Posted on 05/15/2008 6:38:09 PM PDT by B-Chan
A couple of ... readers got together for dinner this week -- both well-educated types -- and chatted about the world for a few hours and what's ahead when present trends are projected and barring some miraculous change for the better. Afterwards, an email:
Bottom line we got to, after all was said: OK, so we fortunate oddball ones have advance warning of a coming, indeed impending, broad scale societal collapse/restructuring - on multiple fronts - economic cycles, energy, K-wave, solar energy downturn (sunspot cycles). We can, and have, to the extent of our limited abilities, positioned ourselves individually to survive with our loved ones as best we can. Now what?How do we, a remnant a la Nok, help position the human race for long term optimal survival, knowing or suspecting what we do about the probable course of the near term future?
Some random thoughts, all based around the key survival strategy of: Localize production and distribution of food and material, and encourage same.
• Encourage bicycle shops to set up in our neighborhood(s), or set one up ourselves, either as an active or silent financial partner, if sufficiently capitalized. The Wright brothers had the right idea with their bicycle business - this tool remains one of the most amazingly effective ways of harnessing human energy ever invented. Their airplane idea? I think the jury is still out! (We sure have burned a lot of oil in the things over the last hundred years!)I have no idea what might work where - these are just wild guesses. But if we as a nation and a human population are to face potential societal breakdown, and forced localization, then best we, who have by virtue of our somewhat eclectic outlooks on life, should take a hand in trying to guide that change NOW, rather than later. But YOU are the info maven, not me. I welcome your thoughts, and encourage you to ask readers if they have other thoughts on this subject.• Begin a widespread push to highlight farming and agriculture in general as a genuine career choice - something that is not being done nowadays, except in select rural areas, and then with a distinctly "heavy metal farming" bent. Newspaper letters to editor, talks to schools, citizens groups, the works. I am thinking here the concept of reinvigorating "truck" farming - intensive farming serving mostly urban communities, but it could be any agricultural pursuit, including local food processing, which remains a critical and frequently under filled link in the local food production chain. (And thus means jobs which are not there for folks to fill...)
• Bring in Mennonite and Amish speakers to discuss low petroleum input farming.
• Speak to the local "unemployment office" and encourage them to work with the extension service to push ag careers and small business startups in steering unemployed into thinking about ag / production as business opportunities.
• Encourage local machine/blacksmith shops and efforts. Offer an annual prize competition for creative and/or practical work by a local smith and/or machine shop. Raffle/auction off the entries, with funds being split between charity, returned to community production efforts and covering costs of running the event, including prizes (which would be production tools, naturally).
• Encourage county government to set a tax code such that inventory on hand is not only favorably taxed, but even rewarded in our counties. In other words, instead of encouraging limited inventories (and thus JIT delivery dependence) with an inventory tax (and there are counties and local governments that have such), reward business owners who choose to build a deeper shelf of product inventory by not only lifting any punitive taxes, but even giving credit for inventory on hand! This will help the broader system ride out any global supply chain disturbances, or, at least smooth the glide path down. Tax credits should extend from retailers to wholesale distributors, to local manufacturers. Should also include favorable treatment of stock on hand required for production... i.e. pre and post manufacture inventory.
• Encourage changes to local zoning codes to allow mixed residential and commercial dense use - in other words, bring back neighborhoods that do not require automobiles to live in. There is much wisdom in the "New Urbanist" movements objectives and means.
• Eliminate any local taxation on greenhouses and/or high hoop houses - and by doing so, help encourage season extension agricultural production - critical for trying to feed a local population to a reasonable standard of living year round.
• Offer prizes and/or publicity for local chefs who not only use local produce and meats, but also help educate the public to a more seasonal outlook on foodstuffs. In other words, start mentally preparing the broader population base now for the inevitable return to seasonal eating. Asparagus comes in the spring, not early winter, from Peru! (Unless you are in Peru, of course...)
• There is the whole ham radio connection, as well. Will help to ensure broad scale communications...
I'm sorry I wasn't able to make that discussion - sounds like a good one...
I’m with the B-guy.
His warlord scenario was amusing.
That's not surprising, coming from a Balrog.
I’m with you with B-guy. I got a good chuckle out of it. BTW: OSCS(SW)(Ret), LHA 4, FFG 29, CG 58, CDS 8, DDG 68
Can sailor, eh? Good on yer.
How about a liberty chit, Chief?
I live in an area with a lot of Amish and Mennonites.
Mennonites drive and live with modern conveniences.
Amish hire English to drive them around.
Amish have many businesses and use off road diesel to run their machines.
Both shop at Walmart. Both buy their seeds at the same places the rest of us do. Both utilize mail order for many of their specialized items. Buggys use materials that must be extracted or processed from natural resources.
Both utilize our health care system. They don’t believe in any insurance, so they pay out of pocket. I know Amish in their 80s who have had open heart surgery. The ones with less money go to Mexico via train for surgery.
Horses cost a lot of money/labor to feed. If they don’t get seen by a vet, they get ill and die. They live a long time and at the end of their lives, they are useless for work. There are no legal slaughterhouses for horses, so people either let them die and bury them or shoot them and then bury them.
Bikes require parts that require machines that require natural resource extraction, transport and electricity. Good bikes are not cheap any longer. While they may be ok for cities and flat land and young healthy folks, they are useless in winter, in hilly areas or for the elderly, the infirm or for carrying more than a few items. In heavy rain, they are also unsafe.
Gasoline isn’t the only thing we get from petroleum. The substitutes are grown, which means crop land, which requires diesel and natural gas inputs for planting, cultivating, fertlizer, drying, storage and transport to consumers.
Green houses in the North require heat at both ends of the season and electric fans in the hotter periods. Hoop houses utilize plastic, which is either petroleum or derived from plants (see above).
No electricity means no water except for hand pumps which are only good for shallow water tables. This also means no flush toilets, no sewage treatment and even on farms, for the past decade the mandate has been for pump assisted septic tanks instead of gravity flow. Windmill pumps are machines that require parts that require machinists, tools and electricity. Blacksmiths need coke or coal or even charcoal. Charcoal takes a lot of time and a lot of hardwood to manufacture. Today, hobby blacksmiths use electric blowers. Foot operated trip hammers are mostly antiques, expensive, are not made by blacksmiths themselves and are rarely even available. We have one and its value has increased a lot in the 20 years since it was used.
IOW, a short, brutal life for everyone, no matter how prepared for survival. Cooperation is a fantasy, given that we all have just so much energy, so much time and so much goodwill. Small groups with a common ideology have the best chance at cooperation, but we are all just human. Everything must be paid for and if not with money, than with time, energy and skill. Who will have food and energy, even human energy, to trade with each other? How many people have the skills needed for this sort of life?
They are talking apocalypse. There were a boatload of ‘beyond thunderdome’ novels in the 50s and 60s. The question is will the transition be abrupt or insidiously slow until the tipping point.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.