This is where the shills come in, to sell the notion that a collapsing national currency is just swell for a nation's economy.
Posted on 05/19/2008 7:11:49 PM PDT by Kaslin
Disraeli once said there are lies, damned lies and statistics. After watching recent news coverage and evaluating the isolated statistics that are often cited, one might think the U.S. economy is desperately stranded in the midst of a dire recession.
Before diving into an analysis of our economic status, let's talk about the basic elements in a viable economy. My contention is you would still have a healthy economy if all economic factors are bad except the following:
1. People are employed; jobs are available.
2. People have healthy levels of income. Healthy income includes additional discretionary income that they can spend after paying bills.
3. Inflation should be low. The value of the currency that people hold today should be worth roughly the same as it was one to five years ago. Hard-earned dollars should not be depreciating substantially over time.
4. People are able to buy things on credit, and at reasonable rates of interest.
5. Real GDP should be growing, as evidenced by the level of sales rising, with the value of goods and services sold and traded also going up.
In sum, if you are employed, can pay your bills, can borrow cheaply, can hold the value of what you own and do this while living in an economic climate that is positive and growing, other outstanding economic conditions speak much less loudly than what recent media coverage has conveyed.
A reasonable perspective on the U.S. economy today includes:
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
This is where the shills come in, to sell the notion that a collapsing national currency is just swell for a nation's economy.
Im thinking this was written by Brian Williams of NBC but I couldn’t see any pigs flying around....! Get to the link and see the author is acually Brian Hamilton.
You call that a collapse, huh? Here, have a tissue.
Hey, help me out. What’s the percentage drop since April of ‘06 in that graph? Should I sell the farm, or should I wait until the dollar drops below its 1990 level?
Brian Williams ?
yikes...I should have read all the posts.
I notice you like IBD. :^)
“”Hey, help me out. What’s the percentage drop since April of ‘06 in that graph? Should I sell the farm, or should I wait until the dollar drops below its 1990 level?””
What do you think the future holds? Investments are made on future prospects next year looks grim to me
Goverment 100% socialist controlled
3 more Ginsburg type supreme court justices?
Rangel’s trillion dollar tax increase?
Democrat National health Care?
A fix for social security?
Global warming tax?
Millions of illegals pouring over the open border?
Driving a windmill powered car to work?
And the children let’s not forget the children
Your call
There's got to be a limit somewhere to the number of dollars that the rest of the world is willing to hold in exchange for their goods and services. Inflating away the value of past dollars exchanged is one way to prolong the spending spree. The rising prices of foreign goods measured in dollars will also work to slow the increase in the trade deficit.
The inflation of our currency is not only a cause of problems, it is a symptom of problems. The prime cause is spending more than one can afford, where "one" includes the federal government. The bailing out of financial institutions threatened by housing price declines is one way in which the government has been spending money.
If you think inflation is bad, you need to try a decade or two of deflation. Deflation of housing prices has already caused considerable pain. If the deflation spreads to other commodities there could be some very serious problems. Imagine if all economic activity slowed as much as housing sales have slowed.
All of it is true. We should taste the barrels of our guns right away.
Another opportunity to see if one can get steak and milk from the same cow. I wonder if they will go after gold again? How would you like to surrender all your gold at $400 per ounce when the world price is at $900?
And don’tcha love the “GDP” crowd, who like to tout the rise in GDP, despite the fact that buying a cheap plastic trinket from China and shipping it into a US port, transporting it by truck, and marking it up at a Wal-Mart (and requiring the consumer to buy several to last several years) is a nice big bump in GDP....versus the low-GDP method of us actually making quality items here and selling them domestically and overseas...?
3. Inflation should be low. The value of the currency that people hold today should be worth roughly the same as it was one to five years ago. Hard-earned dollars should not be depreciating substantially over time.
4. People are able to buy things on credit
Ok, so first, if people have plenty of disposible income (point 2) how come point 4 matters. If people have plenty of disposable income first, they don't need credit, and second, we wouldn't be having a banking problem
Now a couple of other points: 1. Inflation is running pretty high at this point. Since the government's seasonally adjust inflation rates showed a DROP in gasoline prices for April, I think we can pretty much abandon any reliance on those numbers. Here are some other numbers, and the reader can decided which to believe:
One should realize that the founder of IBD William O'Neil is the momentum investing prematout to beat all permatouts. He was the Yin of Greenspan's Yang in the DOTCOM bubble.
And then there is this little problem, and if you realize how much of a spending engine california home equity is you will see the real problem:
bump
The Euro started at $1.20 and at one point dropped to about $0.83. About a 30% drop. They survived, we're doomed. Go figure.
You call that a collapse, huh? Here, have a tissue.
It’s not a great sign for the economy when the market’s best performers are inflation stocks and its worst performers are financials and retailers. I am in a cautious/defensive stance investment wise these days I think we are just passing through the eye of this hurricane
If people want to discuss long-term trends, fine. Don't show me a graph that starts in April.
But how can that be? Stuff gets shipped here and there, and then there and here, and the end result must be negative!
Oh, yeah. 19% is a collapse. Better get ready to sell pencils on a street corner.
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