Posted on 04/18/2008 2:03:23 PM PDT by mdittmar
WASHINGTON - Time is running out on Hillary Rodham Clinton, the long-ago front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination who now trails Barack Obama in delegates, states won and popular votes.
Compounding Clinton's woes, Obama appears on track to finish the primary campaign fewer than 100 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to win.
Clinton argues to Democratic officialdom that other factors should count, an unprovable assertion that she's more electable chief among them. But she undercut her own claim in Wednesday night's debate, answering "yes, yes, yes" when asked whether her rival could win the White House.
There's little if any public evidence the party's elite, the superdelegates who will attend the convention, are buying her argument anyway.
In the days since the surfacing of Obama's worst gaffe of the campaign _ an observation that small town Americans are bitter folk who cling to religion and guns out of frustration _ he has gained six convention superdelegates, to two for Clinton.
"I investigated and studied the context of the whole speech," said one of the six, Reggie Whitten of Oklahoma, who told Obama on Tuesday he would support him. "I think the comment was to some extent taken out of context and blown up, but I can tell you I think people in small towns have a lot of reason to be bitter," added Whitten, who grew up in Seminole, a town of 6,700.
Clinton leads in Pennsylvania polls in advance of Tuesday's primary there, with 158 convention delegates at stake. A victory is essential to her chances of winning the nomination, but far from sufficient. Instead, a triumph of any magnitude would instantly establish Indiana on May 6 as her next must-win state, particularly since her aides have privately signaled that defeat is likely in North Carolina on the same day.
Overall, Obama's delegate lead is 1,645-1,505. That masks an even larger advantage among those won in primaries and caucuses. There, his advantage is 1,414-1,250.
An additional 566 are at stake in the remaining contests in eight states, Guam and Puerto Rico before the primary season ends on June 3.
If Obama captures 53 percent of them, which is the share he has gained in contests to date, he would close out the primary season with at least 1,945 delegates, only 80 less than the total needed to clinch the nomination. If he and Clinton split the 566 evenly, he would still be within 100 of the number needed.
Clinton needs to win a forbidding 65 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries to draw even with Obama in pledged delegates. It's a share she has achieved only once so far, in Arkansas, where her husband was governor for more than a decade.
Given the unyielding delegate math, Clinton has relied for weeks on forbearance from party leaders to sustain her challenge. And they are growing restless, eager for the epic nomination battle to end so Democrats can unify for the fall campaign against John McCain and the Republicans.
In fact, it's unlikely any other candidate could have survived as long without coming under overwhelming pressure to withdraw.
"There aren't many figures in American politics who could sustain 11 straight losses and hang into a race and raise $35 million," Obama said at The Associated Press annual meeting recently. "So in that sense she's unique, and the fact that former President Clinton is there, too, and the structure that he has of loyalty all across the country and the brand name that they have makes it very tough."
If he was bitter about it, he didn't show it.
Still, there are limits to how long party leaders will wait, given polls that show McCain has pulled even in the race for the White House.
New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, a Clinton supporter, said Friday she needs a big win in Pennsylvania, and a loss would be a "door closer."
Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, also a Clinton supporter, said recently that the candidate who trails in delegates after June 3 should quit the race. "Probably before that, once it becomes clear that one or the other is clearly _ there's no realistic chance," he told the AP in an interview.
Frank's remarks were merely more pointed than when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said a few weeks ago that he hoped the race would be over by the end of June. Or when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she thought it would be a disservice to the party for the superdelegates to overturn the verdict of the primary voters.
Congressional leaders have their own reasons for wanting an end to the nominating campaign.
They are playing a different numbers game.
Obama and Clinton are focused on 2,025, the magic number of delegates.
But 218 is the number that matters most to Pelosi, the number of seats needed to assure a continued Democratic majority in the Congress that convenes in January. Reid has visions of 60, the probably unattainable number of seats that would allow a unified Democratic majority to break any Republican-led filibuster.
For now, they and other party officials have granted Clinton a little more time to make her case, and she takes every opportunity.
Eager to capitalize on Obama's comments about small town Americans, she announced the support last Tuesday of Bill Kennedy, a commissioner in Montana's sparsely populated Yellowstone County.
Unflustered, Obama countered 24 hours later with an announcement that 25 of the 35 Democratic members of the Legislature in predominantly rural South Dakota were for him.
"I know he's a Christian. I'm a Christian," said one of them, Dale Hargens, the state House leader.
