Posted on 04/17/2008 8:17:30 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
The Conference Board announced today that U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in March.
(Excerpt) Read more at conference-board.org ...
Assuming the slowdown in the U.S. economy will be characterized as a recession (i.e., negative trend in income, production, employment and sales), as opposed to a mere slowdown, three months running of upward movement in the index of leading indicates has always foretold a reovery (or, in a mere slowdown, a return to normal growth).
Potentially, this uptick is of enormous consequence not only for the economy, but for the upcoming election. In past elections, the performance of the economy during the prior six months has been a strong predictor as to whether the incumbent party retains the White House or is replaced by the party out of power.
Good news on the economic front, combined with continued good news from Iraq (and the possibility of the announcement of additional troop reductions and the continued reconfiguration of U.S. military presence there to one of support) could be crucial for the ability of McCain to win, or even to win big in the fall.
Furthermore, while the overall trend of the economy doesn't mean that the housing sector will recover, recovering of the housing sector will be helped by a positive overall trend.
If the price of oil continues to rise, though, we are still going to be in big trouble. I personally am not very optimistic at this point. I DEARLY hope that I’m proven wrong but I see bad times ahead.
Interesting.
Further more, oil will hit at least $125 / brl by Memorial Day ($4.25-$4.50 / gal national average), the banks have negative reserves, credit is extremely tight, manufacturing is down, retail chain stores are folding, and farmers are paying %250 more in fertilizer than 2 years ago.
Food will continue to go up this summer, especially meat as a result.
We are already driving less and all levels of government are drawing up proposals for huge tax increase immediately after the Nov. election..not to mention, shamnesty will be in place by this time next spring.
The net effect of the sub-prime mess is 50% less than what is being reported.
Our economy cannot be sustained at the current price for oil, let alone oil at 125+.
Businesses have not yet fully passed on their increased fuel prices, IMO. That will be the next shoe to drop.
The US economy has been the tide that lifts the other boats. I'll be interested to see what happens when we're no longer able to be that rising tide.
The price of transport fuel in the European Union is substantially higher than in the US and they’ve been kicking our economic ass.
?
For the last year or so, maybe.
The price of oil is more a result of, rather than a cause of macroeconomic activity.
In the short-run, and with some notable exceptions, the price of oil reflects the interaction of the global demand for oil and an inelastic supply of oil.
Therefore, as the global economy (as a whole) increases the demand for oil, its price rises. The price rise does tend to shunt (or dampen) the groth of the global economy, but the price rise doesn’t cause a downturn.
In the long-run, there are different and mostly beneficial consequences to a rise in the price of oil; e.g., economies in the use of oil due to conservation, to greater efficiencies due to technological advances, to increased production of oil, and to the development of alternate sources of energy.
As long as we don’t attempt to regulate the price of oil, or control the supply of oil, as we did prior to the deregulation of oil under President Reagan, then we won’t have the disruptions to our economy that we suffered under President Carter during the 1970s.
Sure, most of us would like the price of oil to be lower (and, for that matter, the prices of all things other than the things we produce), but as long as its price is determined in the marketplace, we’ll do o.k.
Good luck with that:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8
or
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120831164167818299.html
Bankers Cast Doubt On Key Rate Amid Crisis - banks lying/understating about their interbank loan rates, upon which loan rate resets are calculated.
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