices has morphed by such an ugly, unrecognizable degree that I simply must take my leave. Fora that have admittedly had their share of heated debates and differences over the years have now been taken over by mob rule. The atmosphere has become poisonous and rather than willingly subject myself to the abuses of the new DU, it's really best that I go. I can no longer tolerate the class warfare, homophobia and sexism that actually seems to be on the rise. What progress is that, I ask myself. I'm simply watching this place implode. I gave it one last try today, tried to reach out to more reasoned voices, but after yet another wave of insults against Appalachians by the same old attack mob I've decided this has become akin to an abusive relationship. Time to go. I am going to make some copies from my DU journal this evening and shut the door on this particular chapter of my online activism.
Thanks to those holdouts here who have also fought the good fight. Without you I wouldn't have been able to continue for as long as I have. You are, perhaps, braver and stronger souls than me. You have my sincere admiration and my heartfelt gratitude. I'll miss your voices. Know that I will be there with you in spirit. You are great Dems, great folks, and I've been proud to know you.
-- Kate, aka theHandpuppet
They had the perfect chance today to support Bush’s veto of the Farm bill! But No.. the little media driven Lemmings jumped right on.
Thank God the Dims are so Dumb, they forgot to send 34 pages of the bill to the President prior to the Veto.
Some think it was deliberate, if it was, I am dumbfounded.
I didn’t read the article. I just want to know, who the hell listens to the toe-sucker, anyway?
This article resembles one of your postings. Unfortunately, it’s a fairly accurate at the look of things at the moment.
When has Bush ever used the bullypulpit to counter the MSM? If Reagan was the Great Communicator, Bush is the opposite.
Captain Edward J. Smith, RMS Titanic, maternal grandfather of Michael Duncan, current Chair Republican National Committee.
We could stand a WH house loss if we could maintain a veto potential in the Senate.
Obama might be so bad if he won that he’d be a one term president.
I know that Dick Morris isn’t a giant of credibility, but there’s quite a bit of data backing him on this story. We should be thankful that there is still time to turn this around, but that time is running short.
I sound like Dick Morris ? I better call Kevorkian, it’s time for me to be euthanized.
They have spent the last eight years spending insanely, letting the press lie about Iraq, ignoring energy and housing problems mushrooming out of control, and generally acting like there is too big a party going on to worry about showing up to work in the morning.
Seven and a half years ago I stayed up into the wee hours of the morning anxious about who our next president would be. This election, I would really just like to retreat into the hills and emerge in about 20 years just to see how bad it got.
I have zero faith in any of our political leadership. McCain is a joke. For the last ten years all he has done is dance to the music the New York Times is playing. He isn't a leader, he is the worst sort of follower: Always trying to say what he things the wrong people want to hear, always trying to do what looks right rather than what is right.
I have no clue. But I will say he's right about this. The GOP sees the polls, and their first thought is, "jeez!!! those conservatives are killing us! we need to get as far away from the right as possible if we want to survive."
That thinking is a recipe for disaster!!! And they are going to get slaughtered, just as Dick says.
Dick Morris said Hillary would be our next president.
Why is this guy still quoted?
You mean filibuster, not veto.
They followed the Bill Ford style of leadership. When the Detroit Lions had their disaster years, Matt Millen had a 5 year extension instead of a firing. In 06 when we had our Detroit Lions style of ass kicking, the GOP Congress elected the same leadership. Great job guys. I saw this for two years, and I'm not a genius like these fools are supposed to be. :(
Anything is possible there. We will have every form of deviant and extreme behavior on display.
Despite all the Drive By's efforts to hide it, it will be all over the place.
This might not be a good year to be a Republican, but this is the first time I can remember Republicans (or conservatives) like Rush, Karl Rove, Sean Hannity doing everything possible to talk the Democrats into choosing their stronger candidate.
Laura Ingraham ripped him a new one on O’Reilly tonight.
She was awesome.
He did not enjoy having his Idiotic pontificating questioned.. at all.
Can't agree with you on that one. Laura was trying to argue that Hillary is pretty much a pure centrist and Obama is pretty much a pure leftist. Morris began by joking that Laura sounded like she was stumping for Hillary. He then went on and listed examples to show that Hillary is to the left of Obama on several crucial issues (he listed three of them, as I recall). As the segment ended, Laura thanked him for the history lesson. She might've been trying to sound a bit sarcastic, but it struck me that he was right and she was wrong, and so thanking him for correcting her was the appropriate thing to do.
To Morris's credit, he quite openly opposes Hillary every time he appears on Fox News.
Probably not the 20+ GOP senators who, along with the GOP President, crossed the aisle to vote with the traitors to pass the shamefull amnesty bill.
Why is anybody surprised that the GOP is going to lose big????
They DESERVE to lose big. Only thing that will get their attention.
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