Posted on 05/02/2008 6:33:55 AM PDT by Mr. Brightside
Polls show voters drift to Clinton ahead of next primaries
By STEVEN R. HURST – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Polls showed voters drifting toward Hillary Rodham Clinton before crucial Democratic primary votes next week, but the all-important party superdelegates — whose backing is now essential for the nomination — were falling increasingly in line behind Barack Obama.
Despite the momentum building behind Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania, it still appeared mathematically impossible for her to overcome Obama's delegate lead for the party nomination.
In the past two months, Obama has whittled Clinton's superdelegate lead by half, a key gain for the Illinois senator because neither candidate can win the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination in the remaining nine state and territorial contests.
Clinton has a 20-superdelegate lead, 268-248, but Obama holds the overall advantage in delegates, including committed superdelegates, 1,736.5-1,602.5.
That means the superdelegates, the nearly 800 party officials and office holders free to back either candidate regardless of state votes, will decide the nominee. So far 516 have chosen sides.
Regardless, Clinton appeared to be gaining strength among voters, especially the white working-class which has reacted negatively to Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright — the Illinois senator's former pastor who called from the pulpit for God to damn America for it's treatment of African Americans.
Reflecting that shift, a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton's lead over Obama nationally among whites who did not attend college had increased from 10 points in March to 40 points at the end of April.
That voting bloc played heavily in Clinton's substantial win last week in Pennsylvania and was likely to be just as critical Tuesday, when voters cast ballots in Indiana. Pre-vote surveys there showed the outcome was a toss-up.
A second poll released Thursday carried more potential bad news for Obama, this in North Carolina, which votes in tandem with Indiana.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey for two television stations in the state showed Obama's double-digit lead had slipped to just seven points, 49-42.
Nationwide, the Pew poll showed, Democratic voters now are about evenly divided, with Obama holding a statistically insignificant 47-45 margin. In late March he was up 10 points, 49-39.
The latest Gallup tracking survey had Clinton leading 49-45, after a week of showing them nearly even. Obama held a 10-percentage point margin going into Pennsylvania.
The prolonged and divisive campaign was of particular concern for Democrats concerned about damage being done to the party's chances in the fall against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.
McCain on Thursday went into the heart of America's farm belt to Iowa, a place where subsidies for corn and ethanol fuel are wildly popular, to denounce agricultural subsidies.
Congress is struggling to finish a nearly $300 billion (euro193.05 billion) bill that McCain says is bloated with subsidies for wealthy farmers. The bill would pay for farm and nutrition programs for the next five years.
"I have to give you a little straight talk about the farm bill that is wending its way through Congress. I do not support it. I would veto it. I would do that because I believe that the subsidies are unnecessary," he said.
His long-held position against subsidies has cost him in Iowa, the state that traditionally begins the presidential nominating process and is a potential swing state in the fall.
Despite his ties to U.S. President George W. Bush, whose approval rating is below 30 percent, McCain is running close to both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups.
Those fears led former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew on Thursday to switch his backing to Obama, despite having been named to the top party job by former President Bill Clinton.
"This has got to come to an end," Andrew told reporters in his hometown of Indianapolis. He said he planned to call all the other superdelegates he knows and encourage them to back Obama.
In a lengthy letter explaining his decision, Andrew said he changed candidates because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain."
"The ship is taking on water right now," Andrew said at the news conference. "We need to patch those holes, heal the rift and go forward to beat John McCain."
Asked for a response to Andrew's decision, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said, "We support that Democratic process and think that every American should be able to weigh in and support the candidate of his or her own choosing."
Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also sent a memo to superdelegates Thursday arguing that the polls prove she is the strongest candidate to beat McCain. Among the polls they cited was an Associated Press-Ipsos survey out this week that showed Clinton leading McCain by 9 percentage points, while Obama is virtually tied with the likely Republican nominee.
This week, Obama picked up nine superdelegates, plus three add-on delegates named by the Illinois Democratic Party. Clinton gained four new superdelegates, while also picking up four add-on delegates from her home state of New York.
In the southwestern state of New Mexico, a group of Clinton supporters, including four New Mexico superdelegates, has accused the state Democratic Party of breaking national and state party rules when it nominated a 12th superdelegate.
The woman chosen has said she is undecided, but the Clinton group believes she is an Obama supporter. The Clinton supporters nominated their own candidate, who they think leans toward Clinton.
And who continues to advocate assaults on free speech (he still claims 527’s should be outlawed).
And who continues to advocate comprehensive immigration (a.k.a., amnesty for illegals).
The McCain of the past decade is the same McCain who gave the Conservatives the middle-finger salute after his win in South Carolina.
Anyone who votes for McCain and expects a different result is delusional
_________________________
While I agree with McCain on his farm bill and trade stances, I do not agree with his 527 rubbish. I may get flamed, but I agree with his new approach to immigration (secure the borders first, then deal with the 12 million).
With respect to your last point (don’t expect a different McCain) I tend to agree. However, he will be pitted against a Democratic congress, and it may be that gives him the political opporunities to take stands that favor limited government and lower taxes. You never know.
