Posted on 05/06/2008 12:58:54 PM PDT by The_Republican
Hillary Clinton can change her message, change her campaign manager, even change her hairstyle—but she can’t change the delegate math that makes it almost impossible for her to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
In several ways, recent news has been good to Clinton. She continues to win in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where there are large numbers of white working-class voters. Arguably, her coalition of white working-class and Hispanic voters is equal to Obama’s coalition of white-collar and African-American voters. Obama has been on the defensive lately, dealing with the continuing problem of his former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, and trying to explain his own comments that “bitter” blue-collar workers often “cling” to religion and guns instead of voting their economic interests. These two episodes—the Reverend Wright fiasco and “bitter-gate”—have revealed some chinks in Obama’s armor.
But the problem for Clinton is that Obama has a clear lead in delegates and that, short of a sudden Obama collapse, there are not enough delegates left for her to pull even, never mind pull into the lead.
Here is the math. There are 4,048 total delegates. You need 2,025 to win the nomination. Of those delegates, about 80 percent are selected in primaries and caucuses by voters, and 20 percent are the so-called superdelegates—party leaders and elected officials who get to vote by virtue of their position. As of today, Clinton and Obama are almost tied in endorsements by superdelegates, but Obama holds a lead in the elected delegates. Using the New York Times’s count, Obama has 1,735 delegates (a combined total of elected delegates and superdelegates) to Clinton’s 1,601.
Looking ahead, there are eight contests in states or territories which will select about 400 delegates by June 3. There are also around 250 uncommitted superdelegates. The most likely scenario is that Clinton and Obama will split the remaining 400 elected delegates equally. North Carolina is likely to go for Obama. Indiana and West Virginia favor Clinton and, added together, they have nearly the same number of delegates as North Carolina. Later in May, you have Kentucky (51 delegates), which favors Clinton, and Oregon (52 delegates), which favors Obama. Puerto Rico is likely to go for Clinton, but Obama is likely to win the last two western states, Montana and South Dakota (so far, he has won all of the mountain and plains states).
If we assume a 50-50 split of these delegates, then Obama will be at 1,935 and Clinton at 1,801. Obama will only need the support of about one-quarter of the remaining superdelegates to get the nomination. These superdelegates are likely to move in Obama’s direction as long as he maintains his lead.
Clinton’s best hope is for an Obama collapse: some event or series of events that causes voters and Democratic superdelegates to decide that Obama is unelectable in the general election. With such a collapse, Clinton might be able to get close in the delegate count and then persuade superdelegates to throw the nomination to her.
Is there any way Clinton could win without a complete Obama implosion? Might she surprise in a number of states, build up momentum, win a string of contests, and pull close enough that she could still be the nominee? The answer is probably no.
Here is my best shot at giving Clinton a strong finish to the primary season (and even this scenario leaves her 60 or 70 delegates short).
Let’s assume that Clinton wins Indiana by 10 percentage points and also scores a narrow upset victory in North Carolina. The Indiana win might bring her a net gain of 8 delegates. A Clinton win in North Carolina is likely to be extremely narrow; at most, it might give her a net gain of 2 delegates, but it would force people to look more seriously at her chances.
The next contest is West Virginia. There has been virtually no polling on the West Virginia primary, but neighboring Kentucky has some kinship with the Mountain State. Both states have a relatively small African-American population and high numbers of rural and white working-class voters. In Kentucky, Clinton has led in some polls by more than 35 percentage points. So let’s give West Virginia to Clinton with a generous 70-30 victory. That would yield her about 12 delegates more than Obama.
The following week, Kentucky and Oregon vote. Give Clinton a 70-30 win in Kentucky, which would net her another 20 delegates. Oregon should be an Obama state, but not everyone in the state works as a barista in a high-end coffee shop. There are plenty of rural and working-class voters—including many loggers and timber workers—who could go for Clinton. If we are very generous, with the trend in Clinton’s direction, she might be able to win a modest victory in Oregon. Let’s give her a big 10-point win and a net of 6 more delegates.
