Posted on 05/06/2008 1:07:42 PM PDT by The_Republican
The Republican loss in the special election for Louisiana's Sixth Congressional District last Saturday should be a sharp wake up call for Republicans: Either Congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November.
The facts are clear and compelling.
Saturday's loss was in a district that President Bush carried by 19 percentage points in 2004 and that the Republicans have held since 1975.
This defeat follows on the loss of Speaker Hastert's seat in Illinois. That seat had been held by a Republican for 76 years with the single exception of the 1974 Watergate election when the Democrats held it for one term. That same seat had been carried by President Bush 55-44% in 2004.
Two GOP Losses That Validate a National Pattern
These two special elections validate a national polling pattern that is bad news for Republicans. According to a New York Times/CBS Poll, Americans disapprove of the President's job performance by 63 to 28 (and he has been below 40% job approval since December 2006, the longest such period for any president in the history of polling).
A separate New York Times/CBS Poll shows that a full 81 percent of Americans believe the economy is on the wrong track.
The current generic ballot for Congress according to the NY Times/CBS poll is 50 to 32 in favor of the Democrats. That is an 18-point margin, reminiscent of the depths of the Watergate disaster.
Congressional Republicans Can't Take Comfort in McCain's Poll Numbers Senator McCain is currently running ahead of the Republican congressional ballot by about 16 percentage points. But there are two reasons that this extraordinary personal achievement should not comfort congressional Republicans.
First, McCain's lead is a sign of the gap between the McCain brand of independence and the GOP brand. No regular Republican would be tying or slightly beating the Democratic candidates in this atmosphere. It is a sign of how much McCain is a non-traditional Republican that he is sustaining his personal popularity despite his party's collapse.
Second, there is a grave danger for the McCain campaign that if the generic ballot stays at only 32 % for the GOP it will ultimately outweigh McCain's personal appeal and drag his candidacy into defeat.
The Anti-Obama, Anti-Wright, and Anti-Clinton GOP Model Has Been Tested -- And It Failed The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.
This model has already been tested with disastrous results.
In 2006, there were six incumbent Republican Senators who had plenty of money, the advantage of incumbency, and traditionally successful consultants.
But the voters in all six states had adopted a simple position: "Not you." No matter what the GOP Senators attacked their opponents with, the voters shrugged off the attacks and returned to, "Not you."
The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, "Not the Republicans."
Republicans Have Lost the Advantage on Every Single-Issue Poll A February Washington Post poll shows that Republicans have lost the advantage to the Democrats on which party can handle an issue better -- on every single topic.
Americans now believe that Democrats can handle the deficit better (52 to 31), taxes better (48 to 40) and even terrorism better (44 to 37).
This is a catastrophic collapse of trust in Republicans built up over three generations on the deficit, two generations on taxes, and two generations on national security.
House Republicans Should Call an Emergency, Members-Only Conference Faced with these election results, the House Republicans should hold an emergency members-only meeting. At the meeting, they should pose this stark choice: Real change or certain defeat.
If a majority of the House Republicans vote for real change, they should instruct Republican Leader John Boehner and his team to come back with a new plan by the Wednesday before the Memorial Day recess. This plan should involve real change in legislative, communications, and campaign strategy and involve immediate, real action, including a complete overhaul of the Congressional Campaign Committee. The House Republican Conference would then vote for the plan or insist on its revision.
If a majority of the House Republicans are opposed to acting then the minority who are activists should establish a parallel organization dedicated to real change. This group should focus its energies on creating the changes necessary to survive despite a conference with a minority mindset that accepts defeat rather than fights for real change (which is what we had when I entered Congress in 1978).
Nine Acts of Real Change That Could Restore the GOP Brand Here are nine acts of real change that would begin to rebuild the American people's confidence that Republicans share their values, understand their worries, and are prepared to act instead of just talk. The Republicans in Congress could get a start on all nine this week if they had the will to do so.
