ICBMs and Why India Doesn't Need Them

1. Is India developing an ICBM?
2. (if yes) The PSLV can/can't just be tipped with nukes and used as first strike weapon.
3. consequences of developing an ICBM.

Here's my take on it.

Do we need an ICBM?

We don't need an ICBM. Not even for 'prestige' or boy toys - if you will.
An ICBM does not serve any of our security needs - in fact can add to more expense if developed in the next decade, secretly.

Our security needs can be more than adequately met by IRBM Agni-3, albeit with a slightly increased range.

Unlike other countries, all our adversaries are our neighbours - fortunately or unfortunately. Why would need an ICBM for that?

Are we developing an ICBM?

I would say no - and I'm not part of the defence establishment, so its an educated guess. Here's why:

Our current/near-term primary goal is to build a nuclear triad - and we miss a land-based missile capable of hitting all of China (the Agni-3 when produced should be able to do that), we miss an SLBM, and we miss an SLCM/Land based cruise (medium/long range) missile. And we don't have a SSBN or SSN yet - some of them are ongoing projects sucking enough money from the defence budget, why divert money into an ICBM?

An ICBM development would also serve to create a hostile relationship with both Russia and USA, after all who would we want to target an ICBM with? Timbuctoo? So an ICBM we develop would antagonise both our major weapon supplier and the world's sole superpower/our major trade partner. What do we gain? A PSLV with attitude?

Like Moscow's missile defence, it may even lead to our cities being targeted by either/both of those countries - depending on whether we use our own or their tech. I know our politicians are stupid, but not THAT stupid.

Strategic reasons maybe?

Unless India ties up into a NATO-like stance against say, Russia, or against the USA - both about as possible as China letting use Dong Fengs - what would the strategic reason be, for fielding an ICBM - in the absence of a cold war?

An argument could be made that an ICBM could be built for the same reasons the Agni-1 was - speed and ease of usage. But that's patently ridiculous. The Agni-1 is a specific second-strike weapon against Pakistan, even though its range might extend to parts of China.

The Agni's are all solid-fueled, and hence can be fired within minutes. So "replacing" them with a solid-fueled behemoth missile for speed doesn't make sense - more so when reliability might be compromised. The TOPOL-M has made a case for making existing missiles very fast, indeed. Making similar improvements to the Agni is more than adequate.

I wonder if we will sell an anti-ICBM to the Pakistanis?

“we miss a land-based missile capable of hitting all of China”

That’s the key.

Women scientists involved in strategic weapons programme

PTI

New Delhi (PTI): As the world celebrates Mother's Day day, a little known fact has emerged that women scientists are propelling India's strategic weapons programme including long range missile.

According to official figures there were almost up to 200 women scientists involved in India's key weapon programmes like missiles, tanks, naval systems and even light combat aircrafts (LCAs).

And now Dr Tessy Thomas would be the first woman scientist in the country to become Project Director for developing upgraded versions of the 2,000 kilometre range nuclear capable surface to surface Agni-II missile.

Thomas is presently the Associate Project Director of the 3,000 kilometre range Agni-III missile project.

She refused to say on what version the Agni-III was planned.

"It is still a confidential project. It will be called Agni-III A (2)," that was all she said.

"I like my job. I feel I am contributing to my nation's security," Thomas told PTI.

The woman scientist is here to be honoured on Monday on Defence Research Development Organisation's (DRDO) technology day programme which would be presided over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

A B Tech from Thrissur Engineering College, Calicut, and M Tech from Pune, Thomas joined the DRDO after passing out from the college and said that there were 20 other women scientists working along with her in the Agni-III programme.

There are seven women scientists working on top key posts in this programme.

Thomas, an expert on all solid system propellant did the post analysis of the failure of the first Agni-III missile. She said there were some shortcoming in the test of the missile. But these have been overcome to have a smooth flawless test fly.

So dedicated is Thomas to her work and her job with the DRDO that she has named her son, who is currently doing engineering, 'Tejas'.

I am all for as many Rice burners that can be aimed at the scourge of the earth, China the monolith of War.

India tests ballistic missile capable of reaching China

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jczYbReIOoyEv6RTvj4ByWMFJT7A

BHUBANESWAR, India (AFP) — India successfully tested a nuclear-capable missile Wednesday that can hit targets deep inside China, joining the ranks of nations possessing intermediate-range missile capacity, the defence ministry said.

It marked the third test of the Agni-III missile -- India's longest-range ballistic missile -- and was staged "to establish the repeatability of the missile's performance," defence ministry spokesman Sitanshu Kar told AFP.

The missile was fired from a mobile launcher Wednesday morning at a testing site on Wheeler Island off the coast of the eastern state of Orissa.

Kar said the launch "propelled India into a select group of countries with intermediate-range ballistic missile capabilities and added yet another dimension to national deterrence."

The missile, which has a 3,000-kilometre (1,860-mile) range, can carry conventional or nuclear payloads of 1.5 tonnes, and puts China's major cities such as Shanghai within striking distance, defence analysts say.

The surface-to-surface projectile reached its designated target in 13 minutes and 20 seconds "travelling through a peak height of 350 kilometres with a velocity of more than 4,000 metres per second," said Kar.

The Agni-III -- Agni means fire in Sanskrit -- was first tested in 2006.

But that first trial of the 1.8 metre-diameter (six-foot) missile was a flop when it rose 12 kilometres before crashing into the Bay of Bengal.

The failure was blamed on a snag with its strapped-on solid fuel booster rocket. India successfully tested the missile in April 2007.

In Wednesday's test, 180 kilometres northeast of Orissa's state capital Bhubaneswar, "all the sub-systems of the missile functioned in a copybook manner, giving an outstanding integrated performance of the missile in terms of range and accuracy," Kar said.

The missile is one of a series developed as part of India's deterrence strategy against neighbouring China and Pakistan which also have nuclear weapons, analysts say.

India has shorter-range missiles that analysts say were developed to target long-time rival Pakistan with which it has fought three wars since independence from Britain in 1947.

The two neighbours who launched a slow-moving peace process in 2004 aimed at resolving outstanding disputes including over disputed Kashmir often stage tit-for-tat missile tests.

But the development of the Agni III is aimed at displaying that India's deterrent reach can stretch far beyond Pakistan, analysts say.

In the last few years, however, tensions between India and China, which fought a brief border war in 1962, have eased and there is now direct trade through the Himalayas.

The Agni-III is the country's first solid fuel missile that is compact enough for easy mobility.

India's indigenously developed missile arsenal also includes the short-range Prithvi ballistic missile and the medium-range Akash.

India has no choice but to do what it is doing. We have funded China into a military build-up frenzy. China’s neighbors have had to take a look at what is going on, and prepare for a confrontation.

We have conducted the worst trade/military blunder in human history with China. We have not only created a situation that will be almost impossible for us to deal with, but we have destabalized the entire world in the process.

This is one situation where I hope God is not all that merciful, when the dregs of society that fostered and supported this policy go before Him.