If all of this occurs (which is exceedingly unlikely), and if no superdelegates make endorsements in the meantime (also highly unlikely), then Clinton will have cut Obama’s lead by 50 delegates and will trail by only 80 to 90 delegates. Then comes the big prize of Puerto Rico, which has 55 elected delegates. By all accounts Clinton should win in Puerto Rico: she has done well among Hispanic voters, and there is a large Puerto Rican population in her home state of New York, where she has been elected to the Senate twice. The limited public polling on the race shows a modest lead for Clinton. But let’s give her a very big 65-35 win and a gain of 17 delegates. Then Clinton goes into the final two states of Montana and South Dakota—states that Obama should win—and with her momentum, she wins each by a 55-45 margin, netting her 4 delegates overall.
Even if this extremely unlikely scenario somehow played out, Clinton would still trail by 60 or 70 delegates. Her string of late victories might be enough to persuade some superdelegates to support her. But even an underperforming Obama would still be able to argue that he won a plurality of elected delegates. (And indeed, he had his own streak of 11 straight primary and caucus wins after Super Tuesday.) Ultimately, it will be very difficult for a supermajority of the remaining superdelegates to throw the nomination to Clinton if Obama still leads in elected delegates and is not "damaged goods."
So if you are a Clinton supporter, you should hope that Clinton wins in North Carolina and Indiana today and takes her momentum to the other states. But for her to win the nomination, you should hope for the killer Obama scandal, the knockout punch that makes him appear totally unelectable. Short of that, Clinton will trail in the delegate count in early June—and Obama will be the Democratic nominee.
It’s amazing that there is so much Obama-is-inevitable pronouncements that are going to be proved wrong.
Did you not read the article? It will be virtually impossible for Clinton to win. The ONLY way it could happen would be via the super delegates, or if she somehow has the rules changed to allow for Florida and Michigan to count.
Well, of course, everybody's known that for months.
I'm saying that the superdelegates already know that Obama would be a disaster and they are just waiting for the light to go on in the heads of enough true believers so there won't be a violent backlash.
Ummm, mathamatically, an Obama is pretty unlikely, too. He needs almost ALL the remaining pledged delegates to win.
This leaves things in the hands of the “superdelagates.” And Hillary “Have you ever seen your FBI file?” Clinton has a pretty good chance in that arena.
1) That's about how rapper R. Kelly's numbers have gone since it came out that he definitely had sex with young minor girls.
2) I would be surprised if Obama didn't have sex with minors, whether they were girls are boys.
That’s true. However, out of the remaining 260 Supers, he needs less than 100 and she needs neary 230.
Second, most of the Supers who are uncommitted are from Obama’s States.
Will Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, Illinois, Georgia, Wisconsin, Maryland and Minnesotta, States where he CLOBBERRED Hillary, abandon him?
Fat Chance.
In addition, North Carolina and Oregon are pretty big States and Demographics are in his favor. None of them is ready to abandon him.
Defections - all of them, have been from Hillary’s camp to Obama and not vice versa. So if at the Height of Wright/Elitist Scandal nobody panicked, I doubt they would panic when he is like 90 Supers short.
IF the Dems stick to the rules.
Thing is, they haven't been sticking to the rules.
Rules obviously aren't particularly important to them.
Clintons CAN change the math by prevailing on the DNC to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations as at the convention. It is pretty much what I expect to happen in order to give a cover to the bosses’ awarding of the nomination to the Clintons.
That’s what I’m talkin’ ‘bout! It’ll be McCain vs Obama in the GE, for all intensive porpoises, so let’s go get him!
“It’ll be McCain vs Obama in the GE, for all intensive porpoises,”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
But what if all the intensive porpoises get caught in the tuna nets?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Is it true that pledged delegates are only bound to their pledges for the first ballot? If so, then the “grand compromise” could go like this:
First ballot is not going to produce a nominee.
DNC has stuck to the rules about Florida and Michigan up until that point.
But now - after the first ballot - and pledged delegates are released, well, why not seat FL & MI delegates so that their “votes can be counted”?
Hillary Clinton is nominated on a later ballot, the riots happen, AND I NEVER LISTEN TO RUSH LIMBAUGH AGAIN.
Why isn’t it seen as a tad odd, that no one can say with authority what the ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS are for the democrat primary?
Notice how it’s phrased in this article:
” Using the New York Times’s count, Obama has 1,735 delegates...”
You always see this or such as “According to CNN..”
The democrats always claim election fraud, but they hold a primary and no one knows the result.
Indeed her plan is to change the rules seating FL and MI.
I read a month ago that she and Bill have packed the rules committee with all their pals.
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