2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, May 19, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks for the chart!

I appreciate your efforts!

[Political Junkie Too]

You're welcome. I was interested in the probability of winning, which isn't evident from the basic state trend predictions. You have to run the simulations to get that number.

I also saw the other "prediction" thread that takes 50-day polling data. It's interesting that that set of data has the candidates running even.

Here is the corrected chart.

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	238.92	18.38%
14-Jan	233.01	13.58%
21-Jan	232.51	13.29%
28-Jan	234.30	14.29%
4-Feb	233.98	13.61%
11-Feb	235.06	14.66%
18-Feb	228.21	11.99%
25-Feb	231.36	13.89%
3-Mar	232.14	13.87%
10-Mar	237.81	20.44%
17-Mar	242.21	22.51%
24-Mar	247.55	26.65%
31-Mar	250.09	29.46%
7-Apr	246.92	26.31%
14-Apr	247.11	25.87%
21-Apr	245.73	23.92%
28-Apr	249.77	26.54%
5-May	248.71	25.72%
12-May	250.18	27.43%
19-May	246.66	23.60%

-PJ