Posted on 04/30/2008 7:36:27 PM PDT by operationchaos
Just got an email from Insideradvantage's latest NC poll, not on their website yet.
April 30, 2008 — A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8% The results were: April 30(April 13) Hillary Clinton: 44% (36%) Barack Obama: 42% (51%) Undecided: 14%
Prior to his appearance on FoxNews Network’s “Hannity & Colmes,” on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.
“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.
“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina. “If this white vote shift does not erode, given that North Carolina’s white Democratic voters are primarily in the Research Triangle, where education and personal finances are in the top tier for the nation, then I would say this suggests a major shift in all future primaries towards Clinton,” said Towery.
ONE poll, ONE LOUSY POLL of 571 people and some of you people go nuclear at Rush. “WE’RE DOOMED, WE’RE ALL DOOMED”
I never kid about something so serious as that. If Hillary gets the nomination and then the presidency, Rush will get the blame, and deservedly so.
Of course you are right, the members of Daily KOS, Move-On and other assorted left wing-nuts for Obama will just say "Yowsa" and let Clinton snatch the nomination from BHO even though BHO has a majority of pledged delegates from elections and caucuses. /sarc
Right now they do not count but if they are accepted (if rejected, HRC takes it to the convention floor), it moves the # of delegates required for the nomination from 2,025 to 2,225. And Hillary has a net +113 delegates from those two states.
If the likely decision of the credentials committee is to grant them 50% strength then HRC will take it to the August convention floor; and for two months she will hammer on BHO's weaknesses to soften up the superDs who have proven they can wavier & switch.
“Rush has made it clear Operation Chaos is not designed to pick the winner but to make the race so close the Superdelegates are in paralysis to make a decision.
It’s working great, vote for Hillary next Tuesday in North Carolina and Indiana and tighten this deal up some more”
Good post, you see what others here ignore.
If Hillary eeks out an upset in North Carolina - even by a single percentage point - it will “tip” the momentum to her side, regardless of Hussein’s delegate count.
Obama will probably retain a lead in elected/caucused delegates right up to the convention floor. But Hillary should overtake him in the actual vote count. At the convention, the superdelegates will not be able to brush this anamoly off, particularly if Hillary starts winning all or most of the primaries as the end of the race closes in.
Eventually, the Michigan and Florida delegates will have to be incorporated into the process. I cannot forsee how the “make every vote count” party will disenfranchise their voters in TWO ENTIRE STATES, both of which are crucial to the party come general election time. This helps Hillary as she won both states delegate-wise, and the inclusion of the popular vote from both states pushes her ‘way over the top in that category.
A North Carolina upset will have the effect of “repositioning” B. Hussein Obama. I believe that he will be no longer perceived (by both the electorate and the mainstream media) as the candidate of “change” and “unity”, but rather will be recognized for who he IS: “the black candidate”, with views that do not represent those of most (i.e. “white”) Americans.
And that’s a good thing.
- John
If Fauxbama somehow loses NC, that’s a huge upset.
However with blacks making up about 40% of the registered democrats in the state, I am hard pressed to believe it will happen. He’s got a virtual lock on those 38%, so he only needs about 1 in 6 white voters to vote for him and he wins the primary.
There are enough limosine liberals in NC to ensure he’ll get that 1 in 6. Fauxbama gets rich white liberals, and blacks... that’s it. He gets little to no support anywhere else. But this should be mroe than enough to win NC.. if he loses NC, then Dems are going to be in complete panic mode.
Did you purposely neglect to cut and paste the second part of my post?
Here's my FULL post again. I'll underscore for you this time the part you ignored.
If Hillary has the majority of the total primary vote, enough super delegates will commit to Hillary in June.
I know it's harder for you to do, but the next time you should try to address the full context of my argument.
Why would I repeat a part of your comment I agreed with and about which I had nothing to say? You just want to be stroked?
As for what the left crazies will do if BHO is dissed I think they will riot. Note that sarcasm was applied in my response.
Anybody who has been paying attention has seen the CONTINUAL leftward drift of John McCain.
Is he as bad as Clinton or Obama, No.
However, he sure isn’t much of a Republican either.
Almost every day you will see him mix his populism and liberalism in with whatever conservatism he has left in order to try and woo the moderate and liberal voters to him.
He is constantly flirting with the enemy.
If that is what you want, so be it, but it is not for me.
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