What we do know is that Obama and Hillary, coupled with Pelosi and Reid, will most certainly not limit government or lower taxes. They will also pass greater union “rights” (just look at what unions have done for the economies of Michigan and Ohio). Clinton says she wants a windfall profits tax - that is straight out of Jimmy Carter’s playbook. God help us all, if either Democrat is elected president.
Tell me please the bright side of a Hillary Rotten Clinton presidency.Four bright points:
1. She's not Obama.
2. We might be able to purge our party of RINOs, who brought us the very defeatable Juan McCain.
3. She will spend at least the first two years getting revenge against all those Democrats who went against her.
4. The GOP won't be blamed for the coming economic mess (which Juan McCain is genetically incapable of addressing in a logical manner).
There isn't going to be one.
From the article: "Polls showed voters drifting toward Hillary Rodham Clinton before crucial Democratic primary votes next week, but the all-important party superdelegates — whose backing is now essential for the nomination — were falling increasingly in line behind Barack Obama. ..... Despite the momentum building behind Clinton after her win in Pennsylvania, it still appeared mathematically impossible for her to overcome Obama's delegate lead for the party nomination."
The Democrat identity politics have created a dynamic that makes it impossible for Hillary to win the number of party hack superdelegates votes needed to win the nomination and makes it impossible for Obama to win the number of average voters needed to win the general election.
“Better than Barack ‘jimmah’ Obama”
I agree... Unless one is totally sure the a-hole McCain can win, (and I don’t believe he can) we need to support the lesser of two evils i the democratic party. That would be Hillary...
Obama is actually proposing much larger government spending than Hillary. Obama is proposing large grants to all college students, grants to working poor, grants to non-working poor and larger tax increases on the 'rich'. His social security reform will be a massive tax increase on all those making more than $90K. Hillary panders to the radical left, but is just lip service. Hillary will govern slightly to the left of Bill which is bad, but Obama will govern to the left of Jimmy, which is downright scary.
I find her more obnoxious and crooked than Obama. He’s an ideologue she’s the one who sold missal technology to the Chicoms as well as pardons to terrorists and their sympathizers. She’s also the one that will screw up the health care system worse than the other two. Now to purging the party, if you succeed at that what advantage do we have if they get a 60 seat majority? This whole temper tantrum waged against McCain because we conservatives could not produce one candidate that we could all get behind is counter productive. Fred may have been that guy but he ran the most half assed campaign I’ve ever seen. I’m not willing to get back at the republican party by selling the military out or cutting and running in the WOT to teach anyone a lesson. I also am not willing to sell out the cause of the unborn or allow either Hillary or Obama supreme court nominees.
NOT
Operation Chaos is ripping the Rat party in at least 2 ways. At this point I wouldn’t give it to McCain but if either Rat is elected it won’t be a year and they will start eating their own and impeach whoever it is.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hLPqTxd4Fe7e5EymHU-kTUgweRDQD90DI0KG0
Another reason Obama is losing support. Everyone wants an immediate break if they can get it no matter how small but Obama is stuck on stupid and won't even come up with anything.
Perfect. Couldn’t work out any better. I want Hillary to win the popular vote, all the big states, and have momentum going to Denver; I want Obama to have most of the Supers; I want Hillary to scream “The will of the people,” vs. Obama’s elites. I want to see chaos!
Democrats have a history of nominating candidates that can’t win.
I’ll tell you it would be no different than the bright side of an Obama presidency, and possibly worse. She’s a liberal socialist, but I don’t think she’s a racist.
What most of the KAOS/Hillary lovers/ supporters also don’t understand is this shit is ripping the Republican party asunder also. Just look at some of the vile and hate-filled posts on FR. I would let surgeons amputate one of my limbs if it would keep the Clintons out of the WH again. Then you have the fearers/haters of Obama that laugh at us and mock us. It does little good to keep the enemy in disarray when the ‘strategy’ has the same effect on our side.
He's naive and inexperienced and , I believe, incompetent. Frankly, I think he is Jimmah Carter redux and won't end up getting a damn thing through Congress, even with a Democrap Congress... He'd be a danger on foreign policy but so would Hitlery..Only, with Hitlery, she is so single minded about health care nationalisation, I think shed pull it off. She is too scary by half.
She's a misandryst. She's already proven that a 100 times over, particularly with Women against Violence law she pushed through and the horrific Cabinet appts. she pushed through (Achtenberg, Shalala, etc). She is agenda driven, and its not pretty.
Obama is way over his head but I think this whole race hating associations were just what he needed to get elected in Chicago. What I see in him is Jimmah Carter. What I see in her is an Evil Man Hating B!tch.
Unless, of course, the alternative is an Obama presidency, where he keeps his campaign promise to unilaterally surrender in Iraq and leaver our supporters there to die gruesome deaths by the thousands. Save Iraqi children. Do what it takes to weaken Obama.
Anything on the percentage of blacks (and liberal white elites) who agree with Rev. Wright?
I bet it’s 90%+
Democrats: The only valid reason to vote for Republicans.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.