From William Gray's (Global-Warming denier) forecast for the season:
"We are now calling for a very active hurricane season. Landfall probabilities for the 2007 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages."
Hmmm...looks like you're right...we can't trust William Gray's predictions.
And, of course, since casinos can't forcast tomorrow's roll of the dice, there's no possible way they can predict the overall probabilities. </sarc>