He resides in Miller, S.D., population 1,650.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
There are so many things Hillary and her henchmen can do. Such as :
1. Send out somebody like former Senator Bob Kerrey to praise Barack Hussein Obama, using his full name. Then go on to say that he’s proud that he’s Barack Hussein Obama.
2. Send out somebody to say that they are concerned about Obama’s youthful drug use. Mention the drug cocaine. Then, go on to say that while they aren’t concerned about Obama’s drug use at Hillary campaign headquarters, they are afraid that the Republicans will bring it up.
3. Send out Bill Clinton in states with big black populations and say how Jesse Jackson won such states in the primaries when he ran, and that Jesse ran a good campaign, and congratulate Obama for running a good campaign.
4. Send Hillary into a bar and take a shot and drink beer.
5. Send Hillary into a public place the day before a primary election and have her start tearing up and becoming emotional, to show us that she’s human, and it’s so personal for her.
6. The Clintons should lend their campaign money, then have the audacity to do more fundraising to pay themselves back the borrowed money.
7. The Clintons should endlessly complain that the news media is not giving Hillary a fair hearing. Then, if Obama and liberals complain about tough questions in a debate, Hillary can come in and say that the presidency is the toughest job in the world and you can’t complain or be a wimp.
8. They should consider a campaign that they could call “The Hillary I Know”. Send her mother out there to say that Hillary was always such a caring good girl who wants to help people. Set up a website with testimonials from actual real people who say Hillary has helped them.
9. Hillary’s image is way too serious. She should laugh out loud more often when she’s on those “Meet the Press” type shows. She should laugh to show that the questions are beneath her, and also to show that she has emotions just like a human being.
10. If she wins a state primary or caucus, blow it out of proportion and crow how it indicates that she can win the general election because she wins certain states. If Obama wins any state or caucus, minimize the importance by saying such states aren’t important, or that caucuses don’t represent the will of the voters, etc.
Media keeping it quiet??....There’s a lot of delegates in Puerto Rico and I believe Hillary is heavily favored there.
A couple things we know is clinton will not withdraw,superdelegates are in no hurry to end this,they are getting money from both dems,this is going to the convention in August.
Yeah, she could do all that, but she’s just too nice and lady-like and stuff.
Before I could get to the remote to change the channel, I just saw her bloviating while scratching her face with her finger, getting titters from whatever crowd of Hillbots she was addressing.
This dem primary has been SO entertaining! I hope it goes all the way to a total meltdown in Denver this summer.
In a way it’s fun to watch this Democrat civil war. But even if the victim is Hillary, it’s disgusting to see the way AP thinks it can lay down the law, tell everyone what to do, and disguise it as a news article.
Who told AP that it was their job as advocates to hurry up the Democrat primary campaign and throw it to the candidate they prefer?
The aps’ wet dream is to end the dems infighting,quite unlike their reports from Iraq.
If he doesn’t have enough delegates to win the nomination outright then there is no reason for Hillary to drop out.
No reason except that the foreigners George Soros, Teresa Heinz-Kerry and the other owners of the Democratic party want Obama as the nominee and want Hillary to be a good little girl and STFD and STFU so they can have their Nuremberg style party rally instead of a true convention. They want Obama because he is ideologically “pure” and most importantly Obama is much more controllable then Hillary, that is why they tossed her under the bus.
The problem is that the Clintons both know how to play the game, and they both know that if Obama doesn’t have enough delegates to win on the first ballot he doesn’t have jack. They also know that they really are not that far behind and it will come down to the superdelegates. If, by the time the convention rolls around, Obama is so damaged that only a fool or a SorosStooge still thinks he can win the Presidency they know that Hillary stands a very good chance of getting the nomination. We all know how the Clintons roll, what are the odds that most of Obama’s dirty laundry is not out in the open for all to see by the time the convention rolls around? Pretty good I would imagine. They also know that Obama is an arrogant POS who is easily rattled and doesn’t think on his feet well which will lead to him making some big mistakes in response to his dirty laundry. That will be like throwing gas on a fire.
No, Hillary is smart to stay until the convention, because she has a very good chance of winning the nomination. Combine the above with a credential fight and the only way she does not get the nomination is if the “fix” is in and heaven help the Democrats if they make it very obvious that they have ‘fixed” the convention against her. It will split the party and do not be a bit surprised if she endorses McCain while airing the “dirty laundry” of the Democratic party leaders and owners.
What purpose would all that serve? It would either force out the more radical elements of the party and the ownership or it would destroy the party in it’s current form and the party that would rise from those ashes would be one that the Clintons control. A party that would be a more “centrist” party, a more “electable” party.
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