Repeal the gas tax for the summer, and pay for the repeal by cutting domestic discretionary spending so that the transportation infrastructure trust fund would not be hurt. At a time when, according to The Hill newspaper, Senator Clinton is asking for $2.3billion in earmarks, it should be possible for Republicans to establish a "government spending versus your pocketbook" fight over cutting the gas tax that would resonate with most Americans. Lower taxes and less government spending should be a battle cry most taxpayers and all conservatives could rally behind.
Redirect the oil being put into the national petroleum reserve onto the open market. That oil would lower the price of gasoline an extra 5 to 6 cents per gallon, and its sale would lower the deficit.
Introduce a "more energy at lower cost with less environmental damage and greater national security bill" as a replacement for the Warner-Lieberman "tax and trade" bill which is coming to the floor of the Senate in the next few weeks (see my newsletter next week for an outline of a solid pro-economy, pro-national security, pro-environment energy bill). When the American people realize how much the current energy prices are actually a "politicians' energy crisis" they will demand real change in our policies.
Establish an earmark moratorium for one year and pledge to uphold the presidential veto of bills with earmarks through the end of 2009. The American people are fed up with politicians spending their money. They currently believe both parties are equally bad. This is a real opportunity to show the difference.
Overhaul the census and cut its budget radically. The recent announcement that the Census Bureau could not build an effective hand-held computer for $1.3 billion and is turning instead to 600,000 temporary workers to do a paper and pencil census in 2010 is an opportunity to slash its budget, shrink its bureaucracy, and turn to entrepreneurial internet-based companies to build an information-age census. This is an absurdity that cries out for bold, decisive reform (see my YouTube video "FedEx versus federal bureaucracy" for an example of what I mean).
Implement a space-based, GPS-style air traffic control system. The problems of the Federal Aviation Administration are symptoms of a union-dominated bureaucracy resisting change. If we implemented a space-based GPS-style air traffic system we would get 40% more air travel with one-half the bureaucrats. The union has stopped 200,000,000 passengers from enjoying more reliable air travel to protect 7,000 obsolete jobs. This real change would allow the millions of frustrated travelers to have champions in congress trying to help them get places better, safer, faster.
Declare English the official language of government. This real change is supported by 87% of the American people including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and Latinos. It is an issue of national unity that brings Americans together in a red, white, and blue majority.
Protect the workers' right to a secret ballot. The vast majority (around 81%) of Americans believe that American workers have a right to have a secret ballot election before they are forced to join a union. Last year the House Democrats passed a bill that would strip American workers of the secret ballot. A new bill should be introduced reaffirming that right, and it should be brought up again and again until marginal Democrats are forced to vote with the American people against the union power structure.
Remind Americans that judges matter. Senate Republicans should mount an ongoing fight (including a filibuster of other activities if necessary) to get the American people to realize that liberals want to block all current judicial appointments in order to maximize the number of left wing radical judges they can appoint if they win the White House. This issue has three advantages. It reminds people that judges matter and that a leftwing radical Supreme Court would be bad for the values of most (70 to 90 percent, depending on the issue) Americans. It shows the Democrats are not engaged in fair play. It arouses the activism of those who have been disappointed by Republicans and have forgotten how bad a liberal Democratic Presidency would be. What Is at Stake No Republicans should kid themselves. It's time to face up to a stark choice.
Without change we could face a catastrophic election this fall.
Without change the Republican Party in the House could revert to the permanent minority status it had from 1930 to 1994.
Without change, the majorities of Americans who support the Republican principle of smaller, more efficient, smarter and fairer government will be in for a rude awakening.
It's time for real change to avoid a real disaster.
The "May Day Massacre": Can Liberals Govern in a Global Economy? Despite the poor outlook for conservatives in our elections this November, there is encouraging news from across the Atlantic. The conservative wave sweeping Europe hit England last week when the liberal Labor Party suffered its worst local election results in 40 years.
Boris Johnson became the first Conservative Party member elected mayor of London when he defeated Labour candidate "Red" Ken Livingstone. In contests for more than 4,000 local seats across England, Conservatives captured 44 percent of the vote, compared to 25 percent for the Liberal Democrats and just 24 percent for Labour.
