Posted on 05/09/2008 10:08:58 AM PDT by The_Republican
Elite opinion on the Democratic race has congealed around the idea that it is over. Clinton has no chance whatsoever to win the nomination now. There is a minority of analysts out there - maybe 5%, maybe even less - who see her path to the nomination as much narrower than it was four days ago, but who still see a path.
I'm with the minority on this one. I think she is nearly finished, but not quite yet.
As those who know me in personal life can attest, I am a contrarian. For better or worse, when I see everybody looking right, the first thought in my head is, "What's over there on the left?" So, the following might just be a product of my contrarian instincts, but I have to say that I just can't get to where most everybody is on this race.
Two things are holding me back: West Virginia and Kentucky.
The conventional wisdom has it that Clinton did herself major damage Tuesday night by getting blown out in North Carolina. I completely agree. This hurt her with the pledged delegate count. Much more important, I think, is that it hurt her with the popular vote count, which she must win to press an argument with the superdelegates.
However, it is possible that she could counter Tuesday's blowout with two big blowouts of her own in the next two weeks. This could undo most of the damage done by her big loss in North Carolina, and put her back on track.
West Virginia is 95% white, and one of the poorest states in the nation. Demographically, Pennsylvania's twelfth congressional district is a decent proxy of it. Clinton won Pennsylvania's twelfth by 46 points.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
There has to be something major coming on Obama, either Rezko testimony or a bombshell about a coke-fueled gay orgy in the back of the limo.
I don’t think any of that will pan out.
I think Obama is *relatively clean*. I base that on how he handles smears when they come at him; he dismisses it with a sincerity that shows his confidence in his position.
What may have to happen (and I secretly hope it does) is that Hillary may need to paint Obama as a closet-marxist on domestic policy...a stealth Trotsky-ite that will harm the American culture. She will, correspondingly, have to contrast her own socialist moorings (Alinsky).
That scenario would cause a pop-corn shortage world-wide!
He says how West Virginia and Kentucky hold him back from writing off Hillary. But the projections of delegates already assume that Hillary will win big victories in those states. Even after assuming Hillary wins big in those places, she’s still far behind in delegates.
Maybe it’s just that the news reports will say Hillary wins West Virginia, and gives a psychological boost because she will have won another state. But realisitically it won’t help her much.
I agree. I think Obama is a pure dedicated marxist with a fully developed hatred for whites and the USA and has no time for affairs or drugs.
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Quote from Barack Obama’s book, Dreams Of My Father:
“THE PERSON WHO MADE ME PROUDEST OF ALL, THOUGH, WAS MY [half brother], ROY..HE CONVERTED TO ISLAM”.
From ‘Dreams of my Father’, “IN INDONESIA, I SPEND TWO YEARS AT A MUSLIM SCHOOL” “..I STUDIED THE KORAN..”
From ‘Audacity of Hope: “LOLO (Obama’s step father) FOLLOWED ISLAM....”I LOOKED TO LOLO FOR GUIDANCE”.
From ‘The Audacity Of Hope, “I WILL STAND WITH THE MUSLIMS SHOULD THE POLITICAL WINDS OF WAR SHIFT IN AN UGLY DIRECTION..”
From The Audacity Of Hope, “WE ARE NO LONGER JUST A CHRISTIAN NATION, we are also a Jewish nation, a MUSLIM NATION, a Buddhist nation, a Hindu nation, and a nation of nonbelievers.”
HATRED OF WHITES:
From Dreams of My Father, “ I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASIVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER’S RACE”. Barack Hussein Obama
From ‘Dreams of my Father’, “The emotion between the races could never be pure, even love was tarnished by the desire to find in the other some element that was missing in ourselves. Whether we sought out our demons or salvation, the other race (WHITE) would always remain just that: menacing, alien, and apart.” Barack Hussein Obama
From Dreams Of My Father: “That hate hadn’t gone away,” he wrote, BLAMING “WHITE PEOPLE — some CRUEL, some IGNORANT, sometimes a single face, sometimes just a faceless image of a system claiming power over our lives.” Barack Hussein Obama
From ‘Dreams Of My Father’, “There were enough of us on campus to constitute a tribe, and when it came to hanging out many of us chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs,” he wrote. “It remained necessary to prove which side you were on,to show your LOYALTY TO THE BLACK MASSES, TO STRIKE OUT and name names” Barack Hussein Obama
THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS!!
A WHITE CANDIDATE WOULD HAVE BEEN CRUCIFIED FOR MAKING SUCH STATEMENTS!!!
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http://www.examiner.com/a-536474~_Trapped_between_two_worlds_.html?cid=dc-article-obama
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The Clintons love best to come from behind and the MSM strategy for them has always been to surge them forward from behind with the "comeback" mantra.
Any bad stumble on Obama's part and the delegates begin to change their minds.
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