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Global warming may 'stop', scientists predict
UK Telegraph ^ | April 30 2008

Posted on 04/30/2008 1:11:40 PM PDT by knighthawk

Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.

Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged.

This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.

However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model.

Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany, said: "The IPCC would predict a 0.3°C warming over the next decade. Our prediction is that there will be no warming until 2015 but it will pick up after that."

He stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone away.

The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest year ever recorded in 1998.

Today's paper in Nature tries to simulate the variability of these events and longer cycles, such as the giant ocean "conveyor belt" known as the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which brings warm water north into the North East Atlantic.

This has a 70 to 80-year cycle and when the circulation is strong, it creates warmer temperatures in Europe. When it is weak, as it will be over the next decade, temperatures fall. Scientists think that variations of this kind could partly explain the cooling of global average temperatures between the 1940s and 1970s after which temperatures rose again.

Writing in Nature, the scientists said: "Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic [manmade] warming."

The study shows a more pronounced weakening effect than the Met Office's Hadley Centre, which last year predicted that global warming would slow until 2009 and pick up after that, with half the years after 2009 being warmer than the warmest year on record, 1998.

Commenting on the new study, Richard Wood of the Hadley Centre said the model suggested the weakening of the MOC would have a cooling effect around the North Atlantic.

"Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longer-term warming trend from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

"That emphasises once again the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades."

But he said the use of just sea surface temperatures might not accurately reflect the state of the MOC, which was several miles deep and dependent on factors besides temperatures, such as salt content, which were included in the Met Office Hadley Centre model.

If the model could accurately forecast other variables besides temperature, such as rainfall, it would be increasingly useful, but climate predictions for a decade ahead would always be to some extent uncertain, he added.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: globalwarming
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1 posted on 04/30/2008 1:11:40 PM PDT by knighthawk
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To: MizSterious; Nix 2; green lantern; BeOSUser; Brad's Gramma; dreadme; Turk2; keri; ...

Ping


2 posted on 04/30/2008 1:12:05 PM PDT by knighthawk (We will always remember We will always be proud We will always be prepared so we may always be free)
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To: knighthawk
Sounds like a Global Climate Change hudna
3 posted on 04/30/2008 1:13:17 PM PDT by C210N (The television has mounted the most serious assault on Republicanism since Das Kapital.)
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To: knighthawk

“Consensus” apparently means something different from what I thought.


4 posted on 04/30/2008 1:14:28 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: knighthawk

OMG, so like Mother Earth is like giving us another 5 or 6 years to get our acts together before it gets like really, really hot.


5 posted on 04/30/2008 1:15:01 PM PDT by TC Rider (The United States Constitution ? 1791. All Rights Reserved.)
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To: C210N

I certainly hope and pray that if we allocate 9999% of our GNP in 2009 thru 2014 to fighting man-made global warming, we just might head off the Global Warming Resumption in 2015.


6 posted on 04/30/2008 1:15:03 PM PDT by C210N (The television has mounted the most serious assault on Republicanism since Das Kapital.)
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To: knighthawk; TenthAmendmentChampion; Horusra; CygnusXI; Fiddlstix; Timeout; Entrepreneur; ...
 




Beam me to Planet Gore !

7 posted on 04/30/2008 1:15:15 PM PDT by steelyourfaith
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To: knighthawk
Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

How convenient...for them.

8 posted on 04/30/2008 1:15:26 PM PDT by Captain Rhino ( If we have the WILL to do it, there is nothing built in China that we cannot do without.)
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To: knighthawk

And saccharine won’t kill you.

And everyone and their brother won’t get AIDS, though a huge % of homosexual men will due to their chosen indulgent behavior.


9 posted on 04/30/2008 1:15:29 PM PDT by Notwithstanding ("You are either with America in our time of need or you are not" - Hillary from Senate well 9/12/01)
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To: knighthawk

natural variations in the climate

‘’

uhhh,, does not compute..

muh circuit boards already melted down the day Goreball called me and many others deniers and liars. 8’*


10 posted on 04/30/2008 1:17:21 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed ... San FRancisco or Bust!)
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To: TC Rider

But algore said within 10 years it is unreversable..What gives?


11 posted on 04/30/2008 1:17:32 PM PDT by Holicheese (Hillary deserves the CMoH for her time in Tuzla!)
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To: knighthawk

“Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate..”

The global warming hoax is of course, nothing more than socilists attempting to capitalize on natural variations in the climate, in the interest of expansion of government, and theft of funds, both from legitimate, productive corporations and law-abiding, honest taxpayers.

The puny forces of mankind cannot even begin to make a dent in global climatic trends.


12 posted on 04/30/2008 1:18:17 PM PDT by EyeGuy
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To: knighthawk
Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.

Trying to explain their lies about global warming while keeping the push on for increased taxes. What a bunch of great guys, huh? They are hoping they can get even a .001 C increase by 2015 so hey can scream global warming again.

13 posted on 04/30/2008 1:19:30 PM PDT by calex59
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To: knighthawk

I CRY BS!


14 posted on 04/30/2008 1:19:57 PM PDT by poobear (tagline is on a coffee break!)
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To: knighthawk

You mean we won’t all become cannibals . . . until later?


15 posted on 04/30/2008 1:20:49 PM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia (Rush on McCain: "We're so screwed.")
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To: knighthawk

Yesirreee, that there global warming check is right there in the mail.... lol!


16 posted on 04/30/2008 1:20:49 PM PDT by El Laton Caliente (NRA Member & www.Gunsnet.net Moderator)
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To: knighthawk
This gives them permission to continue their global warming crud through any possible “hiatus” that may occur. When 10 years is past, they'll be lengthening the time to 25-50 years of “hiatus” when “global temperatures” cease to increase.

They'll continue to assure us that the money they want spent on anti-global warming efforts will be money well-spent.

It's so easy to see how these hucksters work.

17 posted on 04/30/2008 1:21:22 PM PDT by ConservativeMind
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To: knighthawk; MizSterious; Nix 2; green lantern; BeOSUser; Brad's Gramma; dreadme; Turk2; keri
Translation:

OK! We were dead wrong.
But it's still the fault of evil industrialized man!

18 posted on 04/30/2008 1:21:23 PM PDT by Kenny Bunk (GOP Plank: Pump MORE US Crude--2Xrefining capacity -- Coal /METHANOL fuel-- Build Nukes)
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To: knighthawk

How convenient to have a policy or belief system that covers all eventualities.


19 posted on 04/30/2008 1:21:47 PM PDT by Let's Roll (As usual, following a shooting spree, libs want to take guns away from those who DIDN'T do it.)
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To: poobear

Full CYA mode...the warming is warming but not now...

send money.


20 posted on 04/30/2008 1:21:58 PM PDT by Crim (Dont frak with the Zeitgeist....)
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