This Conservative victory in England comes on the heels of a history-making rout of the Communists and the Greens in parliamentary elections Italy two weeks ago. And the Italian results follow center-right victories in France (Sarkozy) and Germany (Merkel). The countries of so-called "old" Europe are turning away from the liberal high tax, big government policies that have crippled their economies and are turning toward pro-growth, pro-competitive center-right solutions.
All of which raises the question: Can the Left successfully govern in a modern, global economy? The voters of Europe seem to be saying no.
Your friend,
Newt Gingrich
Fox just had a blurb with Newt & Pelosi pushing Global Warmning.
Is he that hard up for some face time!!! Disgusting!
A snapshot in time, maybe -- not compelling, though. The Fall elections should carry a completely different, more compelling, dynamic. We will see whether there are coattails and whether the lefties can be tarnished with some of that Obamish anti-American acid.
Newt is trying way too hard to stay relevant, but his time has come and gone.
Lets give him a little credit... He did help a bit in bringing about a Republican revolution that lasted a dozen years, but don’t forget about that enormous amount of help he had from a newbie Democrat President Bill Clinton and his leftist wife Hillary Clinton.
Bubba ran as a middle of the road RAT and after taking office with a minority of the vote, he and his wife acted like they had a mandate... They didn’t, and their leftist power play resulted in creating the Republican revolution just as much as any catch phrase slogan that Newt developed.
Republicans should be as thankful to Bill and Hillary as they are to Newt for the Republican party’s goof fortune since 1994, and this year the gift keeps on giving.
The Republican will do fine in November and it will all be thanks to the Clinton’s.
The answer to the problem is NOT to go further Left Newt!
You have sold us out and lost all respect and credibility in what ever you say.
Couldn’t have said it better myself blam.
Good job.
Everywhere you go, all people want to talk about is how they demand a spaced-based air traffic control system operational in the next six months, and how they expect the Republican minority in congress to deliver it to them or they will vote Dem.
Newt, you are certifiable.
Newt is now heavily into pandering to whichever sides will consider listening to him, struggling to find any semblance of relevancy.
He seems to have decided that pandering to a number of small groups can equal a big win at the polls. He's wrong.
He came up with an 11-point "Values led" list he thinks/thought were critical to success at the polls in 2006. This is just more of that sort of thing.
They were/are:
1). Make English the Official Language of Government.
2. Control the Borders
3). Keep God in the Pledge.
4). Require a Voter ID Card.
5). Repeal the Death Tax, for Good.
6). Restore Property Rights.
7). Achieve Sustainable Energy Independence,
8). Control Spending and Balance the Budget.
9). Tie Education Funding to Teacher Accountability.
10). Defend America From the Irreconcilable Wing of Islam.
11). Focus on Iran and North Korea.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=16863
It isn't that some of these aren't decent ideas. Lowering taxes and a coherent foreign policy that protects America are necessary.
If Newt thinks that making English the official language or keeping God in the Pledge are what most Americans think are the most important issues facing the nation today, he is insane.
Hey Newt, how many gov employees are there now? 2 million?
“According to the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, federal employees earn an average annual compensation of $106,871, including pay and benefits, compared to just $53,288 in the private sector,” says Dennis Damp, author of “The Book of U.S. Government Jobs,” citing statistics gathered in late 2005 and early 2006.
LOL! Be serious. Gringrich is probably one of the most intelligent, tuned-in people in the entire Republican Party.
His Contract with America gave us the 1st GOP majority in 40 yrs, and you're telling us he hasn't "...a clue what's going on"?
What have you done with Cicero?
This really should have been addressed in 2000.
Try to ignore the urge to waste bandwidth sniping at Newt Gingrich. Put personal criticisms aside for a moment and absorb what this man is writing. He is correct about the main threat. The Republican party’s candidates for this November are too weak and face too much Democrat power to achieve many wins.
Despite this, the Republican party is the only possible home for the American people—those who understand that to be American is to forever love freedom and the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness. The Democrat party has walked away from those ideals and grown to attack the very freedoms that have made the individual the center of America and made our freedom and prosperity the hope of billions of struggling people around the world.
