Posted on 04/23/2008 5:29:43 AM PDT by Impy
Democrat Travis W. Childers led the field and just narrowly missed the majority vote he needed for an outright victory in a special election held Tuesday in Mississippi’s 1st District. Childers now moves on to a May 13 runoff with Republican Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, in a district that has a conservative lean and usually votes strongly Republican in contests for federal office.
Childers received 49.4 percent, just short of the 50 percent threshold, according to complete but unofficial returns. Davis received 46.3 percent of the vote and trailed Childers by more than 2,000 votes, staving off elimination only by running up a margin of more than 8,000 votes in his home base of DeSoto County. Four other candidates were on the ballot, on which party affiliations were not listed, and they combined to total the remaining 4.3 percent of the vote.
Childers now faces a three-week runoff campaign with an uncertain outcome. But his first-place finish marks the latest startling surprise for the Democratic Party, and the latest setback for a national Republican Party that has struggled to regain its footing since its losses in the 2006 congressional elections overturned its majorities in both the House and the Senate.
(Excerpt) Read more at cqpolitics.com ...
Wrong. it’s a solidly Republican district. What’s going on here is a Tupelo v. Desoto rivalry - and possibly some sleeping overconfident GOP voters.
Yeah that’s a good point. PA was a disaster. You’d need someone with surgical precision to draw up those districts, plus you’d have to watch out for rural ancestrial Democratic counties that might turn on you in a bad year. It’d be a creative (perhaps even fun) exercise, but the pitfalls are there as you said.
In the departing era of GWB, virtually nothing is a “safe” Republican district any more.
It’s not hard to outflank the GOP to the Right. I believe you are going to see Mrs. Clinton do just that... if she gets the nomination.
In TN, the 5th CD should be made *more* Democrat, not less, so as to allow the GOP to win the Tanner, Gordon and Davis CDs. I think a 7-2 GOP delegation is more than OK for TN.
As for PA, I’ve written about this before, and the GOP overplayed it’s hand and got too cute in the 2001 redistricting. It tried to draw PA-11, PA-12 and PA-13 in such a way that could be potentially winnable for the GOP, and by doing so it made the PA-04, PA-18, PA-17, PA-15, PA-06, PA-07 and PA-08 less comfortably Republican than they could be (the PA-10 is as GOP as it needs to be; we lost it because of the incumbent’s despicable personal behavior). Harrisburgh should have been placed in the Platts CD to the south, and Pottstown should have been drawn into the PA-11, thereby making the PA-17 unwinnable for Holden. Lower Bucks County should have been placed in the PA-13, and Lower Merion in the PA-01, and the Dem-leaning parts of Chester County should have gone into Pitts’s CD, thereby drawing GOP-leaning PA-06, PA-07 and PA-08. At least part of Allentown or Bethlehem could have gone into the PA-11, making the PA-15 more comfortably GOP. The Democrat areas in the PA-04 and PA-18 could have been placed in the two Pittsburgh-area RAT CDs and if it meant that Mascara and Doyle would survive and Murtha would lose, then so be it. We could have had a 13-6 delegation for the entire decade, instead of the fiasco we have today. It all comes from getting greedy and hoping against hope to carry districts that gave President Bush 42% in 2000.
They must have thought Joe Hoffell’s win in PA-13 was a fluke they’d soon reverse with the right candidate, as it used to be a strongly Republican district. They almost ousted him in 2002 with Melissa Brown, but that race came on board rather late in the game. If she won, she might have been able to hold on in 2004, but even if she did, she’d have been blown out in 2006 with the toxic environment for the GOP in the Philly burbs. They ought to have conceded that these suburbs were slipping out of their hands, and used PA-13 to stuff in Lower Bucks and parts of Delaware County to keep PA-7 and PA-8 more GOP.
Even if they thought that Hoeffel’s win in the PA-13 was a fluke, making the district more Democrat surely wouldn’t help us win it from him. The GOP’s strategy was to draw a district that gave a Philly Democrat (such as incumbent Robert Borski) the advantage in the Dem primary and a Montco Republican the advantage in the general. (In truth, a Montco Republican would not have the advantage in the general, since the district only gave President Bush 42% in 2000, but, as I’ve said before, PA Republicans let their greed cloud their judgment.) What actually occurred was that Borski retired instead of facing Hoeffel in a divisive primary, and while RINO Melissa Brown almost pulled off the upset against Hoeffel (she lost 52%-48% IIRC), the only reason why it was that close was that Hoeffel ran poorly in Philadelphia due to his inexperience with urban issues and controversy regarding Section 8 housing (Hoeffel got 52% in both Montco and Philly despite the Philly portion of the CD being far more heavily Democrat). Melissa Brown got sdpanked by Hoeffel in presidential-election-year 2004 (losing especially big in Philly), and I don’t think she could have held the seat in 2004 had she pulled off the upset in 2002.
Thanks to GOP redistricting that tried to draw a “winnable” PA-13, we lost the PA-07 and PA-08 and have barely won the PA-06 the past three elections. I hope that we can control redistricting again in 2011 and that this time the PA GOP doesn’t get as greedy when drawing the lines.
Surely you jest?
Well, they were, but Lincoln Chafee was defeated in 06 in Rhode Island!
One down and a bunch to go
Who say’s Wicker was the strongest candidate?
As to filibustering, I doubt they have the nads. And with all the liberal Republicans like Snowne, Collins, Specter, Voinovich....
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