Posted on 04/16/2008 5:44:41 AM PDT by Abathar
BERLIN (AFP) - A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.
Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.
NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.
The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.
Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.
If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.
Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.
The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.
The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."
Gosh, hope it doesn’t screw up my Directv satellite signal.
“Our Germans are better than their Germans.”
Funny what friction does - too bad there’s none in space.
Space ping.
Just because it hits a satellite, the does NOT mean that it will automatically hit Earth on it's return trip.
Apophis has to pass through a relatively small orbital keyhole in order to hit Earth on its return trip. Hitting a satellite MAY make Apophis pass through the keyhole but would probably make no difference at all.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Oh man...retirement’s going to suck!
Take a small change in trajectory, compound its effect to the trajectory of the meteor, over 25 years and trillions of miles, the small change just might be enough to bring the meteor to collide with the earth.
It needn’t take a satellite to do this. The original meteor could just as well strike another space fragment, in some unknown nether-region of the Solar System.
Kids like him wear pocket protectors and hide dirty pictures under their mattresses.......
When they first got an idea of where Apophis was headed, it was going to hit in the Pacific, 600km West of Malibu. Then they revised it to miss.
But wait, seven years later...it was going to be visible in Northern Europe as it comes inside the orbits of satellites (which I take they meant "geostationary").
The reporter also missed the opportunity to instill some paraskavedekatriaphobia in people.
Yep, they are also the ones that pull up to the class reunion with an incredibly hot blond and an even hotter car.
The dumb jocks who were the ones tormenting them growing up just can’t figure out why life is so cruel, them working at a car wash and living in a trailer while the geek gets it all.
Yep, they are also the ones that pull up to the class reunion with an incredibly hot blond and an even hotter car.
The dumb jocks who were the ones tormenting them growing up just can’t figure out why life is so cruel, them working at a car wash and living in a trailer while the geek gets it all.
“paraskavedekatriaphobia”
If I remember correctly, it is to hit earth on 13 April 2036. I am not filling out my IRS forms early that year.
The asteroid must still pass through a very small orbital keyhole to even have a chance to hit Earth.
A delta V of only a few cm/sec would be more than enough to make it hit or miss Earth if it occurs at the right point.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Exactly. Or, one should be able to pose that the act of hitting a satellite would serve the purpose of steering the astroid [sic] away from the earth on its next go-round.
I'm inclined to think that a light-as-possible man-made satellite would deflect a substantial asteroid [non-sic!] about as much as I would be by a ping pong ball.
If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.
So, if it even taps a satellite, it is guaranteed to hit the earth 7 years later. No chance for an inconsequential strike? No chance that a trajectory that would have caused it to hit earth later will be changed by a satellite strike into a miss?
Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.
It only has a tiny chance of hitting the earth because we don't know its location and velocity precisely, but we do know that it will hit the Atlantic? Is there any chance that bumping off a satellite will cause it to hurtle into the Pacific?
Since the difference between a 1/450 chance and a 1/45000 chance is almost exactly 1/450, that means (even assuming the goofy assumption that a satellite strike means guaranteed doom in 7 years) that there is a 1 in 450 chance of hitting a satellite on its 2029 pass at 32,500 kilometers. Sorry, that's in the range of only the geosynchronous satellites. There aren't that many up there, they are hundreds of miles apart, and the asteroid would have to cross the equatorial plane right at the 35786 km geosynchronous orbital location.
Sorry, I smell news hype more than actual news. Now, if the predicted orbit shows it passing 35786 km right at the equator, then it could be more trouble.
“Don’t ya just love government run science?”
This is not our fathers’ NASA.
True. I'm just wondering, though, did the lad discern between English and reverse English spin, a satellite whomp on the nose or on the side, and the difference between a bounce and a stick, which would add mass to the rock and further affect it?
Either the story has oversimplified the case, or the boy and NASA have.
LOL! Talk about your irony... An article talking about miscalculations contains this whopper....
Based on the size reported, and a density of 10 g/cm3 (which accounts for "mostly iron, with a little iridium"), I get a mass of about 172x109 kg ... which is about 172 million tonnes.
But hey ... what's a factor of 1000 between friends?
Why? Am I missing something?
Carolyn
Does this mean its time to party like it’s 2029? :-)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.