The road to these American ideals has not been easy. The mere establishment of the country and the many wars fought for freedom have not achieved a perfect America but there have been many victories. Only laziness and lack of knowledge of our great ideals have slowed and now retarded our pursuit of these ideals.
What is at stake? If we can’t transfuse the love of America once again into the arteries of the Republican leaders, struggling people the world over will lose hope that they, too, might one day achieve the successes of Americans. If we don’t fight for American ideals, we will get rule upon regulation upon tax upon bureaucrat upon speech code upon property control upon... We will get despair. If we don’t care about our country, we will be subject to the whims of those who care about taking our labor, our property, our actions and our thoughts.
In a Democrat Socialist controlled American, you will see most immediately higher taxation. If you think it is only the rich who will be hit with more graft by the government, you don’t understand the least bit about economics or the enemies of freedom. You will see control of the courts for many years to come—this means uncertainty about all you believe is the law. Do you believe you have a law that protects your private property—it will now be uncertain and dependent on the opinion of a judge. Do you believe you have a right to self-defense—it will be uncertain and dependent on the opinion of a judge. Do you believe you are in the right in a civil matter or a criminal matter—there is no certainty in the law and it will be a matter of opinion of a judge. Business won’t be able to plan, you won’t be safe in your person or property. Do you have children? More government control and less quality education—that’s been the correlation for decades. Then there is health care. With the Democrats in total control, the system will be one of low reimbursements to the actual health care workers, bureaucracy and paperwork to take up more of your time when you or your loved ones are sick and need fast care, and government preferences to favored constituencies. If you are a regular working American and have a need for care, you can bet that extra dollars or attention won’t be allocated to your needs. However, the health needs of a vocal advocacy group and Democrat constituency will get priority for reimbursements, research, and treatment. National sovereignty will be a taboo subject. Military and economic strength will be despised—and you can bet our economy will be chained down to more resemble that of a sluggish, old Europe kingdom. Forget working toward the American dream, that will be decried and taxation will ensure no incentives remain to motivate you to become successful.
The Republican party, flawed as it is, is the only hope for the defense and pursuit of American ideals. Fortunately for the Republican party, a fresh championing of those ideals might just distinguish the party brand and might attract the many many Americans who share those ideals. Also fortunate for the Republican party—those Americans are seeking a voice in government and some are willing to fight for those ideals. If the party will provide a home, the American people will reward and invigorate the party beyond the party leaders’ dreams. If the party continues to look down upon Americans with an arrogant sneer instead of looking up to Americans and offering support and respect, the future of the party is very dark and the future of America is dark, too.
Come on, Republican party! It’s not too late. Are you willing to win? I and a lot of Americans are ready but we need a party that will serve the American people and respect the pursuit of American ideals. People around the world are looking to you.
Just ask and together we will lead the way!
The most important issue facing the nation is keeping the radical Marxists ala Hussein Obama out of power.
If focussing a campaign on trivial issues that the Marxists are on the unpopular side of - the pledge, voter ID, gay marriage, etc - will help keep them out of power then yes, that is the most important thing we have going.
An intellectual campaign on major, shades of grey issues that really matter is going to lose to mob rule chanting soundbites they can understand every time. The Dems know it. Karl Rove knows it. Newt knows it.
That's the game, it's disgusting, but if we don't play we've already lost.
A campaign using leaders with opposite political views in harmony on the issue. BFD!
Loosen up, fish hawk. Maybe watch American Idol tonight. ;^)
It is because he sounds like Al Gore and the other Democrats.
Newt hangs with Nancy too much.
Has Hannity asked Newt about his global warming sell out since his commercial with Nancy?
I think so-called Special Elections are attractive for the opposition party. They are usually brought about by death or some other unusual circumstance that leaves the incumbent party short a real candidate. Often the Out Party has the only ready candidate that they can throw-in, plus a real incentive to heavily fund. I suspect that the R’s might take a beating in the Fall Congressional Elections, but that will depend a lot on how well McCain runs, not some half-*ssed extrapolation from 2 special elections.
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