Posted on 05/17/2008 4:31:23 AM PDT by expat_panama
You claimed this is not an National crisis, and it is. It si a national crisis so much so that Congress and the President are working on bailouts. The Fed had to collatoralize worthless debt for the first time. The Fed had to take action they haven’t taken since the great depression. The government had to send back tax rebates in an effort to stimulate the economy due to the National Housing Crisis.
I don’t really care what happens in one isolated part of one city. Until a month ago, all of the people living in Seattle thought house prices only go up. Now they are beginning to join the National Housing Crisis.
To believe there is no National Housing Crisis, you have to be delusional, in denial or just dumb. I don’t know which is your case. To think this is just a “normal” housing downturn, when the Fed is taking action not taking since the great depression and when financial institutions that have been around since the great depression collapse (Bear Stearns), you have to be delusional, in denial or just dumb.
Why can’t you admit the national housing crisis we are in. It is not as if you are responsible for it.
“Bitching and moaning” is a complete mis-characterization. I haven’t complained about a single thing about housing, merely noted it. In fact, I am flat gleeful that I didn’t take your earlier advice last year that it was the best time to buy, bargains galore, bottom is in, yada, yada, yada...
“Expressing frustration while trying to educate the ignorant” would be a more apt description of my activity.
I’m not asking you to participate in the pity party toward all of the people who lost their homes or are deep in debt and struggling to get by. Most of them are responsible for their plight. I’m only asking you to take your head out of the sand and acknowledge that we have been through a National Housing Crisis and that it still has not completely run its course.
The bottom has to come soon as sales and prices can’t go down forever. But we are not their yet, much as you want to believe it.
The fact that the President and Congress are devising a 'solution' in the form of a 'bailout' proves that they're subject to pressure from the media. We're not in a situation anywhere near like the Great Depression. We are at almost full employment, and the vast majority of homeowners haven't had any difficulty paying their mortgages. Some banks and investment houses make stupid choices in their investments, and the media went ballistic. Did the American Economy collapse? No, it didn't.
I'm not saying there was not pain on the part of many, and some folks did bring it on themselves, but I don't delight in anyone's suffering. But there are always going to be people who make bad economic choices; sometimes, even large corporations. There will always be business cycles, both up and down; some folks will benefit, and some won't.
Sell all you own and move to a cave! Its Bad!!!
Wait until the high gas prices REALLY start filtering down. You will then see RE stagnate. Many business have been holding off increasing their prices in order not to loose customers. They can only do that for so long.
My Waste Managment bill just came in yesterday. Went up $11.85. Bill went from 56.85 to 68.70. In the past it stayed the same or went up maybe 20-30 cents couple times per year.
As far as I know, neither of these homes have lowered there prices either.
To be fair though, I am also in an area that did not see a huge "bubble" or increase in home prices. They have stayed pretty stable.
Expect the phrase 'higher than forecast' to permeate the news media 'til November, at which time it will no longer be seen!
Land values are skyrocketing in many agriculture states...homes often rest upon ‘land’ (sic), ergo, home prices are increasing in many of those states! Real Estate remains a ‘locality’ market, not a national market. For instance, the S&P home price index represents ONLY metro markets (ie, not ‘national’).
Clearly...’credit’ needed ‘tightening’, so we won’t be seeing ‘liar loans’ and ‘no docs’ any time soon!
Good move, congratulations, that’s why I asked...as you may have guessed, I’m in the ‘lost a few percent’ category. Been there before, will be there again. And obviously, not yet willing to concede ‘the recession’ or ‘the bear’, tho’. G’luck.
No argument there, Thanks for elaborating. Yep, I'm in total agreement you have to split the argument between New Homes, and Existing Homes. And like others, I'm only focusing on markets I'm familiar with (ie, very few), not national. For instance the dichotomy between Tampa RE market and Naples RE Market (Florida) is symptomatic of the nation, I'm sure...ie runs the gammut from worst to best.
As to the timing of existing homes bottoming...I agree that's an unknown. Just put me in the camp of believing a long sideways market is as possible as a continuing steep down market.
New Home “bargains are thinning rapidly”, not existing home bargains....tho' the barnburners are thinning there as well. We're both in volatile markets...Cal/Fla...so the forecasts in both run the gammut. Location, location, location. I bought purely based on school choice (nothing else) in 1982. And like you say, RE didn't take off 'til after '92 (I don't think it quite took 5 years here, tho' after the '90 recession).
I agree you've got some time in Calif. G'luck in your house hunting.
I'm thinking there may be a truism in there somewhere...
Thanks.
Thanks, you bring up good points that are reasonable and true.
(as if to put a period on the sentence), in all likelihood posted elsewhere, the April sales of New Homes rose ‘UNEXPECTEDLY’ (there’s that word again).
“Sales of new homes across the United States rose an unexpected 3.3 percent in April from the prior month, to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 526,000 homes,... “...and
“The median sales price of new houses sold in April rose 9.1 percent compared with March to 246,100 dollars, marking the highest median price level since November of last year.”
finally,
“The Commerce Department report also showed that the average sales price of a new home in April was 321,000 dollars, marking a 10 percent gain from a month earlier.
New home sales increased in most regions of the country last month.”
more at:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080527160651.9tkjwy2s&show_article=1
think we can close out this thread on good news...and hope that housing is getting its sea legs again and not just a ‘short summer rally’.
Hey Expat, your April New home starts were revised downward and May is even lower.
Today from Bloomberg:
Housing starts fell 3.3 percent to a 975,000 pace from a revised 1.008 million in April, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The reading was below economists’ forecasts and the lowest since March 1991. Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 1.3 percent to a 969,000 rate.
Here's the latest:
| For | Time | Title | Actual | Revised | Consensus | Briefing | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 08:30 | Building Permits | 969K | 978K | 960K | 960K | 982K |
| May | 08:30 | Housing Starts | 975K | 1032K | 980K | 1000K | 1008K |
Housing starts are at the low end of the long term range and have been holding steady for a few months now. Permits are better than expected and 4% over March's low. Home prices are way down and sellers have a lot of unsold inventory.
That's bad for sellers and wealth creation and good for buyers and inflation, but for the gloom'n'doom crowd it's bad for everyone. The next time oil prices plummet and big oil has a huge unsold inventory then they'll say that's bad for everyone too. Bloomberg's like that, they're the first choice of the depressed dems --great for bashing America in general and Bush in particular --not to mention electing His Royal Holiness Hussein Obama.
Not surprising that housing starts are down. Why should they start new ones, when they have a large inventory of unsold ones? Once that inventory starts down, and with the jump in new home sales, that will start to happen, then we’ll see housing starts go up again.
Right; I too am speechless beyond all words --but I still have something to say.
Good graph. People can believe whatever they want but hard numbers are great for cutting past the BS to find out what is.
Big dips in starts are serious because they came with recessions six times in the past half century.
At the same time, it's possible to have a dip without a recession and a recession without a dip. It's happened before and it can happen again..
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