The new, new math: Clinton's delegate count looks grim, Obama's electability questionable

MSNBC/The National Journal ^ | April. 29, 2008 | Charlie Cook

[2ndDivisionVet]

Despite the recent show of strength by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., the odds against_her_winning the Democratic presidential nomination are as imposing as ever—and probably worse.

There was a time when one of the stronger arguments in favor of nominating Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., was that he was more electable than Clinton.

The thinking at the time was that Clinton was so polarizing, she could get close to winning a general election but would have difficulty getting over the top.

Now, about the only plausible argument that Obama is more electable is to claim that Clinton’s backers would probably get_over an Obama nomination better and sooner than vice versa.

Indeed, while Obama might lose some states by narrower margins than Clinton, his weakness among downscale and older white voters raises questions about whether he would be as competitive as Clinton in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, or, for that matter, run as strongly as Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., did in 2004.

But the delegate math is the delegate math, and there is little if any good news there for Clinton.

Almost half of the delegate advantage she netted against Obama in Pennsylvania was offset by losses of superdelegates the same week. Colby College political scientist and delegate selection expert Anthony Corrado estimates that Clinton would need to win about 69 percent of the remaining delegates, a virtual impossibility given proportional representation of the nominating contests.

In recent months, Clinton has been losing up to three superdelegates for every one she has picked up.

One superdelegate in a Southern state, clearly a Clinton sympathizer, said it would be political suicide for him to oppose Obama, pointing out that the black community would be furious. The best support he could offer Clinton would be to remain neutral until it’s over.

[JCG]

Thank you for posting the link to TheReligionofPeace.com. It?s a great resource for putting the world view in perspective.

Glad to do it and I agree.  It doesn't take many readings to step out of the Obama/Clinton/McCain/GWB dream world of "Islam is peace" nonsense.

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Send treats to the troops...
Great because you did it!
www.AnySoldier.com

[mo]

“I sincerely wish FR would get properly calibrated on this....”

Thank you for a whiff of common sense. Americans traditionally transcend other ethnic/cultural groups by virtue of our ability to compromise to a workable solution to get the job done. Ya wouldn’t know that from hangin’ around here tho.