Posted on 05/02/2008 6:33:55 AM PDT by Mr. Brightside
Polls show voters drift to Clinton ahead of next primaries
By STEVEN R. HURST – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Polls showed voters drifting toward Hillary Rodham Clinton before crucial Democratic primary votes next week, but the all-important party superdelegates — whose backing is now essential for the nomination — were falling increasingly in line behind Barack Obama.
Despite the momentum building behind Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania, it still appeared mathematically impossible for her to overcome Obama's delegate lead for the party nomination.
In the past two months, Obama has whittled Clinton's superdelegate lead by half, a key gain for the Illinois senator because neither candidate can win the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination in the remaining nine state and territorial contests.
Clinton has a 20-superdelegate lead, 268-248, but Obama holds the overall advantage in delegates, including committed superdelegates, 1,736.5-1,602.5.
That means the superdelegates, the nearly 800 party officials and office holders free to back either candidate regardless of state votes, will decide the nominee. So far 516 have chosen sides.
Regardless, Clinton appeared to be gaining strength among voters, especially the white working-class which has reacted negatively to Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright — the Illinois senator's former pastor who called from the pulpit for God to damn America for it's treatment of African Americans.
Reflecting that shift, a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton's lead over Obama nationally among whites who did not attend college had increased from 10 points in March to 40 points at the end of April.
That voting bloc played heavily in Clinton's substantial win last week in Pennsylvania and was likely to be just as critical Tuesday, when voters cast ballots in Indiana. Pre-vote surveys there showed the outcome was a toss-up.
A second poll released Thursday carried more potential bad news for Obama, this in North Carolina, which votes in tandem with Indiana.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey for two television stations in the state showed Obama's double-digit lead had slipped to just seven points, 49-42.
Nationwide, the Pew poll showed, Democratic voters now are about evenly divided, with Obama holding a statistically insignificant 47-45 margin. In late March he was up 10 points, 49-39.
The latest Gallup tracking survey had Clinton leading 49-45, after a week of showing them nearly even. Obama held a 10-percentage point margin going into Pennsylvania.
The prolonged and divisive campaign was of particular concern for Democrats concerned about damage being done to the party's chances in the fall against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
McCain on Thursday went into the heart of America's farm belt to Iowa, a place where subsidies for corn and ethanol fuel are wildly popular, to denounce agricultural subsidies.
Congress is struggling to finish a nearly $300 billion (euro193.05 billion) bill that McCain says is bloated with subsidies for wealthy farmers. The bill would pay for farm and nutrition programs for the next five years.
"I have to give you a little straight talk about the farm bill that is wending its way through Congress. I do not support it. I would veto it. I would do that because I believe that the subsidies are unnecessary," he said.
His long-held position against subsidies has cost him in Iowa, the state that traditionally begins the presidential nominating process and is a potential swing state in the fall.
Despite his ties to U.S. President George W. Bush, whose approval rating is below 30 percent, McCain is running close to both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups.
Those fears led former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew on Thursday to switch his backing to Obama, despite having been named to the top party job by former President Bill Clinton.
"This has got to come to an end," Andrew told reporters in his hometown of Indianapolis. He said he planned to call all the other superdelegates he knows and encourage them to back Obama.
In a lengthy letter explaining his decision, Andrew said he changed candidates because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain."
"The ship is taking on water right now," Andrew said at the news conference. "We need to patch those holes, heal the rift and go forward to beat John McCain."
Asked for a response to Andrew's decision, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said, "We support that Democratic process and think that every American should be able to weigh in and support the candidate of his or her own choosing."
Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also sent a memo to superdelegates Thursday arguing that the polls prove she is the strongest candidate to beat McCain. Among the polls they cited was an Associated Press-Ipsos survey out this week that showed Clinton leading McCain by 9 percentage points, while Obama is virtually tied with the likely Republican nominee.
This week, Obama picked up nine superdelegates, plus three add-on delegates named by the Illinois Democratic Party. Clinton gained four new superdelegates, while also picking up four add-on delegates from her home state of New York.
In the southwestern state of New Mexico, a group of Clinton supporters, including four New Mexico superdelegates, has accused the state Democratic Party of breaking national and state party rules when it nominated a 12th superdelegate.
The woman chosen has said she is undecided, but the Clinton group believes she is an Obama supporter. The Clinton supporters nominated their own candidate, who they think leans toward Clinton.
Hillary will put her finger into the wind (just like Slick did) on most issues and do whatever is politically expedient,,,,
and when it comes to being a far-left extremist, Obama (when compared to Hillary), is a CRUSADER (which makes him much more dangerous)!!!
He did not protect the country either; but Obama would deliberately destroy the economy AND expose the country to acts of terrorism.
So, you always go after the front runner, and worry about the second-place guy next.
It actually is; you couldn't ask for a better situation: Obama gaining superdelegates while Hillary gains in popular support.
Accordingly, she is going to go to the convention with a strong argument to take the nomination despite trailing in delegates. I will e-mail my Excel spreadsheet to anybody who freepmails me with a request and a valid e-mail address.
how?
thanks
In any election in which you have the chance to vote, do so. Too many men have died to provide you with that right.
You may not have anyone you really want to vote for, but you will always have someone you wish to vote against.
The same way RR did it.
Ronald Reagan purged the Republican party of no good libs? I didn’t know that … how did he do that?
That’s right. There’s no difference between the R party of the 80s and the R party or today. Sure. That’s right. Yes sir.
(I guess you’re just too young to remember.)
the all-important party superdelegates -- whose backing is now essential for the nomination -- were falling increasingly in line behind Barack ObamaBattlestar Chaotica!
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