Posted on 04/30/2008 5:50:57 AM PDT by RSmithOpt
OK folks, after Monday's and yesterday's regular drop in crude and gas prices resulting from profit taking of speculators, would anyone want to bet that gasoline will be 5-10 cents higher at the pumps by Friday/Saturday this coming weekend?
I'm willing to bet one gallon of gas to a donut, it does.
I have watched this pattern for well over 8 months now. As of this morning both commodities being reported on Bloomberg are indicating the regular Wed/Thur/Fri rise.
If prices drop today or Thursday, there will be the obligatory incident somewhere as a pipeline blows up or refinery fire, Congress ran out of toilet paper, etc. by lunchtime Friday.
The crude they are buying today doean’t make to the refinery for weeks. If it’s futures that you are watching then it’s months.
A Primer on Gasoline Prices http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/primer_on_gasoline_prices/html/petbro.html
Wow, what a gambler,
you want to bet that the price of gas goes up? With a 5 cent spread too!!
Risk taker!!!!
I’m going out on a limb here and predicting electricity will be higher this summer when it is 98 degrees with 82% humidity in Houston....;^)
The excuse will be that the gasoline in the pumps is that produced from the $120 per barrel oil...
There will always be an excuse. That is the problem when markets are driven (manipulated) the way they are.
The good old days of the market mostly being impacted by supply & demand are past.
Many times, pump prices go up correspondingly within the next 24 hours of the Nymex RBOB here in NC.
Actually, that is specifically the last 8 months what I've been tracking with world refinery, oil platform, shipping, pipeline problems reported in the news.
Track it and you too will see.
OK, your guess, please....up 5 - 10 cents by Friday or not???
Prices typically go up this time of the year as demand increases while refining capacity decreases during the summer fuel switch.
Prices will be higher a month from now but anything could happen after that.
Thanks...I’ve seen that before. My point is the market is being manipulated not by supply and demand, but speculation and more......wait until the first tropical low develops 1700 miles from the US this summer.
exactly...start graphing date versus wholesale futures increase and your local gas price increases. They call it ‘futures’, which I thought were 30+ days out for delivery.....the price at the pumps reflects that futures increase within 24 hours and that gasoline (in the future) isn’t even in the tanks at the refinery yet for delivery, but we pay like it’s already there in the tanks in the ground at the stations.
Oh, Now you’re just throwing caution to the wind!!
Just a nickel? Here in NW Indiana we saw a 12-15 cent jump yesterday...up to $3.75/gal. (BTW...We’re in the backyard of BP’s Whiting refinery.)
Track what you pay versus the futures increase....there's no delay in the price increases, just delays when price has fallen for a week or more.
We're getting hosed because the stations already know how mush is in their tanks at what price and the RBOB increase matches the pump price increases within 24 hours, not 30 days out.
The government really enjoys rape, sodomy, and theft don't they?
I would surely guess up. The gas did not drop at all here in CT. It's now at $4 for regular at the all the high volume stations (like those near the highway).
We will probably see $5 gas by summer.
Factor any news about oil delivery, gas production problem news story and weight it with a 1, 2, or 3 (number of stories printed and volumes affected) as it's significance and the 0.88 is dang near repeatable every week.
It’s a brave prediction, I know...
"speculation" is part of supply and demand. Let's put this on a micro scale as a lot of folks don't understand the macro scale. In the commodity market, an American bidder, for example, is bidding against rivals from all over the world, now, more than ever, India and China. The speculation comes in that how much he is willing to bid to buy that barrel versus let someone from China buy that barrel. He has to speculate how much he can spend without risking going too low, and letting someone else get that barrel of oil, or going to high and paying too much and paying too much against the market. This challenge is multiplied when the dollar is worth less against the competing currencies (albeit, it is only a few percentage points off right now), so the currency in China is worth more against our bid, and thus, they are willing to bid more.
This isn't much different than if you were bidding at a car auction for your favorite GT500 Mustang. You have other people who want it and you would want to bid high enough to bid out the other bidders, but not so high you exceed the value of the car.
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